Favourites never win the Brownlow Medal right?
Whilst that isn’t completely true, there is some accuracy to that statement.
Of the last 16 favourites, exactly eight have won the Brownlow, making it a 50/50 chance.
So, rather than taking a chance on a short-priced favourite, just remember Matt Priddis in 2014 who paid $41, or Chris Judd in 2010 who started the night as a $21 long shot.
MORE: Brownlow Medal: Will Daicos defy the betting favourite curse?
Lachie Neale in 2023 paid $13, while Dane Swan in 2011 was a $14 outsider on the night he broke the all-time votes record.
This year there are four players under the $10 mark with Nick Daicos ($2.50), Bailey Smith ($5), Jordan Dawson ($6.50), and Noah Anderson ($7), according to Sportsbet.
If you believe none of those players will win, or you are looking for some value for your trifectas, here is a look at some of the best outsiders for 2025.
Hugh McCluggage ($81)
Brisbane has been one of the most Brownlow-friendly teams of the past five years, with Lachie Neale winning two Brownlows in that span, whilst other stars, such as Dayne Zorko and Josh Dunkley also always poll well.
This year has been the year that McCluggage has established himself as Brisbane’s most important player, and it may swing his way come Brownlow night.
The AFL Brownlow Predictor currently has McCluggage on 28 votes in fifth place, yet his price is well beyond that.
With Brisbane winning 16 games and Neale having a slightly down year by his standards (and missing the final three games of the year), expect McCluggage to secure votes in nearly every win and be in the top ten.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ($51)
The St Kilda superstar came to life this season and established himself as one of the premier midfielders in the competition.
His late-season heroics might just get him a Brownlow.
Don't be worried if Wanganeen-Milera is nowhere near the top ten come the mid-season break.
Sit back, relax and watch him come charging home in the final 10 weeks of the season, where he is expected to poll maximum votes in six of the final eight matches.
If Wanganeen-Milera can pick up a few votes early in the season, he could surprise the count and run over the top of everyone.
Caleb Serong ($67)
Fourth in 2024 with 28 votes and eighth in 2023 with 24 votes, Serong has established himself as one of the elite vote-getters in the AFL.
This season, Fremantle took their games to new heights, locking in 16 wins, their most since 2017.
And it was Serong who led his team with 27.5 disposals per game.
If Serong can improve on last year's stellar 28 votes, he will be a near certainty for a top five finish and may even sneak home with the Brownlow himself.