Brisbane know the dangers of Geelong’s midfield power and slick ball movement, but a new stat highlights one area in particular that should have them bracing for impact in Saturday’s AFL Grand Final.
Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne has revealed that the Cats’ dominance in time-on periods, what he calls ‘Dread Time’, has been unlike anything seen in recent years. Once the clock ticks past 20 minutes, Geelong have outscored their rivals by a margin that dwarfs every other contender.
Geelong’s killer instinct late in quarters
“If you’re playing against Geelong, you are dreading the time-on period of quarters. The time-on period is 20 minutes plus on the clock,” Hoyne said on SEN Sportsday.
“So, in terms of points differential this year in time on of quarters for the whole season, these are the top five teams. GWS are fifth at +144 points, Adelaide are +155, Gold Coast are +158, and the Bulldogs are second with +166. Geelong… +422 points. They are 260 points better than any other team in time on!”
Hoyne stressed that such numbers are no fluke: “That is the fifth-best record in Champion Data's history. Do you know what's happened to the four better teams? Flag, flag, flag and the Cats in ’08 who stuffed it up.”
The trend has only intensified in finals. Against Brisbane in the Qualifying Final, Geelong piled on 58 points to 21 in time-on, before smashing Hawthorn 56 to 2 in the Preliminary Final.
As Hoyne put it: “We watch them on the outside and sit there all year watching them, and you think this is just amazing to watch. You look at this and go, how do you go with them?”
Brisbane will have to find that answer quickly when the ball bounces at 2:30 pm (AEST) on Saturday.