Could Nick Daicos yet again join the list of Brownlow Medal favourites that fail to win the award?
There has always been a saying that the “favourite never wins the Brownlow,” and although that isn't completely true, favourites have historically struggled.
Nick Daicos has arrived at Crown Palladium as the favourite the last two years, yet he has left empty-handed on both nights.
At the time of writing, Daicos is priced with Sportsbet as the favourite at a relatively short price of $2.50.
MORE: Brownlow Medal: Is a record set to be broken again?
Let’s see how that stacks up against the last 16 Brownlow Medal favourites.
| Year and favourite | Odds | Finishing position |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 - N Daicos | $2.50 | ? |
| 2024 - N Daicos | $2.50 | 2nd |
| 2023 - N Daicos & M Bontempelli | $2.75 | 3rd & 2nd |
| 2022 - L Neale | $3.00 | 2nd |
| 2021 - O Wines | $2.75 | 1st |
| 2020 - L Neale | $3.00 | 1st |
| 2019 - P Dangerfield | $2.60 | 2nd |
| 2018 - T Mitchell | $1.60 | 1st |
| 2017 - D Martin | $1.10 | 1st |
| 2016 - P Dangerfield | $1.15 | 1st |
| 2015 - N Fyfe | $2.00 | 1st |
| 2014 - J Selwood | $2.50 | 8th |
| 2013 - G Ablett | $1.90 | 1st |
| 2012 - J Watson | $4.00 | 1st |
| 2011 - C Judd | $2.00 | 6th |
| 2010 - D Swan | $1.80 | 3rd |
Of the last 16 favourites, exactly eight have won the Brownlow, making it a 50/50 chance.
But this is where it becomes interesting for Daicos.
Of those favourites, seven of them have been priced at $2 or less, resulting in five victories.
The rest of the favourites?
They were all priced at $2.10 or more, and only three of those nine were victorious.
So, recent history suggests that the favourite is a 50/50 chance to win the Brownlow, but you are only a 30% chance to win if you are priced over $2.10.
But it is not all bad news for Daicos, and he is a deserved favourite for this count.
Last year, Daicos’s 38 votes would have won every single Brownlow Medal count in history, only to be pipped by Patrick Cripps’s record-breaking 45 votes.
Despite the struggling history of $2-plus favourites, if Daicos can replicate last seasons heroics - he will be extremely hard to beat.