It is always easy to get stuck in the day-to-day grind of an NFL season, but it is important at times to take a step back and take stock of where things are from a larger picture. So, through two games, we are going to analyze the updated Super Bowl odds, look through the market and see where some of the value lies with NFL betting favorites, longshots, and everything in-between.
Latest Super Bowl Odds: Top Four Favorites
| FanDuel Odds | DraftKings Odds | BetMGM Odds | |
| Bills | +500 | +400 | +425 |
| Ravens | +500 | +475 | +500 |
| Eagles | +700 | +750 | +700 |
| Packers | +700 | +750 | +750 |
If we were to group teams together based on tiers, the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens would be in their own tier at the top, followed by the Eagles and Packers. Behind them, there are a couple teams clumped together with similar odds that would make up this theoretical third tier (Chargers, Chiefs, Lions, 49ers).
It is interesting to see two AFC teams at the top, followed by two NFC teams, and somehow the Kansas City Chiefs, who have been to three straight Super Bowls, are not among this top four. It makes sense when you consider how the season has started for the Chiefs, but it is still jarring to see after what we have witnessed Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs do since he became a full-time starter in 2018.
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Best Contender Super Bowl Bet: Philadelphia Eagles (+750) DraftKings
Among the top four contenders, it is hard to go against the Philadelphia Eagles, who have started 3-0 for the third time in four seasons, and have not lost a game that A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts have started and finished together since 2023. They only lost three games last year, and of the three A.J. Brown missed two of them due to a hamstring injury, and then third loss was a game in which Jalen Hurts was knocked out in the first quarter due to a concussion.
It is not to say that everything has been perfect in Philadelphia during this 3-0 start, but the scary part is their offense has looked dreadful for 80% of the six halves of football they have played while their defense still has some things to work out, notably at the second cornerback position, and yet they have beaten their division rival Cowboys, last year’s Super Bowl runner up in the Chiefs, and a Rams team that made the Divisional Round of the playoffs last year.
It is easy to forget now, but last year the Eagles had a slow, 2-2 start on the year where their defense did not look good through the majority of those four games. Then, Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio made some adjustments, and the Eagles ended up with the best defense in the NFL last year. It would not be a surprise to see the Eagles defense round more into form as this season goes along as well.
Offensively, the Eagles offense can seem like watching paint dry, but we saw them put it together in the two most important games last year (NFC Championship & Super Bowl), before going bombs away in the second half against the Rams and coming back from down 26-7. Even with a tough schedule this year, the Eagles will need to be de-throned before taking another team over them.
Favorite Tier Three Super Bowl Bet: Los Angeles Chargers (+1500) FanDuel
The Los Angeles Chargers have admittedly been an early favorite to make the Super Bowl for what seems like the last 15 years, but it does seem as though something is different about them this year. Quarterback Justin Herbert seems to have taken a step forward, and head coach John Harbaugh has done wonders with the overall make-up of the team.
The Chargers will always be judged on how they perform in the post-season, of course, and last year’s debacle against the Texans was not super awe-inspiring, but they have been fantastic through three games this year.
Not only are the Chargers 3-0, but all three wins have come against their division opponents in the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos. For an AFC West that was supposed to be one of the two hardest divisions in football, it is a good start.
What is so encouraging about this start for the Chargers is how in-sync their passing game looks. According to DVOA, the Chargers have the second-best passing game in the NFL (this only includes Weeks 1 & 2, as Week 3 stats have not yet updated yet.) What is even more interesting, and a complete 180 from last year’s team, is the Chargers have the third-highest neutral pass rate in the NFL at 67.7%.
With a passing game that looks fantastic, and an opportunistic defense led by defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, the Chargers are primed to make a run in the playoffs this year.
Best Longshot Super Bowl Bet: Los Angeles Rams (+2200) DraftKings
Of the teams not yet mentioned and outside of the top eight favorites overall, the LA Rams could easily make a Super Bowl push this year. They were so close last year, being the only team that lost within one score against the Eagles in the playoffs last year and have had a good start to the year this year.
It was a tough loss against the Eagles on Sunday, but the reality is the Rams dominated most of that game. For context, the Rams scored on six straight drives in this game, and in that span the Eagles had six straight drives in which they failed to even record a first down. The issue in that game, of course, was the Rams had two field goals get blocked, and they settled for field goals in too many situations.
The Rams’ defense is led by a ferocious pass rush that can make life hard on any QB, while their offense will only go as far as Matthew Stafford’s health will take them. He had back-injury scare throughout most of training camp, but Stafford has been fantastic at least through the early part of this season. If he can manage to stay healthy, the Rams offense should be among the best in the NFL with two high-end WRs in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
For +2200 odds at DraftKings, they are worth a sprinkle.