Two of the best NFL teams will meet on Sunday Night Football. We analyze the matchup and sportsbook odds to make our favorite Bills-Ravens picks.
- Two AFC titans, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, clash in a Sunday Night Football opener with significant playoff implications, even in Week 1.
- The betting line has flipped, with the Baltimore Ravens now favored on the road, while sharp money reportedly leans towards the underdog Buffalo Bills and the under.
- With a forecast calling for rain and wind, this physical matchup could be decided by quarterback play under pressure, red zone efficiency, and which defense can create game-changing turnovers.
A blockbuster AFC showdown kicks off Sunday Night Football as two of the conference's premier quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, lead their teams into a high-stakes Week 1 battle. The Baltimore Ravens travel to Orchard Park for a rematch of last season's thrilling Divisional Round playoff game, a contest the Buffalo Bills narrowly won, adding another layer of intensity to this rivalry. Both teams enter the 2025 season with Super Bowl aspirations, making this early-season test a crucial barometer for their championship credentials.
Allen is coming off a stellar 2024 campaign where he threw for 3,731 yards with a 28-6 TD-INT ratio, adding another 12 touchdowns on the ground. His dual-threat capabilities will be tested against a formidable Ravens defense.
On the other sideline, Jackson looks to build on a season where he posted an incredible 119.4 QB rating, tossing 41 touchdowns to just four interceptions while leading an offense that averaged over 30 points per game. This prime-time clash will feature elite talent on both sides of the ball and could very well be a preview of a future AFC Championship game.
This Bills-Ravens betting preview will dissect the betting odds, analyze key matchups, and provide data-driven player prop picks to help you make informed wagers on this marquee matchup.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds
| Bet Type | Ravens | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-118) |
| Moneyline | -120 | +100 |
| Total Points | Over 50.5 (-110) | Under 50.5 (-110) |
Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook
The odds present a near toss-up, with the Ravens installed as slight road favorites. The Bills have been dominant at home, winning their last 10 games at Highmark Stadium and going 5-1 ATS in their last six home contests. You can make your spread and moneyline wagers with the BetMGM bonus code TSN150.
However, the Ravens have been a strong road team, covering the spread in three of their last four games as road favorites (3-1 ATS). The high total of 50.5 points reflects the offensive firepower on both sides, but the projected wind and rain, coupled with a history of low-scoring affairs between these two (the under is 4-0-1 in their last five meetings), suggest value on the under.
Odds Movement & Analysis
This betting line has seen significant movement, flipping from an opening line that favored the Bills at -1.5 to the current line where the Ravens are -1.5 favorites. This three-point swing is substantial and indicates a shift in market sentiment. The moneyline has followed suit, opening with the Bills as -125 favorites and now sitting with the Ravens at -120. The total has also seen movement, dropping a full point from 51.5 to 50.5.
Several factors are driving this movement. First, the weather forecast has become less favorable, with increasing chances of wind and rain, which typically suppresses scoring and has pushed the total down.
Second, while both teams are relatively healthy, key injuries for the Bills, particularly on the offensive line, may have swayed bettors toward the Ravens' punishing defensive front. Reports suggest that while the majority of public bets are on the Ravens, some sharp money has come in on the Bills as home underdogs, creating a classic public vs. sharp money showdown.
Ravens vs. Bills – Key Matchups to Watch
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Quarterback vs Pass Defense
This game pits two MVP-caliber quarterbacks against a pair of top-tier defenses. Last season, Allen commanded an offense that averaged 30.8 points per game, while Jackson led the Ravens to 30.5 PPG. Allen will face a Ravens secondary that allowed a QB rating of just 91.1 last year and boasts elite playmakers like Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey.
The Ravens' defense, which generated 54 sacks in 2024, will test a Bills offensive line that is starting a backup at center. Conversely, Jackson faces a Bills defense that led the league with a +22 turnover differential. The key will be whether Buffalo's pass rush, which recorded 39 sacks last season, can contain Jackson in the pocket and force him into difficult throws in windy conditions.
Running Game vs. Run Defense
The ground game will be pivotal, especially with the weather forecast. The Ravens have added a new dimension to their already league-best rushing attack (187.6 yards/game in 2024) with the signing of Derrick Henry. He will test a Bills run defense that was solid but not spectacular, allowing 115.5 rushing yards per game.
For the Bills, James Cook will spearhead a rushing attack that averaged 131.2 yards per game against a fearsome Ravens front seven. Baltimore's defense was elite against the run, allowing a league-low 80.1 yards per game and just 3.6 yards per carry. The battle in the trenches between these units could determine time of possession and control of the game.
Pass Catchers vs. Secondary
Both teams have revamped their receiving corps. The Bills will rely on rookie Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid to challenge the Ravens' physical secondary. The matchup between the big-bodied Coleman and the aggressive Marlon Humphrey will be one to watch. For the Ravens, Zay Flowers and perennial Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews are Jackson's top targets.
Offensive Line vs. Pass Rush
This matchup heavily favors the Ravens. Their defense thrives on creating pressure, and they will look to exploit a potential weakness at the center of the Bills' offensive line. If the Ravens can generate interior pressure, it could disrupt Allen's timing and force him into mistakes.
The Ravens' offensive line, which allowed only 24 sacks last season, is one of the league's best and will face a Bills pass rush led by Greg Rousseau. Keeping Jackson clean is paramount to Baltimore's success.
Sunday Night Football Passing Props
| Player | Passing Yards | Passing TDs | Completions | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 229.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 1.5 (O -133 | U +105) | 20.5 (O -105 | U -125) | 0.5 (O +105 | U -139) |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 228.5 (O -115 | U -118) | 1.5 (O -149 | U +115) | 19.5 (O +100 | U -133) | 0.5 (O +110 | U -141) |
With windy and wet conditions expected, both passing yardage props seem high. Allen averaged 219.5 passing yards per game last season, and Jackson averaged 237.4.
Given the elite defenses and weather, the under on both QBs' passing yards is an intriguing play. Allen's interception prop at plus money is also tempting, as he may be forced to take risks against a ball-hawking Ravens secondary.
Rushing & Receiving Props
| Player | Rushing Yards | Receiving Yards | Receptions | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 78.5 (O -111 | U -118) | 4.5 (O -120 | U -110) | 1.5 (O +182 | U -250) | Yes -159 | No +125 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 53.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 10.5 (O -115 | U -118) | 1.5 (O -152 | U +118) | Yes +100 | No -130 |
| Zay Flowers (BAL) | N/A | 57.5 (O -118 | U -115) | 4.5 (O -110 | U -120) | Yes +175 | No -230 |
| Keon Coleman (BUF) | N/A | 34.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 2.5 (O -121 | U -107) | Yes +207 | No -280 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | N/A | 46.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 3.5 (O -154 | U +115) | Yes +172 | No -225 |
Henry's rushing total of 78.5 yards is a focal point. The Bills' run defense is solid, but Henry is a workhorse who could see heavy volume in bad weather.
Flowers' receiving line of 57.5 yards seems achievable, especially if he draws favorable matchups with Douglas out. For the Bills, James Cook faces the league's best run defense, making his under 53.5 rushing yards a strong consideration.
Ravens vs. Bills Fina Prediction
This AFC heavyweight bout promises to be a physical, hard-fought contest where every yard will be earned. The key to this game lies in how the quarterbacks handle the pressure from elite defenses in adverse weather conditions.
Allen's ability to extend plays with his legs will be crucial against a Ravens defense that excels at getting to the quarterback. His rushing prop of 33.5 yards looks appealing, as he will likely need to scramble to move the chains. However, the Bills' offensive line, particularly the interior, is a major concern against Baltimore's ferocious front.
For the Ravens, the game plan will likely center on establishing Henry and the ground game to control the clock and keep the Bills' explosive offense off the field. Jackson's efficiency in the play-action passing game will be critical to exploiting a Bills secondary that may be without its top corner. The Ravens have been exceptional as favorites, going 5-1 straight up and ATS in their last six such games. They also perform well in primetime, covering the spread in nine of their last 12 night games (9-3 ATS).
Ultimately, the weather and the matchup in the trenches favor the Ravens. Their superior run defense and ability to generate pressure on the quarterback give them a slight edge. The most compelling trend is the history between these two teams: the under has hit in their last five matchups (0-4-1). With wind, rain, and two top-five defenses, this game projects as a low-scoring slugfest.
The Ravens' ability to control the line of scrimmage and lean on their ground game should be the difference-maker in a tight contest.
Picks:
- Against the Spread: Baltimore Ravens -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Under 50.5 (-110)
- Player Prop: Josh Allen Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Public Betting Splits
Market intelligence suggests a classic split between the public and professional NFL bettors. The majority of public money and tickets are backing the Ravens to cover the -1.5 spread, likely influenced by the revenge narrative and their strong recent form.
However, reports indicate that sharp money has been hitting the Buffalo Bills +1.5, seeing value in a dominant team getting points at home. The total is also seeing a divide, with the public leaning towards the over, while sharps are heavily betting the under, aligning with the historical trends and weather forecast.