File this under things you didn’t expect to be saying: after Week 4, either the Baltimore Ravens or Kansas City Chiefs are going to be 1-3 to start the NFL season. Yet, barring a tie, that’s what we’re in for when these two powerhouses – still each in the Top 5 of the latest Super Bowl odds – collide on Sunday at Arrowhead.
Some urgency among star talent and star teams (that’s Baltimore) should be helpful as you fill out your prop bets for this one. Check below for our favorite Ravens vs Chiefs picks. Use the bet365 bonus code TSN365 to lock-in a $200 bonus for these wagers.
Derrick Henry Over 78.5 yards rushing
For the third time in three weeks, and for the second time in the clutch moments of the fourth quarter, Ravens back Derrick Henry coughed up the ball against the Lions, a fumble that would help sink the Ravens to 1-2 to start the year.
Henry was beside himself on the field and postgame in the locker room. Since tearing up the Bills in Week 1 to the tune of 169 yards rushing and two touchdowns, Henry has totaled 73 yards in the next two games combined, with one rushing TD.
That is, by far, his worst two-game rushing stretch since joining the Ravens last year. Since joining Baltimore, Henry’s longest ‘slump’ (sub 100 yards rushing) has been two games in the regular season. The three times that’s happened, he’s bounced back with at least 100 yards in the next game.
That’s a gettable line considering Henry’s lofty numbers. He’s also topped that line in three of the last four meetings against the Chiefs.
Juju Smith-Schuster Over 22.5 receiving yards
This Chiefs passing attack has been tough to watch the first three weeks of the season. They should be getting some reinforcements, though, as Xavier Worthy is expected back for this one, giving them another speedster to at least threaten to take the top off the defense.
That should be welcomed news for veteran Juju Smith-Schuster, who is exclusively an inside and underneath slot receiver, doing what Travis Kelce apparently can’t do anymore: get open.
JSS has two games this year where he’s had 55 receiving yards. The only Under he’s hit was in Week 2 against Philly, where he was targeted three times, making one grab for five yards.
Baltimore’s pass defense is currently Swiss cheese, allowing a whopping 266.3 yards per contest, though, to be fair, they have been diced up by two of the best teams in the league in Buffalo and Detroit.There should be enough room for Smith-Schuster to crack that light receiving line.
Patrick Mahomes longest completion Over 34.5 yards
This is one sneaky-good bet hiding in plain sight. For all their passing woes (and there are many), Patrick Mahomes has made it a point to take shots down the field.
They haven’t been greatly successful, but Mahomes had a game-high distance completion of 49 yards in each of the first two games and came awfully close to topping this set total in Week 3, missing it by two yards. Worthy is an additional burner on the field to Tyquan Thornton, who is already showcasing as the team’s premier deep threat.
Baltimore has given up just one pass over 35 yards this year, on a James Cook catch and run in Week 1, but this defense is uncharacteristically soft and have given up a ton of chuck plays. The prevailing defensive strategy in recent years has been to load the box to discourage the run and dare Mahomes to try and throw over the top. After their win over the Giants, it feels like Mahomes seems to have finally shown the willingness to launch the deep ball and put that strategy to bed.
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