After a fun Thursday night game between the Commanders and Packers, we are now on to a full NFL Sunday betting slate with a bunch of games to consider for our best bets. The schedule is headlined by a Super Bowl rematch between the Eagles and Chiefs. Below, we explain out NFL Week 2 best bets.
| NFL Week 2 Pick | Odds |
| Ja'Marr Chase Over 85.5 Receiving Yards | -111 on DraftKings |
| Brenton Strange Over 31.5 Receiving Yards | -110 on BetMGM |
| Cowboys -4.5 | -110 on DraftKings |
Chase Gets Going in Week 2
After a quiet Week 1 performance, we are banking on Ja’Marr Chase breaking out in a big way in Week 2. Unfortunately, the Bengals are notorious for starting slow, as Chase has not gone over 62 receiving yards in Week 1 each of the last three years. This is classic Bengals, and not something that we are expecting to continue in Week 2.
This is a strategy that we like to call "fade recent results," which is essentially look at what happened last week, and expect the opposite. Essentially, we are betting on positive regression for Chase, who can be argued as one of the best receivers in the NFL. Last year, he went over this number in seven of the last eight games, including six straight to end the season. One of those games he had a remarkable 264 receiving yards against the Ravens.
We all know the type of talent Chase and Bengals QB Joe Burrow have, and this is the matchup that he should be able to dominate against the Jaguars. Last year, the Jaguars allowed the most passing yards in the entire NFL and allowed the highest yards per completion as well.
While they got the win in Week 1, we still saw Panthers top receiver Tetairoa McMillan have a decent game against the Jaguars with 68 receiving yards on five receptions. Bet on Chase to go off on Sunday with NFL betting bonuses on DraftKings.
Strange Involved in Jaguars Passing Attack
Sticking in this same game, we like Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange to get some action in this one as well. Strange went over this number in Week 1, but looking into it a lot of his advanced metrics looked good, which is why we are going against the fade of recent results strategy for this play.
He played 72% of the snaps and ran 60% of the routes, which are healthy numbers for Strange. He caught all four of his targets for 59 yards, with a solid role overall. He ran 50% of his routes out of the slot and 50% inline, and the Bengals in general are a fantastic matchup for TEs. We just saw them give up a total of 100 yards to TEs last week, with Harold Fannon Jr and David Njoku combing for 100 yards, which was the second-most of Week 1.
Last year, they allowed the third-most receiving yards to TEs, and the second-most in 2023. In general, Trevor Lawerence loves to throw to the TE, which was Evan Engram the past two years, but the guess here is it is now going to Strange in that role.
Lawrence has only played the Bengals once in his career, and Engram went off in that game for 9 receptions, 82 yards and a TD. While Strange is most likely not going to do all that, but he is set up for a good game Sunday.
Cowboys Win & Cover vs. Giants
For this one, we are fading the Giants who looked atrocious on Sunday, and back a Cowboys team who is 0-1 but looked very good against the Eagles. Obviously, it helped that the Eagles lost their best defensive player before the game started, but you could easily make the argument that the Cowboys should have won the game.
Cowboys star WR CeeDee Lamb dropped three balls that hit him square in the hands, and then another one on 4th down which would have been a tough catch but one you expect someone like Lamb to make.
Not to mention, they also had the Miles Sanders fumble during a long drive when they were in the redzone. They looked especially good on offense, with the third-highest success rate of all Week 1 teams. On the other side, the Giants looked like a total train-wreck, especially offensively. The Giants did not score a single offensive touchdown, only scoring six total points.
It is always easy to overreact after Week 1, but keep in mind this is a Giants team that had among the worst offenses in the NFL last year, and they returned 10/11 starters and the entire coaching staff. The only move was made at QB, and it was a move to a QB that has struggled for three years now in Russell Wilson. For context, the Giants offense had the third-worst EPA/play, and the fifth-worst success rate of all offenses in Week 1.
On the other side of the ball, the Commanders moved the ball easily against the Giants defense. The Commanders offense had the highest success rate of any team in Week 1, which just measures how frequently do you produce a good play on offense, and the Commanders did it at the highest rate in the entire NFL in Week 1. Cowboys should get the job done.