It’s hard to believe, but we’ve already reached Week 7 on the NFL calendar. Underdogs have been winning outright at an extremely high rate recently, killing Survivor Poll entries left, right, and center. I expect more ‘dogs to be barking this week, and I’ve identified two with a great chance to pull off upsets at home.
NFL Upset Picks for Sunday Week 7 Gamea
Follow along with these NFL Upset Picks to take your best shot at profiting on Week 7 games with several underdog picks. These picks are spaced out between the 1:00 pm ET and 4:00 pm ET kickoff windows, so bettors can easily track the action if they follow these picks.
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Cowboys Crush Commanders
Let’s start in Dallas, where the Cowboys welcome back CeeDee Lamb. Dallas has already been one of the league’s most efficient offenses without him, ranking second in EPA per play.
Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level, boasting the third-best passing grade, while JavoteWilliams is ripping off over 5.0 yards per carry.
That spells trouble for the inconsistent Washington defense, that’s sprung multiple leaks recently. The Commanders rank 26th in yards against and 30th in yards allowed per pass.
They’re generating turnovers at the NFL’s fourth-lowest rate, and were just gashed for 145rushing yards by the Bears.
Washington should be able to find success against the Cowboys league-worst defense, but the Commanders offense isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. Jayden Daniels is anchoring a passing attack that’s averaging just 7.2 yards per attempt and 195 passing yards per game.
To make matters worse, Daniels is being sacked on nearly 8% of his dropbacks, while only four teams have a lower third-down conversion rate than Washington.
Back to Prescott, who’s owned the Commanders throughout his career. Dak is 11-2 all-time versus Washington, winning seven of his last eight starts against them. He’s posted a 27-to-5TD-to-INT rate in those 13 starts, and has been flawless at home.
In six career starts versus the Commanders at AT&T Stadium, Prescott is 6-0 with 17 TD passes and zero interceptions.
Vikings Extend Eagles Losing Streak
If you’ve been reading this column this year, you’ve surely noticed how much I like picking on the Eagles as favorites. I should have easily cashed a Rams outright ticket vs Philly back in Week 3, but was victim to one of the biggest 4th quarter collapses in NFL history.
Undeterred, I was able to cash in on Denver upsetting the defending champs two weeks later.
This week, I’m fading the Eagles once again, grabbing Minnesota to take down Jalen Hurts and Co. The Vikings are fresh off a bye and bring one of the league’s best defenses into this matchup.
Minnesota ranks second in expected points added allowed, and they are in the top five in blitz rate. That spells trouble for Hurts, who’s been a disaster when the heat is on.
Hurts has a -0.42 EPA per dropback against the blitz, one of the lowest marks in the league. He also struggles badly against a cover two scheme, and no team plays more two-high safety looks than the Vikings. Against that type of defense, Hurts ranks last among quarterbacks with a minuscule 35% success rate.
I know what you’re thinking, well, Philly will just run the ball down their throats. Good luck.
Saquon Barkley is getting contacted behind the line of scrimmage at one of the league’s highest rates and is averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry. The explosiveness of his game has disappeared as well, as he’s yet to record a 20+ yard run.
On the other side of the ball, Carson Wentz should be able to move the chains against this underwhelming Philly defense. Wentz has been significantly more efficient than J.J. McCarthy behind center, while the Eagles D is banged up.
Stud defensive lineman Jalen Carter is dealing with a lingering injury and is still just practicing on a limited basis. Philly just lost pass rusher Za’Darius Smith to retirement, weakening an already under-performing front four. The Eagles are generating sacks on only 4% of their pass rushes, meaning Wentz will have plenty of time to find Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison deep down the field.
You can make a serious case that Philly should be 2-4, instead of 4-2. They’ve lost back-to-back outings, scoring just 17 points in both, and I’m betting Minnesota holds them below 20 points as well en route to an upset win.