We’re back with another pair of upset NFL picks for Week 5. If you remember, two weeks ago, we had our hearts ripped out by the Rams, who blew a 20-point lead as an underdog in Philadelphia.
We also lost with the Jets that week, who fought back to take the lead in the final two minutes in Tampa as a dog, only to surrender a game-winning field goal as time expired.
This week, we’re going back to the well, betting against that same Eagles team. No NFL club has been luckier than Philly to this point, and I’m betting on some serious regression against the Broncos.
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NFL Upset Picks for Week 5 Games
Broncos Pull Stunner in Philly
Statistically, Denver is the better team on both sides of the ball. The Broncos rank higher in expected points added per play on offense, and grade out three spots higher per DVOA.
Defensively, the gap is even wider. Denver is fourth in EPA per play on defense, while the Eagles are 12th. The Broncos are third in defensive success rate, compared to 17th for Philly.
The biggest discrepancy is in their pass rush metrics. The Broncos lead the NFL in pressure rate and sacks. Philadelphia, meanwhile, ranks 20th and 28th in those two categories.
But the Eagles are 4-0, so their offense must be carrying them right? Wrong. Philly’s passing game is putrid. They don’t create explosive plays, and they don’t get the ball to A.J. Brown, their top receiver. They failed to complete a pass in the second half versus Tampa Bay last week, and finished with only 19 yards in the third and fourth quarters combined.
The Eagles run game hasn’t been much better, ranking near the bottom in success rate.
Saquon Barkley is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry in the second half of games, after averaging 6.7 yards a season ago.
Denver’s offense isn’t a world beater, but they can move the ball efficiently on the ground and in the air. The Broncos offensive line grades out first in pass blocking, while the Broncos rank in the top 10 in rushing.
Philly has been winning games by the skin of their teeth. It’s not sustainable, and it ends this week.
Jets Finally Get on the Board Over Cowboys
Has there ever been a better buy-low, sell-high spot than the Cowboys vs Jets matchup on Sunday? Dallas is coming off an incredible offensive performance to tie the Packers, while New York is off to a dismal 0-4 start.
No one wants to bet the Jets, but we should all be racing to the window to wager on them in this spot. You can make an argument that New York should be 2-2 or even 3-1. They completely dominated Pittsburgh in Week 1, lost on the last play of the game against Tampa Bay in Week 3, and then significantly outplayed Miami last week.
The Jets had a net 15% success rate over the Dolphins last Monday, and out-gained them 404 yards to 300. They were flagged 13 times for over 100 yards, and lost the turnover battle 3-0.
One of those giveaways was a fumble at the goal line, and if not for that, they would have walked out of South Beach with a victory.
The Cowboys, on the other hand, own the worst pass defense in the league, and play zone coverage at a 95% clip. Justin Fields has thrived in his career versus that type of scheme, averaging 2 yards more per completion than against man.
Dallas’ defense was also on the field for 85 snaps last weekend, and surrendered 30+ points for the third straight outing.
Offensively, the Cowboys were impressive versus Green Bay, but Dallas has extreme home/road splits this season. They’re averaging 40 points per game at home, compared to only 17 on the road.
Dak Prescott has historically performed much better inside, posting a QB rating that’s 10 points higher than outdoors, and 1.5 yards more per pass attempt.
With this game taking place outside at MetLife Stadium, expect Dallas to struggle offensively and New York to pull off the upset.