It's Week 4 of the NFL season, and my upset picks have a pair of 3-0 teams (including the champs, nonetheless) getting all they can handle by some worthy upstarts. Somehow, the books have the Raiders, who’ve slumped in two straight losses as the betting favorite against the Bears. Yes, those Bears that looked really good in getting a win last week.
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Bears +1.5 over Raiders
It would seem that the first order of business would be to talk about how porous the Raiders’ defense was after getting shredded by Marcus Mariota and the Commanders 41-24 last week. Instead, let’s talk about a crumbling offensive line that can neither hold up to let Geno Smith throw a pass nor allow prized Round 1 pick Ashton Jeanty to take a handoff before getting buried less than a second after possessing the ball.
Against Washington, Smith was pressured on 64% of his dropbacks, the highest in the NFL in a game this season. The result: 4-for-9 passing for 32 yards while getting sacked five times.
Now the Las Vegas Raiders get a Chicago Bears team riding a ton of confidence after taking apart the Dallas Cowboys 31-14. It was arguably Caleb Williams’ best game as a pro, throwing for 298 yards with four TD’s and no interceptions or sacks taken.
The no-name defense also did a number, sacking Dak Prescott twice, while intercepting the Cowboys three times, and adding a fumble recovery to boot. Maybe Vegas’ defense turns Williams back into a pumpkin, but not after what I saw from Mariota, who had calm pockets most of the day.
He also handed it off plenty, as Washington ripped the Raiders for 201 yards rushing and three scores. Chicago doesn’t run it that well, but Williams is the key: he has the keys to hit the upset button in back-to-back weeks.
Jaguars +3.5 over 49ers
This might be an homage equally doled out to the better play of the Jacksonville Jaguars, but also the less-than-full-strength 49ers, who are soon to be the poster boy for IR if this keeps up. San Francisco lost star pass rusher Nick Bosa to a torn ACL, and his season is done. This is a team that is already down George Kittle (hamstring) Brandon Aiyuk, while Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are dinged up and questionable.
It’s going to be hard to put up points for a team already offensively challenged, even with Brock Purdy coming back from turf toe. Their only 20+ point outing this season was against the hapless Saints. Jacksonville also has the fourth-best run defense in the league, allowing just 82.7 yards per game, so they at least, on paper, can slow down Christian McCaffrey.
Meanwhile, the Jags should be 3-0 but frittered away a big lead to lose to Cincinnati with a backup QB. Other than that shootout, they’ve held the Panthers and Texans to just 10 points each.
It’s more good than bad right now for Trevor Lawrence, but he’ll need to at least be on par with Purdy to get the Jags to 3-1. Cleaning up his interceptions will help, as he’s tied for second-most with four. Lawrence’s passing pocket should be a lot cleaner without Bosa around, which should help Jacksonville put points on the board and stay within a field goal all day Sunday.
Buccaneers +3.5 over Eagles
So we saw the Philadelphia Eagles come to life against the Rams, finally unlocking a passing game that looked like it was heading for its third straight uninspiring afternoon. While that is encouraging, Philly still looks like a team living off championship swagger and the tush push, and a team like the Buccaneers can hang with them.
Baker Mayfield has been great for the Tampa Buccaneers to start this season, engineering game-winning drives in three straight games. He won’t have Mike Evans, who’s down with his annual hamstring injury, but rookie Emeka Egbuka has shown WR1 flashes.
The team could also be welcoming back WR Chris Godwin, and, perhaps more vital, hulking left tackle Tristan Wirfs to help handle that tough Eagles frontline. Tampa has also won two straight in this head-to-head and six of the last seven.
It was the Bucs’ 33-16 win in Week 4 that set the starting line for what’s been an incredible Philly run, where they’ve ripped off 19 wins in 20 games, including a Super Bowl. Jalen Hurts is a career 1-3 against Tampa, and while I’m not iron clad on Philly losing, I do think Mayfield keeps this one close too, with a field goal deciding things. Make these NFL betting picks with several bonuses on BetMGM, including a profit boost pack.