It’s the first week of the NFL season that we have teams on bye, with the Falcons, Packers, Bears and Steelers all off. For this article, we analyze several matchups and detail our favorite NFL prop picks.
- Garrett Wilson Over 62.5 Receiving Yards: -111 at DraftKings
- Michael Pittman Jr. Over 50.5 Receiving Yards: -110 at Fanatics
- Jameson Williams Over 21.5 Longest Reception: -115 at BetMGM
Wilson Torches Cowboys Defense
This is a play we were on last week and Garrett Wilson came through for us, so it makes to go right back to him as the matchup against the Dallas Cowboys is just too good to ignore. The Cowboys have allowed, by far, the most receiving yards to WRs in the entire NFL. They have allowed 206.8 yards per game specifically to WRs, with the next closest team at 183.2. If you take out Week 1 against an Eagles team that is incapable of throwing the ball, they have allowed 248 receiving yards per game to WRs.
Even if you just look at Weeks 3-4 and you take out the 400+ passing game from Russell Wilson in Week 2, they still have allowed 187 yards per game to WRs, which would still be the most in the NFL. Overall, the Cowboys have allowed the most fantasy points to WRs in the NFL. So, yes, they are very bad.
Wilson, meanwhile, is on a run-first offense which can make this frustrating, but he still gets absurd target numbers. He's had at least 8 targets in every game so far, going over this receiving yards number in three of the four games. To go even deeper than that, he has the sixth-most targets overall, the second-highest target rate and the 7th-most 1st read targets but the highest percentage of first read targets in the NFL.
As scary as the New York Jets offense is, it's basically either run the ball or throw to Garrett Wilson, and this is the best matchup you can possibly get in the NFL for wide receivers, making it worth a hit.
Pittman Bounces Back After Quiet Week 4
Michael Pittman Jr. has gone over this 50.5 number in two of four games this year, but his usage has been fantastic in pretty much all of them. Even last game, when he only had 41 yards, he still had 10 targets which we will gladly take game over game.
He is a little underrated for the Indianapolis Colts since he played so many games with Anthony Richardson as his QB, but if you look at the last three years and game specifically without Richardson, he has gone over this number in 12 of 20 games, averaging 68 yards and over 9 targets per game in these 20 games.
That technically does not even include Week 3 this year when he had 73 yards, as Richardson came in in some packages and had four rush attempts. Now, Pittman Jr gets a great matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, who have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards specifically to WRs in the NFL, and six of nine receivers against the Raiders have hit their receiving prop over.
Williams Catches Long Pass vs. Bengals
This is a great spot for Jameson Williams, who has gone over this number in three of four games so far this year. He cashed this last game, and that was a below-average game for Williams. Since the start of last season, he has gone over this in 14 of 22 games (63.6% rate).
He only had two receptions last week, but he had eight targets, and one reception went for 27 yards. Among those eight targets were multiple deep targets that just missed. It was clear they were trying to go to him deep and just could not connect. This comes as no surprise, but he is used as a deep threat in this offense.
He has the third-highest ADOT in the entire NFL, running the 12th-most vertical routes and the 14th-most go routes in the NFL, leading the Detroit Lions in both categories as well. While the Cincinnati Bengals defense has not given up a ton of deep bombs overall, they have allowed five of nine WRs against them hit their longest reception prop over, including a similar type of receiver in Marvin Mims last week.