We ate already a month into the NFL season. There are some fun matchups in Week 4, such as Eagles-Buccaneers, Chargers-Giants and Colts-Rams. For this article, we will be detailing our three favorite NFL prop picks for Sunday’s slate.
| NFL Prop Pick | Odds |
| Carson Wentz Under 210.5 Passing Yards | -114 on FanDuel |
| Jaxson Dart Over 32.5 Rushing Yards | -114 on DraftKings |
| Matthew Golden Over 20.5 Longest Reception | -110 on bet365 |
Fade Wentz in Dublin
This Vikings vs. Steelers is being played in Dublin, Ireland. We are taking the Vikings QB, Carson Wentz, passing yards under for the international matchup. He went under this number last week, granted that was a wild game where they ran the ball up and down on the Bengals, and had two separate defensive touchdowns. While we do not want to put too much stock into last week, this is still just a little too high based on the overall state of the Vikings offense.
Through three games this year, the Minnesota Vikings QBs have thrown for: 143 (JJ McCarthy), 158 (McCarthy) and 173 yards (Wentz, last week). Not only are they not doing a good job passing the ball, but they are also playing incredibly slow and are very run heavy. Through three games, the Vikings have run the fewest plays in the NFL. They've had trouble sustaining drives, which is part of it, but they also are taking a long time to snap the ball as well, as are the Steelers.
Both teams took 29 seconds between snaps in Week 3, which would be bottom 5 in the NFL. So, it comes as no surprise that the Vikings have run the fewest snaps in the NFL, while the Steelers have run the fourth fewest.
In general, due to that fact, this has the makings of a game that is going to be a slog where overs go to die. In terms of run rate, the Vikings have the seventh-highest neutral rush rate in the NFL at 44%. For context, a 44% neutral run rate would have been bottom 8 last year as well. So, not among the highest, but still high overall. While the Steelers defense has admittedly not done a good job this year against the pass, this is more fading the situation and the player in Wentz, who has been dreadful since 2019.
Dart Scampers in First Career Start
There is a little bit of risk here as it is Jaxson Dart's first start of his career, but he has some wheels and has a good matchup to take off. So far, through three games, the Chargers have allowed the second-most rushing yards to QBs in the entire NFL, and all three QBs against them have hit their rushing prop over.
The only team that has allowed more rushing yards to QBs than the Chargers is the Bills, but keep in mind they played Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields/Tyrod Taylor in two of the first three games. The Chargers haven't played statues, but they haven't played those guys either.
Mahomes ran for 57 yards on an o/u of 17.5, Geno Smith ran for 20 yards on an o/u of 10.5 and Bo Nix ran for 33 yards on an o/u of 21.5. So, while Dart has a higher over/under than all three of those guys, he also is likely to take off and run.
College is obviously different, but Dart took off and ran a lot his last year in college. So, expect him to scamper in this one for, hopefully, 33 or more yards for the New York Giants. There are multiple NFL betting bonuses available on DraftKings for this pick, including same-game parlay boosts.
Golden Gets Going Deep Against Cowboys
Matthew Golden had a 34-yard reception last game, and this is about as perfect of a matchup as it gets against a Cowboys defense that has been dreadful at guarding deep passes. On the year, the Cowboys have allowed the most passing yards per game, the highest yards per attempt, the third-highest ADOT, the highest % of throws against them being deep throws and tied for the most total deep throws.
They have been getting smoked deep, allowing six of 10 wide receivers in general go over their longest reception prop. As far as Golden goes, he is primarily used on these deep targets. He has run the most go routes on the Packers, and the most vertical routes as well, which are both down-field types of targets.
He also has fantastic numbers on both types of routes, with the best separation score and win rate in those categories. They connected on one last week and came super close to connecting on two different ones two weeks ago, and the guess here is they connect on one this week in a fantastic matchup.