Football fans are in for a treat as Sunday's action will run all day long, including an international matchup in London. Before the games get underway, check out these NFL best bets for Week 6 to take your best shot at wagering on all the exciting matchups.
NFL Best Bets for Week 6
The Kansas City Chiefs offense is back. I don’t want to confuse them with the high-flying units of Patrick Mahomes’ first few seasons, but KC is once again pushing the ball downfield and hitting explosive plays at an above-average rate.
That spells trouble for the Detroit Lions defense on Sunday Night Football, in a game that kicks off my NFL best bets card for Week 6.
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Lions and Chiefs Light Up the Scoreboard
Kansas City enters play this week leading the NFL in pass rate over expectation. They’re fresh off a game in which they had a 64% success rate on offense, the best of any team this season, while Mahomes is on pace for his highest QBR since 2022.
The Chiefs have racked up 65 points in the last two weeks alone, and now face a Detroit defense decimated by injuries. The Lions are down multiple key pieces on the defensive line and in the secondary, paving the way for a ceiling-type performance from Mahomes and Co.
On the other side of the ball, Detroit’s offense will certainly punch back in this situation. The Lions lead the NFL in points per game, while no team has scored more rushing touchdowns or has ripped off more explosive runs.
That’s worrisome if you’re a KC fan, as the Chiefs run defense grades out as a bottom-seven unit. When Jared Goff does take to the air, he won’t be facing a ton of pressure. KC’s once vaunted pass rush has a bottom-10 grade through five weeks, and was just diced up by TrevorLawrence and the Jaguars.
Three of Detroit’s last four games have sailed over 60 points, and I’m expecting this game to exceed the 52.5-point total as well.
Steelers Shut Down Browns
For the first time in NFL history, a team will be playing its third consecutive road game after playing overseas the week before. That team is the Cleveland Browns, who now travel to Pittsburgh to face a Mike Tomlin defense that is getting healthy. To make matters worse, Cleveland is trotting out rookie Dillon Gabriel for his second career start, and freshman pivots have not fared well in the Steel City.
Since 2007, rookie quarterbacks are 6-30 straight up in Pittsburgh. Cleveland has lost 21straight regular-season games on the road versus the Steelers, while Pittsburgh is fresh off an early-season bye. Under Tomlin, the Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-1 against the spread off a bye since 2017. They’re expected to get key secondary pieces Jalen Ramsey and Joey Porter Jr. back for this contest, while few quarterbacks are better suited to handle the Browns pass rush than Aaron Rodgers.
Yes, Cleveland boasts the second-best pass rush win rate in the NFL, but when they don’t get home, they are vulnerable. The Browns have coughed up 4 passing touchdowns over the last two weeks, and no QB gets the ball out faster than Rodgers.
I’m expecting the Pittsburgh defense to clamp down on Gabriel, limiting Cleveland to short drives and likely forcing a few turnovers. That will give the Steelers short fields to work with, allowing them to build a margin and cover the 5.5-point spread.
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Panthers Cover vs Cowboys
Last but not least, I’m betting Carolina +3.5 at home versus Dallas. The Dallas Cowboys defense can’t stop a nosebleed, ranking last in the NFL in points allowed. The only reason this team isn’t winless is because of Dak Prescott, who’s playing at an MVP-type level.
Prescott is the NFL’s third-highest graded passer so far, but is still missing top target CeeDee Lamb. That didn’t come back to bite him against the Jets porous defense last Sunday, but this Panthers D is no joke. Carolina’s defense ranks fourth in success rate this season, and is allowing just 12 points per game at home so far.
The Carolina Panthers have covered in four of their last five contests in Carolina dating back to last year, while Prescott is winless in his last four starts as a favorite.