Hands up if you had the best record in the NFL heading into Week 7 belong to both the Indianapolis Colts and Tampa Bucs, who are both 5-1. Me neither.
However, we’ve got enough tape to (hopefully) have an idea what to expect. Here now are my NFL best bets for Week 7. With a number of compelling matchups littered across the Sunday slate, I've done the work to identify three plays that stand out.
Let's get into the NFL best bets for today's games.
NFL Best Bets for Week 7
Three picks spread out across three different kickoff windows will give football bettors everything they need to profit from today's action, including two over-under picks and a bet against the spread.
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Saints vs Bears Over 46.5 Points
Look at what’s gotten into the Chicago Bears. After starting the year 0-2, Chicago has ripped off three straight, and they’ve provided a passable offense to do it.
They’ve scored at least 25 points in each of those three wins, including a 25-24 comeback win over the Washington Commanders.
They’re also making hay with a +8 turnover differential, which is tied for tops in the NFL, helping offset an offense that’s just outside the Top 10 in passing, and inside the Top 20 in rushing.
As for the Saints, they may have lost five of six, but they can put up just enough points to help this bet cross the Over finish line.
New Orleans has scored at least 19 points in three straight games and in four of its six games on the year.
They also have struggling defensive units: the Bears are 27th in points allowed, while the Saints are 25th.
Giants vs Broncos Under 41 Points
The only thing worse than the Broncos’ offense last week was the offense of the New York Jets. Thankfully, Denver was playing the Jets and escaped their London game with a 13-11 win.
Now back stateside, they host New York’s other team, the Giants, who are coming off a stunning 34-17 whipping of the Philadelphia Eagles. This is a team that averages 24 points per game, which ranks 20th in the NFL.
Sunday is a good barometer to see just how far the Jaxson Dart experience can currently take the Giants. Denver is second in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 15.8 points per game.
They also lead the league with 30 sacks, eight clear of the second-place Steelers.
While Denver has won three straight, their offensive output has shrunk every game, until the season-low 13 against the Jets.
Bo Nix hasn’t been great this year, but their run game has been, churning out 130.2 rush yards per game, good for seventh in the NFL.
A more run-heavy approach eats more clock, and also keeps Nix clean in the pocket, while keeping the Giants and Dart off the field. I like Denver to grind down New York.
Falcons +2.5 vs. 49ers
Fred Warner is the latest 49ers star to go down, and he's now done for the year with an ankle injury.
We’re about to see just how invaluable Warner was to that linebacker group, especially as they have to deal with Bijan Robinson on Sunday night.
The line might be the most surprising one I’ve seen this week.
Atlanta is coming off a signature win over the Bills last week to move to 3-2, just a game back of the Bucs for first in the NFC South (though Tampa does hold the head-to-head tiebreaks).
They’ve won three out of four, but they’re underdogs to a San Fran team that’s missing its starting QB Brock Purdy, star tight end George Kittle, and stud edge rusher Nick Bosa.
The Niners looked overmatched at times against Baker Mayfield in a 30-19 loss last game, and they’ve been somewhat unwatchable under the QB manager guide, followed to a tee by Mac Jones.
Atlanta also boasts the best pass defense in the NFL, allowing a minuscule 139.4 yards per game.
If the Falcons can cover a depleted receiving group, with no Ricky Pearsall or Brandon Aiyuk, that leaves them more guys in the box to stop a rush attack, which shouldn’t be a problem against San Fran, who ranks 30th in the NFL in rushing.
Michael Penix said after beating Buffalo that it proves they are legit. If this is true, Atlanta should hammer a Niners’ side that’s basically spare parts.