We’re into Week 5 in the NFL, and our picks this week begin with a matchup of contenders vs pretenders.
Find out who we like when the Lions visit the Bengals as double-digit point favorites, and our other NFL best bets below.
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NFL Best Bets for Week 5 Games
Lions (-10.5) Over Bengals
It’s the NFL, where when it rains, it pours. Currently, it’s the Cincinnati Bengals standing outside with no umbrella.
Cincinnati has been unwatchable since Joe Burrow went down with a foot injury in Week 2.
It’s not all on QB Jake Browning – who many confidently touted as one of the best backup pivots in the league – but he’s not exactly free of fault.
He’s the driver of an engine that has been walloped 76-13 in back-to-back road losses.
But this league is relentless, and the schedule makers have curated the worst nightmare for a team to face (perhaps outside the Buffalo Bills) when the Detroit Lions come to town.
The Lions are quite literally ferocious, riding a 3-game win streak and hanging no less than 34 points on each opponent. Save for a garbage-time TD against Baltimore, and Detroit would have won all three of these games by at least 14 points.
They own the NFL’s best point differential, and remember that totally dinged-up defense that was spare parts coming down the home stretch last year?
They’re fourth in defensive EPA success rate, and are tied for the second most sacks in the league, with 14.
The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last 14 road games following a home win, while Cincy is 0-3-1 ATS on the year.
Chargers (-2.5) Over Commanders
I get that Jayden Daniels being back in the Commanders’ lineup makes Washington infinitely better and far more dangerous, but this is going to be a tough one for even him to pull off.
The kid from San Bernardino will make his first-ever professional start in the state of California, taking on the Chargers.
However, he’ll be without stud receiver Terry McLaurin (quad) and another good pass catcher in Noah Brown. Deebo Samuel (heel) missed a few practices this week, but should be good to go. Guard Sam Cosmi (knee) will also sit.
That makes Daniels’ job that much harder against a Chargers’ defense that currently ranks third in the NFL in yards allowed at 270 per contest.
More than that, though, Washington will be getting an LA side that was embarrassed last week in a 21-18 upset loss to the New York Giants.
The Bolts’ offensive line is a mess, with tackle Joe Alt (ankle) confirmed out, with star tackle Rashwan Slater (knee) already done for the year. Guard Mekhi Becton (concussion protocol) is questionable.
The patchwork O-line has hindered Justin Herbert’s otherwise strong start, as he’s been sacked 12 times through four games, a Top-5 mark in the league.
Still, I think Jim Harbaugh finds a way to keep Herbert upright, and that Washington defense isn’t exactly terrifying: they’re 24th in yards allowed, and 27th against the pass, with teams shredding them for 248.5 yards per game.
The favorites have covered the spread in eight of the Chargers' last nine games at SoFi Stadium, and the trend sticks here.
Vikings vs Browns Over 36.5 points
It’s by far the lowest total in the NFL in Week 5, and the only one to touch into the 30-point range.
But I expect some goofiness to transpire across the pond when the Vikings and Browns kick things off from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.
It’s about time Cleveland put the Joe Flacco bridge QB strategy to rest. Flacco is old, and he’s not particularly good, as evidenced by his six interceptions against just two TDs. At 1-3, the Browns are right around where they always are.
Enter star rookie QB … Dillon Gabriel? Shedeur Sanders mime opinions aside, Gabriel will get first dibs at the starting gig. He got his feet wet in mop-up work last game, going 3-for-4 for 19 yards and a touchdown.
The Browns can use any offensive spark: They’ve yet to score more than 17 points in a game this season.
Gabriel will be facing another backup, in veteran Carson Wentz, as JJ McCarthy deals with a high ankle sprain.
Wentz has filled in just fine for JJ McCarthy, who is dealing with an ankle sprain. He threw two TDs against the hapless Bengals (with the defense adding two majors of their own) and had 350 yards passing with two TDs and two interceptions in Ireland against the Steelers.
Brian Flores is likely not the defensive coordinator your rookie quarterback wants to see in his first career start, but Gabriel’s floor has to be able to hit the same scoring lows as Flacco.
There are also too many weapons on the Vikes for Wentz not to be able to perform at an average level like he has.
Just playing the way the Browns and Vikes currently play gives the Over a legit chance – throw in a score on special teams or defense? We’re flying past that Over.