There’s a fantastic Monday Night Football matchup between two legit Super Bowl contenders in the Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens. Both teams bounced-back after tough (for different reasons) losses in Week 1 with blowout victories over a division opponent in Week 2.
Now, they face off against each other at 1-1, knowing that one of these two juggernauts is going to have to start 1-2. Below, we look at our favorite Lions-Ravens props for the NFC-AFC showdown.
| Lions-Ravens Prop Picks | Odds |
| David Montgomery Over 10.5 Receiving Yards | -110 on bet365 |
| Zay Flowers Over 69.5 Receiving Yards | -110 on bet365 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Over 3.5 Receptions | -115 on Fanatics |
Montgomery Clears Low Receiving Line
The goal for this one is to take advantage of an undervalued line, which was the case all last year as well and seems to still be the case this year.
Dating back to last year, David Montgomery has gone over this number in 12 of 17 games. One game he missed was the playoff game against the Commanders last year, when Montgomery returned from injury but only played 25% of the snaps. That is the fewest snap rate he has had as a member of the Lions, including both games this year.
Of the remaining four times he has missed, three of them the Lions won by 30+ points. 30-plus! So, if we take out those outlier games, Montgomery has hit this in 12/13 games since last season. The only game he missed was Week 1 last year, meaning he has his in 12 straight since then.
There was a ton of speculation about Montgomery taking a backseat this year, but that has not really been the case, at least in terms of snap rate. He is playing 38% of the snaps this year and played 40.7% last year. Slightly down, but not dramatically. The Ravens have generally been a good matchup for RB receiving props as well, allowing the fourth-most receiving yards to RBs last year (39.6 yards per game), and are currently allowing the sixth-most this year at 51.5.
Flowers Continues Hot Start to Season
Last week, against a tough Browns run defense, the Ravens had a neutral run rate of 34.6%, which is the 10th-lowest in the NFL so far this year, and would have been the second lowest of all teams last year. The reason this is important is because the Ravens, once again, are playing a tough run defense this week against the Lions, and the expectation is that they are once again going to be pass-heavy.
So, predicting that the Ravens are going to be pass-heavy tonight, the guess is that a ton of that volume goes to Zay Flowers, who has been fantastic through two games this year. It really looks as though he is leveling up in his third season, with the sixth-highest separation score in the NFL, the second-most yards per route run and the third-most targets per route run. Again, this is among all WRs in the entire NFL.
So far this year Flowers has fantastic numbers against both zone and man coverage, but last year he graded out much better against man coverage. This is important, as the Lions run a ton of man. The sixth-most so far this year at 39.7%, and the most in the NFL last year at 45%. Teams also play man coverage at the highest rate against the Ravens so far this year (50.9%) and the 10th-highest last year.
Flowers only has six career games against teams that ran zone 36% or higher, which is the floor in this game, and he has gone over 70 receiving yards in five of those six games and hit 100 yards three times. It is nine of 15 games receiving 70 yards if we lower the man coverage rate to 30%.
Gibbs Joins with Receiving Work for the Lions
It might seem counterintuitive to take receiving props for both running backs, but this is another NFL betting line that has some value. Gibbs has played 66% and 56% of the snaps in Weeks 1 & 2 to start the season, so while Montgomery is still seeing some work, there is no doubt that this is Jahmyr Gibbs backfield to handle most of the snaps.
Going back to last year, Gibbs has recorded 4+ receptions in just under 60% of games (7/13) in which he has played at least 50% of the snaps AND when Montgomery has also played.
That last distinction is important, as Montgomery has missed time when Gibbs has crushed this reception total, but we are even filtering those games out. The reality of the situation is that Jared Goff utilizes his running backs in the receiving game a ton, and that should figure to be a huge part of the game tonight.
Through two games this year, the Lions have the second-highest target share going to the RB position at 26.2%, which would have the led the NFL by far last year. Even if the argument is that number is going to come down, keep in mind that last year the Lions had the third highest of this same metric at 19.6%. So, even if it comes down, it should still be among the tops in the NFL.
As mentioned previously, the Ravens are a solid matchup for RB reception props, allowing the most receptions to RBs through two games this year, and were top 10 last year. Both starting RBs against the Ravens this year (James Cook and Jerome Ford) have recorded five receptions this year.