The first of two Monday Night Football games is this Jets vs. Dolphins starting at 7:15 pm ET. Two division rivals are looking for their first win. The biggest news heading into this game is that Justin Fields is back from a concussion and starting for the Jets.
Below, we will be giving out the best Jets-Dolphins props and picks for the game. View NFL betting bonuses on BetMGM to place your wagers.
Jets-Dolphins Prop | Odds |
Garrett Wilson Over 61.5 Receiving Yards | -118 on BetMGM |
Malik Washington Over 4.5 Rushing Yards | -115 on BetMGM |
Wilson Gets Going Against Dolphins Secondary
This line took a dramatic turn once Fields was announced as the starter, going from around 67.5 to down to 57.5 at some books at one point, that have now settled around 61.5-63.5, with BetMGM having the lowest line mentioned above.
We have seen Fields hyper-target his No. 1 receiver, which is what Garrett Wilson is in this game. Through three games, Wilson has nine, eight and 13 targets, which is a ton, and Fields played in those first two games.
Heading into Week 4 (so, not counting anything from Sunday), Wilson has the second-highest target share in the NFL, only behind Puka Nacua, and is averaging 0.29 targets per route run. He is getting a ton of work for the New York Jets, and thanks to that he has gone over this number in two of the three games this year, and one-of-two with Fields.
Now, he gets a matchup against a horrible Dolphins secondary, and one that plays perfect for Wilson to rack up a bunch of stats. What the Dolphins love to do is blitz and play man-coverage behind that blitz, but the issue for them is their corners are not that good, and they struggle with WRs who are excellent route-runners and can separate quickly. Enter Wilson, who has the sixth-highest yards per route run against man coverage in the entire NFL.
To go even deeper than that, his stats when blitzed are fantastic. His yards per route run goes from 1.74 when not blitzed to 3.56 when blitzed, with his targets per route run going from .41 when blitzed to 0.23 when not blitzed. It is a dramatic difference, and good for this matchup. Even if you take out the one Tyrod Taylor start in Week 3, the numbers still look good in this regard for Wilson.
He goes off on Monday night. Use a $150 bonus for bet on Wilson by using the BetMGM bonus code TSN150.
Washington Receives Work on the Ground
Generally, taking a wide receiver to go over a rushing yards number might seem random, but the Miami Dolphins have made it a point to get the ball in his hands using rushing attempts to start the year. He has had a rushing attempt in all three games this year, also going over 4.5 rushing yards in all three games as well.
In Week 1, Malik Washington did it in one carry, but the previous two weeks he has received three carries each and has recorded 23 and 20 rushing yards in those two games. Washington is in his second year after a disappointing rookie season. He has athleticism but has not yet developed much as a route-runner. So, the Dolphins have found a way to get him involved on the ground where he can use his ability to work in space as opposed to needing to win on a route.
Dating back to last year, Washington has received at least one carry in eight games, and he has recorded five or more rushing yards in six of those eight games. The guess here is that the Dolphins continue to work him in on the ground, and he can go over this rushing prop for us.