Week 3 of the NFL season kicks off with a massive AFC East showdown in primetime this evening. Before kickoff arrives, check out this detailed Dolphins-Bills betting preview featuring the latest odds, player props, picks, and predictions for Thursday Night Football.
- The Bills are massive 12.5-point home favorites in this AFC East showdown, a line that has moved significantly since opening.
- Miami has struggled mightily in this matchup, losing its last six games against Buffalo and failing to cover the spread in its last four trips to Orchard Park as an underdog.
- With a high total of 50 points and two explosive offenses, player props for Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, and Tyreek Hill offer compelling betting angles.
An intense AFC East rivalry takes center stage on Thursday Night Football as the undefeated Buffalo Bills host the winless Miami Dolphins. This matchup pits two of the conference's most dynamic quarterbacks against each other, but under vastly different circumstances to start the season. Josh Allen has been surgical for Buffalo, leading a high-powered offense that has looked nearly unstoppable. Through two games, Allen is completing 66.2% of his passes for 542 yards and a 2:0 TD-to-INT ratio, adding another 89 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
Conversely, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins' air raid offense have sputtered out of the gate. While Tagovailoa has completed a crisp 71.4% of his passes for 430 yards, three interceptions have stalled drives and contributed to a dismal -4 turnover differential.
Miami's inability to protect the football or get stops on defense has them in an early hole, and a trip to Highmark Stadium—a venue where they have historically struggled—presents a monumental challenge.
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Dolphins-Bills Betting Preview
This NFL primetime battle will test Miami's resilience against a Buffalo team that is firing on all cylinders. We'll break down the odds, key matchups, and player props to find the best betting value in this divisional clash.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET, and the game will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video. The weather forecast calls for a clear evening with temperatures around 67°F and light winds of 4 mph, which should not significantly impact play.
Dolphins vs Bills Odds
| Bet Type | Miami Dolphins | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +12.5 (-110) | -12.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +600 | -909 |
| Total Points | Over 50 (-110) | Under 50 (-120) |
Odds as of September 18, 2025 from BetMGM.
The odds paint a clear picture of Buffalo's dominance in this matchup, installing them as massive home favorites. The moneyline implies the Bills have a staggering probability of winning this contest.
Moneyline (vig-free): Buffalo Bills \~86.3%, Miami Dolphins \~13.7%
Buffalo has been a covering machine at home, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at Highmark Stadium. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have been a poor investment on the road, particularly as underdogs, where they are 0-4 ATS in their last four such games.
The total is set at a high 50 points, but trends suggest a potential under, as the over has hit in just one of Miami's last seven games against opponents with winning records.
Odds Movement & Analysis
This NFL betting line has seen one of the most significant movements of the early season. The spread opened with the Bills favored by just 8.5 points, but a wave of money has pushed that number up a full four points to (-12.5). The total has also climbed from an opening of 48.5 to 50, indicating that while bettors expect a lopsided Buffalo victory, they also anticipate points being scored.
The massive shift in the spread is a direct reflection of both teams' early-season form and historical trends. The Bills have looked like a juggernaut, while the Dolphins are 0-2 SU/ATS and have a -4 turnover differential.
Furthermore, Miami's abysmal record in Buffalo and their struggles in primetime games (1-7 SU & ATS in their last 8) have given sharps and the public every reason to back the Bills. The value on the Dolphins at (+12.5) may seem tempting, but their inability to perform in these exact situations makes it a risky proposition.
Dolphins vs Bills – Key Matchups to Watch
Quarterback vs Pass Defense
Allen has owned this matchup, and his dual-threat ability poses a nightmare for a Miami defense that has allowed a 126.1 QB rating to opposing passers this season. He is averaging 271 passing yards per game with a clean 2:0 TD-INT ratio. Miami's defense has generated just four sacks and zero interceptions through two games, suggesting Allen will have ample time in the pocket to pick apart a questionable secondary.
For Miami, Tagovailoa's quick-release style (71.4% completion) is designed to negate the pass rush, but Buffalo's disciplined zone schemes and six sacks have flustered quarterbacks. Tagovailoa's three interceptions are a major red flag against a Bills defense with a +2 turnover differential.
Running Game vs Run Defense
The Bills have established a punishing ground game, averaging 166 rushing yards per game and scoring six touchdowns. The tandem of James Cook and Allen's designed runs will test a Miami run defense that is surrendering 139 yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. In contrast, the Dolphins have struggled to establish the run, managing only 69.5 yards per game.
While their 5.1 yards per carry average is efficient, the low volume indicates they've been forced into passing situations early and often. Buffalo's defensive front has been stout, and if they can stuff the run on early downs, it will put even more pressure on Tagovailoa.
Pass Catchers vs Secondary
This is where Miami has its best chance to compete. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle form one of the league's most explosive duos. However, they face a Bills secondary that allows a league-low 124 passing yards per game. The key will be whether Miami's offensive line can give Tagovailoa enough time to let deep routes develop. Waddle is listed as questionable, which could be a crucial loss for Miami.
For Buffalo, a new-look receiving corps featuring Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir steps in. While they lack a true alpha WR1, Allen's ability to distribute the ball and extend plays should create opportunities against a Dolphins secondary that has been torched for a 78.8% completion rate.
Offensive Line vs Pass Rush
Miami's offensive line has been a weak point, allowing eight sacks in just two games. That's a recipe for disaster against a Bills front that has already recorded six sacks and 11 QB hits. If Buffalo's pass rush can consistently disrupt Tagovailoa's timing, it could lead to turnovers and stalled drives.
On the other side, Buffalo's line has been solid, giving up only two sacks. They will face a Miami pass rush that has been inconsistent but has the talent to generate pressure. The battle in the trenches will likely determine if this game stays close or turns into a blowout.
Dolphins vs Bills Player Props: Passing
| Player | Passing Yards | Passing TDs | Completions | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 234.5 (O -139 | U +105) | 1.5 (O -167 | U +125) | 20.5 (O -120 | U -110) | 0.5 (O +140 | U -182) |
| Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | 231.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 1.5 (O +120 | U -154) | 22.5 (O -133 | U +100) | 0.5 (O -175 | U +135) |
Allen's passing yardage line of 234.5 seems low given his average of 271 yards per game this season, but it reflects the likelihood of a run-heavy game script if the Bills build a large lead. The over on his 1.5 passing TDs at -167 is heavily juiced but logical against a defense that's given up three passing scores already.
For Tagovailoa, the over on 0.5 interceptions (-175) is the standout bet. He's thrown three picks in two games, and the Bills' defense is built to force mistakes.
Rushing & Receiving Props
| Player | Rushing Yards | Receiving Yards | Receptions | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook (BUF) | 68.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 12.5 (O -120 | U -111) | 1.5 (O -189 | U +140) | Yes -178 | No +135 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 28.5 (O -115 | U -118) | N/A | N/A | Yes -168 | No +130 |
| Devon Achane (MIA) | 53.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 37.5 (O -139 | U +105) | 5.5 (O -118 | U -111) | Yes +113 | No -145 |
| Tyreek Hill (MIA) | N/A | 64.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 5.5 (O -118 | U -111) | Yes +170 | No -225 |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | N/A | 51.5 (O -139 | U +105) | 4.5 (O -110 | U -120) | Yes +198 | No -270 |
Cook's rushing line at 68.5 yards is intriguing against a Miami defense allowing 139 rushing yards per game. If Buffalo controls the clock, he should see enough volume to hit the over. Allen's anytime TD prop at -168 is a strong play; he already has two rushing scores and is Buffalo's primary goal-line threat.
Achane's receiving yards at 37.5 could be a smart over play, as he'll likely be targeted frequently on quick passes and check-downs if Tagovailoa is under pressure.
Dolphins vs Bills Picks & Prediction
Everything points toward a dominant performance from the Bills in this contest. Their advantages are overwhelming across the board, starting with the quarterback. Allen is not only playing at an elite level, but he has historically dismantled the Dolphins, especially within the hostile confines of Highmark Stadium.
Buffalo's offense is balanced and powerful, averaging 450 yards per game, while their defense is suffocating opponents, allowing a mere 293 yards per contest. The Bills have won their last 11 home games and are 13-2 in their last 15 games as a favorite, demonstrating a remarkable consistency that Miami simply cannot match right now.
The Dolphins are in disarray. Their -4 turnover differential is a glaring issue, and they are facing a Bills team with a +2 mark. Miami's struggles are magnified in critical situations; they are 1-15 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record and a staggering 1-7 ATS in their last eight primetime games.
The massive 12.5-point spread is daunting, but the trends fully support a Buffalo blowout. The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games, and Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last four tries as a road underdog. Lay the points with the far superior team playing at home in a spot where they have consistently thrived.
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Picks:
- Against the Spread: Buffalo Bills -12.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Under 50 (-120)
- Player Prop: Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 Interceptions (-175)
Recent History: Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills
The recent history of this AFC East rivalry has been completely one-sided. The Bills have won the last six consecutive meetings against the Dolphins. In their matchups, Buffalo has not only won but often dominated, covering the spread in three of those six victories.
Miami's last win in the series feels like a distant memory, and their struggles are particularly pronounced when traveling to Orchard Park, where they have lost six straight. This historical dominance, combined with the current form of both teams, heavily favors Buffalo to continue their winning streak in the series.