Week 2 of the NFL season begins with an exciting NFC matchup as the Green Bay Packers host the Washington Commanders. Both teams started 1-0 in convincing victories over a division rival and have legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.
Only one of these teams will start with a 2-0 record. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime. Below, we will detail our favorite Commanders-Packers props and odds on top sportsbook apps.
| Commanders-Packers Prop Pick | Odds |
| Jayden Daniels Over 31.5 Pass Attempts | +100 on FanDuel |
| Josh Jacobs 80+ Rushing Yards | +100 on bet365 |
| Austin Ekeler 25+ Receiving Yards | +122 on FanDuel |
Daniels Drops Back for Commanders
While Jayden Daniels went under this number the first game of the year, that game had about as bad of a game-script for Daniels passing props as it possibly gets. The Giants did not score a single touchdown in that game and could only manage six points. That meant that the Commanders were never threatened and could lean on their ground game for much of the second half.
Last year, Daniels went over this number in nine of his last 15 games, including the playoffs. Of those six losses, two of them he did not play the whole game (one game he left due to injury, and he was rested in the second half of Week 18), and that also includes two separate games where he landed on exactly 31 passing attempts and another time on 30. So, all in all, if you look at the last 13 games Daniels started and finished, it was over in nine of 13, and at least 30 attempts in 12/13.
That is a pretty good historical hit rate for Daniels, and we have not even gotten to the matchup. This is a good Packers team whose offense should be counted on to score and make sure the Commanders need to keep up themselves, and a Packers defense that is very stout on the ground.
The Packers had the best stuff rate in the NFL last year, meaning they had the highest % of run plays against them that were considered "stuffed", as defined by Fantasy Points. On top of that, they had the seventh-best run defensive DVOA as well. Then, in Week 1 of this year, the Lions could not get anything going on the ground against the Packers. Make this pick with one of the NFL betting bonuses on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Jacobs Rumbles for 80+ Yards
Josh Jacobs should have a good situation on Thursday, going up against a Commanders run defense that struggled against the run last year. While Jacobs has only hit this in 7/19 games as a member of the Packers and did not hit it last week against the Lions, that is a much more difficult matchup than this Commanders team, and this is a Packers team that does love to run the ball.
Last year, they had the highest neutral run rate in the entire NFL, even more than the Eagles. This is a stat that looks at only first and second down and takes out obvious passing downs in the fourth quarter, and how frequently the team runs the ball. On the entire year, they ran the ball 50.9% of the time in neutral situations, and the number even went up as the year went on. From Week 10 on, their neutral run rate was 54.4%, once against the highest in the NFL.
So, yes, last week they did not have a good running game, but that was against a stout Lions run defense, which is not the case Thursday night. Last year, the Commanders allowed the third-most rushing yards per game and missed the fourth-most tackles. Looking at even more nerd stats, they had the 7th-worst stuff rate, and the worst adjusted YPC allowed in the entire NFL.
Their roster and coaching staff stayed the same, so, the guess here is that they end the season in 2025 with a similarly bad run defense to 2024. Get a $300 bonus for Commanders-Packers props with the bet365 bonus code TSN365.
Ekeler Gets Receiving Work Thursday Night
In 16 games as a member of the Commanders, Austin Ekeler has hit this in nine of those games. One game he missed was a game in which Daniels got hurt in the first quarter, so it is really 9/15 games with Daniels, and that also includes cashing it last week.
This is all about the matchup, and the Packers are the type of defense that allows a ton of underneath stuff to the RB position, which is perfect for Ekeler. Last year, the Packers allowed the highest % of the target share go to the RB position at 19.2%. An astounding 35% of the target share went to the RB position in their first game, which was the second highest of all Week 1 matchups.
This is by design on how the Packers play defense, as they have a very good pass rush and do not let themselves get beat deep, which means they end up allowing a lot of underneath stuff to the running back. We just saw both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery hit their receiving yards prop over against the Packers last week, with Gibbs getting 30 receiving yards.
Granted, he did that on 10 receptions, but the Commanders should be able to challenge the Packers deep more than the Lions did last week, which means they will have more room underneath.