The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers will square off at Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Friday, September 5, 2025. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 pm ET and will be broadcast on YouTube. The weather forecast calls for a clear evening, creating ideal conditions for a passing-game showdown. Our Chiefs-Chargers betting preview dives into different props, NFL betting bonuses and odds for the AFC West matchup.
- Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs kick off their title defense against AFC West rival Justin Herbert and the Chargers in a unique international setting in São Paulo, Brazil.
- The Chiefs are currently 3-point favorites in this neutral-site showdown, a line that has moved slightly in their favor since opening at -2.5.
- Despite both teams featuring high-powered offenses, the under has cashed in the last four head-to-head meetings between these divisional foes.
Two of the league's premier quarterbacks, Mahomes and Herbert, will duel in São Paulo, Brazil. The Chiefs, fresh off a Super Bowl loss, begin their quest for another division title against a Chargers team looking to make a statement under a new regime. This AFC West clash promises offensive fireworks, pitting Mahomes' creative genius against Herbert's powerful arm.
Last season, Mahomes orchestrated an offense that averaged 22.6 points per game, throwing for 3,780 yards with a 26-to-11 TD-INT ratio and a 93.1 passer rating. Across the field, Herbert led a Chargers offense that put up 23.6 points per game, finishing the year with 3,870 passing yards, 23 touchdowns against just three interceptions, and an elite 101.7 rating.
With both teams retooling their receiving corps in the offseason, this Week 1 matchup will provide an early litmus test for two of the AFC's top contenders. We'll break down the odds, key matchups, and player props to find the best betting value.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Betting Odds on BetMGM Sportsbook
| Bet Type | Chiefs | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3 (-111) | +3 (+100) |
| Moneyline | -167 | +140 |
| Total Points | Over 47 (-105) | Under 47 (-115) |
Use the BetMGM bonus code TSN150 to win a $150 bonus for your spread, moneyline and total picks. The odds establish the Chiefs as solid favorites on a neutral field. The -167 moneyline implies a 62.6% probability of victory.
While the Chiefs have dominated this series recently, the Chargers have been a strong bet in primetime, going 3-1 ATS in their last four night games. The total is set at a healthy 47 points, but bettors should note the strong trend toward the under in this rivalry.
Odds Movement & Analysis
This betting line has seen notable movement since its opening. The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point favorites, and the line has shifted to a key number of -3. The moneyline saw a similar adjustment, with the Chiefs moving from -154 to -167. This shift indicates that early money, likely from the public, is backing the defending champions. The game total has also seen significant action, climbing from an opening of 45.5 to 47 points, signaling an expectation of offensive production from both sides.
The primary drivers for this movement are the Chiefs' sustained success and their incredible 18-1 straight-up record in their last 19 games as a favorite. However, the Chargers present an interesting case for value.
They have covered the spread in seven of their last ten games overall. The line movement to the key number of 3 makes the Chargers +3 an intriguing proposition for bettors who believe they can keep this divisional game close, especially on a neutral field where home-field advantage is nullified.
Key Matchups to Watch on Friday Night
Take note of these matchups when making your player props. Sign up with the current DraftKings promo code offer to snag a $300 NFL Week 1 bonus.
Quarterback vs. Pass Defense
Mahomes faces a Chargers defense that was solid but not spectacular last season, allowing 206.9 passing yards per game. The key for Los Angeles will be generating pressure with their front four, led by Khalil Mack, to disrupt Mahomes' timing without having to blitz excessively.
The Chiefs' offensive line, which boasts a top-tier pass block win rate, will be a formidable challenge. For Herbert, the task is to dissect a Steve Spagnuolo defense that excels at disguising coverages. The Chiefs allowed 218.8 passing yards per game in 2024 and will look to confuse Herbert with post-snap rotations.
Running Game vs. Run Defense
Isiah Pacheco will test a Chargers run defense that was susceptible to power schemes last year, allowing 117.5 yards per game. Pacheco's violent, downhill running style could wear down the Los Angeles front seven over four quarters.
On the other side, the Chargers will deploy a revamped backfield, likely featuring Omarion Hampton. They'll face a Kansas City run defense that improved significantly down the stretch in 2024, finishing the season allowing just 101.8 rushing yards per game.
Pass Catchers vs. Secondary
This is the marquee matchup. Travis Kelce remains a nightmare for opposing defenses, and the Chargers have historically struggled to contain elite tight ends. He will be the focal point against the Chargers' linebackers and safeties.
The Chiefs also added speed on the outside with rookies Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, who will test the Chargers' cornerbacks deep. For the Chargers, rookie Ladd McConkey and a committee of receivers must find separation against a talented Chiefs secondary led by Trent McDuffie. The battle in the slot will be particularly crucial.
Offensive Line vs. Pass Rush
The trenches could decide this game. The Chiefs' offensive line was one of the league's best in 2024, but the Chargers' pass rush, featuring Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu, can wreck a game plan. If the Chargers can generate pressure without blitzing, it dramatically increases their chances.
Conversely, Herbert will be playing behind an offensive line tasked with stopping Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. Protecting Herbert is paramount; if he has a clean pocket, he can pick apart any defense.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Passing Props
| Player | Passing Yards | Passing TDs | Completions | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 246.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 1.5 (O -133 | U +105) | 23.5 (O -120 | U -110) | 0.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 234.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 1.5 (O -105 | U -125) | 21.5 (O +100 | U -133) | 0.5 (O -105 | U -128) |
Mahomes averaged 222.4 passing yards per game last season, making his line of 246.5 seem high, but he often starts seasons hot. Herbert averaged 227.6 yards per game, putting his line of 234.5 right in his wheelhouse. The most interesting line is Herbert's passing TDs at 1.5 (-105 Over), a number he surpassed in 9 of 17 games last year.
Rushing & Receiving Props
| Player | Rushing Yards | Receiving Yards | Receptions | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 48.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 9.5 (O -110 | U -120) | 1.5 (O -182 | U +135) | Yes +177 | No -230 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | N/A | 50.5 (O -115 | U -118) | 5.5 (O +110 | U -143) | Yes +179 | No -235 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | N/A | 71.5 (O -118 | U -111) | 5.5 (O -111 | U -118) | Yes +181 | No -240 |
| Omarion Hampton (LAC) | 48.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 13.5 (O -118 | U -111) | 2.5 (O +160 | U -222) | Yes +154 | No -200 |
NFL player props as of September 5, 2025 from BetMGM.
Kelce's receiving yards line is set at a modest 50.5. Given the Chargers' historical struggles against him and top tight ends, the over presents significant value. For the Chargers, McConkey's receiving line is set high at 71.5 yards, indicating the market expects him to be Herbert's top target from day one. Pacheco's rushing line of 48.5 seems attainable against a Chargers run defense that has shown vulnerabilities.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Final Prediction
The Chiefs enter this game riding a wave of dominance, not just over the league but specifically over the Chargers, having won the last seven head-to-head matchups. Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid are nearly automatic when given time to prepare, and their 18-1 record as favorites is a staggering testament to their consistency.
While the Chargers have a quarterback in Herbert who can go toe-to-toe with anyone, their track record in close games and as underdogs is alarming. The Chargers have lost their last 11 games as an underdog and are a dismal 1-8 ATS in their last nine games when getting fewer than seven points.
The key to this NFL game lies in the trenches. If the Chargers' offensive line can give Herbert time against a disruptive Chiefs front led by Jones, they have the firepower to keep pace. However, the Chiefs' defense is disciplined and excels at creating just enough pressure to force mistakes. Offensively, the Chiefs will lean on Kelce to exploit mismatches in the middle of the field and use their new speed at wide receiver to stretch the Chargers' secondary.
Despite the game being at a neutral site, the coaching and execution gap in critical moments heavily favors Kansas City. The trends in this series are too strong to ignore, particularly the Chargers' inability to win as underdogs and their struggles to cover against their division rival.
Picks:
- ATS: Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-111)
- Over/Under: Under 47 (-115)
- Player Prop: Travis Kelce Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Public Betting Splits
Public betting for this Week 1 showcase is heavily favoring the Chiefs. Approximately 65% of spread bets are on the Kansas City Chiefs to cover the -3 spread. However, reports suggest that some sharp money has come in on the Chargers at +3.5 before the line moved, indicating professional bettors see value in the underdog's ability to keep the game within a field goal.