Bengals vs Broncos Betting Preview: MNF Odds, Picks & Player Props

The second game of the Week 4 Monday Night Football doubleheader features two struggling AFC teams trying to stay in the mix and give themselves a shot at postseason runs. Before kickoff arrives, get the best Bengals vs Broncos betting preview here to place wagers on the primetime matchup.

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• The Bengals enter this road contest severely shorthanded, already without their superstar QB Joe Burrow. Starting TE Noah Fant (concussion) and DE Shemar Stewart (ankle) are also ruled out. These key injuries significantly hamper an offense that has excelled in the red zone (75% success) and a defense that will struggle to generate pressure, creating a major mismatch against a healthier Broncos team.
• Betting markets have moved overwhelmingly in Denver's favor, with the Broncos' moneyline shifting from (-303) to (-455), supported by 97.79% of the total money wagered at BetMGM. This aligns with Denver's dominant trends at home, where they have won their last six games and are 7-1 ATS in their last eight contests as a home favorite.
• The most likely game script points to a clock-controlling, defensive battle. Denver is expected to lean on its run game against a depleted Bengals front, making the Under 44.5 a primary play. The top betting recommendations are Denver (-7.5) and player props centered on J.K. Dobbins, who is in a prime position to find the end zone (-140 Anytime TD).

A pivotal Monday Night Football clash concludes Week 4 as two teams desperate for momentum, the Bengals and Broncos, face off under the lights. Both squads enter with identical early-season records, making this conference showdown a critical early-season inflection point. The primary storyline revolves around a stark contrast in circumstances: the Broncos return to Empower Field at Mile High, a venue where they have won their last six games, looking to assert their dominance against a Bengals team that is not only playing on the road but is significantly shorthanded by injuries to key starters.

The quarterback battle pits two passers with very similar statistical outputs against one another, though they face vastly different situations. Denver's Bo Nix has guided his team through the early season, completing 67.5% of his passes for 620 yards with a competitive touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has the benefit of playing in a friendly environment where his team has thrived. On the other side, Cincinnati's Jake Browning has also been at the helm for the early season after Burrow went down, completing 65.6% of his throws for 597 yards, but with a more volatile TD-to-INT ratio. Browning faces the unenviable task of leading a banged-up offense into one of the league's toughest road venues.

This comprehensive betting preview will dissect every angle of this primetime matchup, diving deep into the current odds and analyzing how the market has moved, breaking down the critical injury situations, and identifying the key on-field matchups that will decide the game. Furthermore, we'll provide an in-depth analysis of the best player prop bets before delivering our final prediction and top picks.

Bengals vs Broncos Betting Preview

A key Week 4 conference game is set to unfold as the Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) visit the Denver Broncos (1-2). The showdown will take place at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 pm ET. The weather forecast for the outdoor contest calls for partly cloudy skies and a light 7 mph NNE wind.

This matchup pits two teams with distinct statistical profiles against one another. While the Broncos have put up more points per game (22.7 to 19.3) and generated more total yards per game (302.0), the Bengals have showcased superior situational efficiency.

Cincinnati excels on crucial downs, converting 41% of its third-down attempts and boasting an impressive 75% success rate in the red zone. The Broncos, meanwhile, have been less effective in those areas, converting at 32.4% on third down and 62.5% in the red zone. Both teams have protected the football well, with the Bengals holding a +4 turnover differential and the Broncos at +2, making ball security a critical factor in this game.

Bengals vs Broncos Betting Odds

The Broncos enter this Monday night contest as significant home favorites. The point spread is set at 7.5 points, with the Broncos favored to win by more than a touchdown. The moneyline reflects this, with Denver listed at (-455), implying a high probability of a straight-up victory. The total for the game is set at 44.5 points, with slightly more value on the under at (-115).

Odds as of September 29 3:54 p.m. ET from MGM.

The current moneyline suggests a lopsided affair, with the market giving the Broncos a strong edge. After removing the vig, the implied probability for this matchup is approximately Broncos 78.7% and Bengals 21.3%.

However, betting trends present a conflicting picture. While the Broncos have been dominant at home—winning their last six games there and covering the spread in seven of their last eight as home favorites—they have struggled this season, posting an 0-3 record against the spread (ATS) overall and 0-2 ATS as a favorite. Conversely, the Bengals have a strong recent history against Denver, going 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings. Bettors will have to weigh Denver's strong historical home-field advantage against their poor start to the current season. The total points line is also intriguing, as the over has hit in each of the Bengals' last four road games as an underdog, while the under has hit in four of the Broncos' last five home contests.

Bengals vs Broncos Odds Movement & Analysis

The betting market has seen significant movement since the opening lines were released, painting a clear picture of how money is flowing for this Monday night matchup. The most substantial shift has occurred on the moneyline, where the Broncos opened as (-303) favorites and have since been bet all the way up to (-455). Consequently, the Bengals have seen their underdog price drift from (+240) to a more enticing +350. This heavy action on the Broncos' moneyline suggests strong confidence from bettors in a straight-up Denver victory, likely influenced by their dominant trends at home, where they have won their last six games.

In contrast, the point spread has remained remarkably stable, opening at (-7.5) and holding firm at that key number. This indicates that while bettors are comfortable backing a Denver win, there is more hesitation about their ability to cover a spread of more than a touchdown, a notion supported by their 0-3 ATS record this season.

The game total has also seen notable movement, dropping a full point from its opening number of 45.5 down to 44.5. Furthermore, the juice on the under has shifted from (-110) to (-115), signaling that the majority of money is backing a lower-scoring affair. This trend aligns with Denver's recent home games, where the under has hit in four of their last five contests.

Moneyline Analysis: The drastic shift from (-303) to (-455) on the Broncos indicates overwhelming public and likely sharp money on the home favorite. The value on a Denver win has been significantly diminished, while the potential payout for a Bengals upset has grown substantially.

Value & Strategy: For Broncos backers, the moneyline is now too expensive for most straight bets. The value play is on the Broncos -7.5 (-110), banking on their historical dominance in this spot (7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite) to overcome their poor start to the current season. For Bengals backers, patience has paid off. The Bengals moneyline at (+350) offers significant upside compared to its (+240) opener. For a more conservative approach, taking the Bengals +7.5 (-110) provides a touchdown-plus cushion, a valuable position given their 3-1 ATS record in the last four meetings with Denver. Totals bettors have seen the market move decidedly toward the under. While the opening number of 45.5 is gone, the Under 44.5 (-115) is still supported by strong trends, particularly Denver's defensive performances at home.

Bengals vs Broncos Injury Report

Both teams enter Monday's game with significant names on the injury report, but the Bengals are facing more pressing concerns. The Broncos appear to be the healthier squad, though they are monitoring a key offensive player.

For Cincinnati, the most notable absences are on both sides of the ball. Obviously, Joe Burrow will miss the game with a turf toe injury that required surgery to repair. Tight end Noah Fant did not participate in practice due to a concussion, and defensive end Shemar Stewart was also sidelined with an ankle injury. Their unavailability removes a key pass-catching option and a starting defensive lineman, creating significant voids.

The Broncos are relatively healthy, with The Broncos are relatively healthy, with key players like LB Alex Singleton (Thumb) practicing in full. However, wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. was limited with a hip injury, leaving his status for the game uncertain.

The injuries to Fant and Stewart are major blows for the Bengals. Fant's absence is particularly damaging to an offense that relies on efficiency in key situations. Without their starting tight end, Cincinnati's impressive 75.0% red zone conversion rate will be put to the test. Defensively, losing Stewart makes it tougher to generate pressure, a critical task against a team looking to establish dominance at home.

For the Broncos, the primary concern is the health of Marvin Mims Jr. His status is crucial for Denver's game plan. If active, his speed can stretch the field and open up underneath routes. If he can't go, the offensive burden will fall more heavily on TE Evan Engram and other receivers. The fact that the rest of Denver's key contributors practiced in full gives them a significant health advantage heading into this Monday night showdown. These injury situations, especially Cincinnati's, likely contribute to the heavy betting line movement in Denver's favor.

Bengals vs Broncos – Key Matchups to Watch

This Monday night clash will be decided by several critical one-on-one and unit-vs-unit battles across the field. The game's outcome will likely hinge on which team can best exploit the other's weaknesses, particularly those created by recent injuries.

Quarterback vs Pass Defense

The chess match between the quarterbacks and the opposing pass defenses presents a fascinating contrast. For the Bengals, the offense relies on situational efficiency. Their ability to convert 41.0% of their third downs will be tested against a stout Denver defense that thrives at home. The Bengals' offense has also been excellent at protecting the football, contributing to a team-wide +4 turnover differential.

On the other side, the Broncos offense has generated more total yards per game (302.0) but has been far less effective on crucial downs, converting at a rate of just 32.4%. However, they face a Bengals pass rush that will be severely hampered by the absence of starting defensive end Shemar Stewart. This could provide the Broncos' quarterback with extra time in the pocket to find receivers and attack a Bengals secondary that has been opportunistic all season.

Running Game vs Run Defense

The battle in the trenches will be pivotal, especially in the red zone. The Bengals have been remarkably successful inside the 20-yard line, scoring on 75.0% of their trips. However, their running game, led by veterans like Chase Brown, faces a deep Denver defensive line. The Bengals' offensive struggles with time of possession, averaging just 26:41 per game, put immense pressure on them to be efficient when they do have the ball.

The Denver Broncos will look to establish their ground game to control the clock and exploit a Cincinnati defensive front missing a key starter. While Denver's red zone efficiency (62.5%) is solid, it pales in comparison to the Bengals' mark. Winning the line of scrimmage against a depleted Bengals front seven will be crucial for the Broncos to sustain drives and keep Cincinnati's potent offense on the sideline.

Pass Catchers vs Secondary

This is arguably the marquee matchup of the game. The Bengals boast one of the league's most formidable receiving duos in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Their ability to win one-on-one matchups is the engine of the Cincinnati offense. However, the unit takes a significant hit with TE Noah Fant ruled out with a concussion. His absence will be felt most in the middle of the field and in the red zone, putting more pressure on Mike Gesicki and the star wideouts.

The Broncos' passing attack faces uncertainty with the status of their primary deep threat, WR Marvin Mims Jr., who is questionable with a hip injury. If he is limited or out, the offensive focus will likely shift to TE Evan Engram and possession receivers. This would play into the hands of a ball-hawking Bengals secondary, featuring players like Cam Taylor-Britt and Dax Hill, that has been central to the team's +4 turnover margin.

Offensive Line vs Pass Rush

The outcome of this game could very well be decided here. The Cincinnati Bengals' offensive line, anchored by tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and center Ted Karras, must hold up against the pressure of the Denver pass rush in a hostile road environment. If they can provide a clean pocket, the Bengals have proven they can move the chains. The potential absence of Broncos DL John Franklin-Myers would be a slight reprieve, but Denver's unit has depth.

For the Denver Broncos' offensive line, the mission is clear: neutralize Bengals star DE Trey Hendrickson. With Shemar Stewart out, Hendrickson is Cincinnati's most significant pass-rushing threat. If the Broncos can contain him and control the line of scrimmage, they will negate Cincinnati's primary defensive advantage and create the clean pocket needed to attack downfield, thereby putting immense strain on the Bengals' secondary.

Bengals vs Broncos Passing Props

The quarterback duel in this Monday night contest features two passers with nearly identical yardage props but vastly different expectations in other key categories. Denver's Bo Nix and Cincinnati's Jake Browning both have their passing yards lines set in the low 220s, but the markets for touchdowns and interceptions tell a more detailed story about the projected game script.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: Nix enters the game with a passing line of 222.5 yards. While his yardage total is a coin flip, his touchdown prop offers intriguing value. The Over 1.5 Passing TDs is priced at an even (+100), a favorable number for a quarterback on a team favored by more than a touchdown at home. This is particularly noteworthy as he faces a Bengals defensive front that will be without starting DE Shemar Stewart, which could afford Nix extra time in the pocket to operate.

However, the potential limitation or absence of deep-threat Marvin Mims could lead to a more conservative game plan, making the Under 31.5 Pass Attempts (-120) a solid look. The market is also uncertain about a turnover, with his interception prop nearly evenly priced, though the Bengals' opportunistic secondary (+4 turnover differential) will be looking to make a game-changing play.

Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals: The betting market paints a tough picture for Jake Browning. His passing yards line is set at 218.5, but the real story is in his touchdown and interception props. The line for Under 1.5 Passing TDs is heavily juiced to (-189), indicating a strong expectation that he will struggle to find the end zone through the air.

This aligns with the absence of TE Noah Fant, a key red zone target for an offense that has excelled in that area (75.0% success rate). Furthermore, the odds for Browning to throw an interception are a steep (-182) on the Over 0.5. Playing on the road against a tough Denver home defense, as a significant underdog, suggests Browning will be under pressure all night, making a turnover seem highly probable to the oddsmakers.

Bengals vs Broncos Rushing & Receiving Props

The player prop market for this matchup highlights the anticipated game script, with Denver's primary weapons having higher expectations than Cincinnati's stars. The Broncos' lead back, J.K. Dobbins, is projected for a solid workload, while Bengals receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins face modest lines, reflecting their tough road matchup and the absence of key offensive teammates.

NFL player props as of September 29 from MGM.

Denver Broncos: J.K. Dobbins stands as the market's most confident play, with his Anytime TD prop set at (-140). His rushing line of 64.5 yards is paired with an attempts prop of 14.5 (Over -128), suggesting a game plan centered on controlling the clock. Facing a Bengals defensive line without Shemar Stewart, Dobbins is in a prime position to have a productive evening as the focal point of the Broncos' offense.

For receivers, Courtland Sutton's receiving line is set at a team-high 65.5 yards. With Marvin Mims Jr. (questionable) potentially sidelined, Sutton will be the undisputed top target. Bettors can find value on his receptions Over 5.5 at (+100). This could also mean a bigger role for rookie Troy Franklin, whose receiving line is 40.5 yards. If Mims is out, Franklin becomes a viable candidate to exceed his yardage total.

Cincinnati Bengals: Chase Brown faces a tough scenario as the lead back. His Rushing + Receiving line of 74.5 yards may be difficult to hit if the Bengals are playing from behind. However, his involvement in the passing game provides a secondary path to production. The heavy juice on his receptions Over 2.5 (-167) indicates he's expected to be a primary check-down option for a pressured Jake Browning. For Cincinnati's star receivers, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the lines are surprisingly low.

Chase's line is just 65.5 yards, and Higgins is at 51.5 yards. These numbers are a direct reflection of the difficult road environment and the market's skepticism about their quarterback. The absence of tight end Noah Fant could mean more targets are funneled to the outside, but it also allows the Denver secondary to key in on them. For those who believe in talent over situation, the Over on these lines offers value against depressed market expectations.

Mike Gesicki, stepping in for the injured Noah Fant, has modest props: 22.5 receiving yards and 2.5 receptions. Given Fant's role in Cincinnati's highly efficient red zone offense, Gesicki could become a crucial target in key situations and has a strong chance to exceed these low totals.

Bengals vs Broncos Picks & Prediction

This Monday night showdown appears to be a classic case of a dominant home team catching an injury-plagued opponent at the perfect time. While the Bengals have shown impressive situational efficiency, the losses of key contributors on both sides of the ball are simply too significant to overcome in a hostile environment like Mile High. The Broncos' game plan should be straightforward: control the clock with the run game and force a pressured Jake Browning into mistakes. Denver's offense, while less efficient on third down (32.4%), faces a Cincinnati defensive front that is now vulnerable without Stewart, which should give QB Bo Nix a cleaner pocket to operate from.

The Bengals' entire offensive identity, built on a +4 turnover differential and an elite 75% red zone success rate, is under threat. Without Fant, their most reliable middle-of-the-field and red-zone target, that efficiency is likely to regress against a tough Denver defense. The market has priced in a rough night for Browning, juicing his interception prop to (-182), and for good reason. He'll be playing from behind against a team that is historically dominant in this spot. The Broncos are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite, a trend that carries significant weight despite their 0-3 ATS start to this season.

Ultimately, the matchup favors Denver in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Expect the Broncos to lean heavily on J.K. Dobbins, exploit Cincinnati's low time of possession (26:41), and wear down their defense. This game script strongly supports a lower-scoring contest, aligning with the trend of the under hitting in four of Denver's last five home games.

Against the Spread (ATS): Denver Broncos -7.5 (-110). The Bengals' key injuries are too much to overcome on the road. Denver's historical dominance as a home favorite should shine through.

Over/Under: Under 44.5 (-115). With Cincinnati's red zone threat diminished and Denver likely to control the clock on the ground, points will be at a premium.

Best Player Prop: J.K. Dobbins Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-140). As the focal point of a ground-heavy attack for a team favored by more than a touchdown, Dobbins is in a prime position to find the end zone.

Same Game Parlay Suggestion: Broncos Moneyline + Under 44.5 Points + J.K. Dobbins 50+ Rushing Yards (+170). This parlay captures the game script of a convincing, low-scoring Denver win led by their running game.