TL;DR
- Week 13 Thanksgiving games have significant playoff implications for all matchups.
- Sebastian Carl's simulations project playoff probabilities based on win-loss records and tiebreakers.
- Texans, Lions, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers, and Steelers have the most to gain or lose this week.
- Key games like Chiefs vs. Cowboys could drastically alter playoff chances for both teams.
The 13th week features a fantastic lineup of Thursday Thanksgiving contests, each holding significant consequences for the playoff picture.
Although most years feature at least one Thanksgiving Day game that's a disappointment in the grand scheme of things, every matchup this year holds significant weight. The combination of Packers vs. Lions, Chiefs vs. Cowboys, and Bengals vs. Ravens presents a trio that would be difficult to surpass. The highly anticipated contest in Dallas might even challenge the all-time record for most-watched NFL Thanksgiving game.
And this is all before getting into the rest of a loaded Week 13 slate.
Frankly, we're still quite a ways from pinpointing exact playoff possibilities for each team. Beyond the head-to-head tiebreakers that have already been settled, numerous factors remain in play, making it impossible to map out concrete routes to the postseason at this time.
However, it's still feasible to forecast playoff probabilities for each team based solely on their win-loss record. This is where the unyielding Sebastian Carl proves valuable. Carl, an engineering prodigy who also excels in NFL analytics, offers weekly playoff leverage projections all season long (among his many other contributions). You're able to follow him @mrcaseb on X.
Sebastian runs 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the season to estimate a team's playoff probability, considering each weekly win or loss. These simulations incorporate tiebreakers, the remaining strength of schedule, and various other elements.
Here are the Week 13 numbers in graphic form.
-- WEEK 13 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
— Sebastian (@mrcaseb) November 25, 2025
This visual demonstrates how each team's playoff chances fluctuate based on the outcome of their upcoming match. Pic.twitter.com/RjeK6Nqz3v
I'll drop all of those numbers in a table at the bottom but a few key observations:
- This week, the Texans, Lions, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers, and Steelers are the six teams with the most to gain or lose. Each of these teams sees at least a 30% shift in their playoff odds depending on whether they win or lose in Week 13.
- The Cowboys are in a must-win situation. A defeat would reduce their playoff prospects to a mere 7%. However, securing a victory over the Chiefs would elevate their chances to 29%, offering more than a slim possibility.
- A defeat in Dallas would see the Chiefs' playoff chances fall below fifty percent, even though it's not an elimination game. The improbable scenario of a postseason without Patrick Mahomes becomes a possibility should they lose.
- A victory would give the Packers, Bills, Colts, 49ers, and Seahawks a minimum 90% probability of qualifying.
- Even with a loss, the Broncos are still in good shape in the AFC West.
Here are all the Week 13 scenarios for every team with at least a 5% probability of advancing if they secure a victory, ordered by the highest to lowest stakes involved.
| Team | With W | With L | Diff | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 26% | 63% | 37% | at Colts |
| Jaguars | 45% | 79% | 34% | at Titans |
| Lions | 55% | 85% | 30% | Packers |
| Chiefs | 43% | 73% | 30% | at Cowboys |
| Chargers | 35% | 65% | 30% | Raiders |
| Steelers | 30% | 60% | 30% | Bills |
| Bills | 64% | 92% | 28% | at Steelers |
| Packers | 65% | 92% | 27% | at Lions |
| Bears | 55% | 82% | 27% | at Eagles |
| Colts | 71% | 95% | 24% | Texans |
| Ravens | 57% | 81% | 24% | Bengals |
| 49ers | 67% | 90% | 23% | at Browns |
| Cowboys | 7% | 29% | 22% | Chiefs |
| Seahawks | 73% | 93% | 20% | Vikings |
| Panthers | 17% | 35% | 18% | Rams |
| Buccaneers | 66% | 83% | 17% | at Bucs |
| Broncos | 91% | 98% | 7% | at Commanders |
| Falcons | 1% | 6% | 5% | at Jets |
| Eagles | 96% | 99.7% | 3.7% | Bears |
| Rams | 96% | 99.6% | 3.6% | at Panthers |
| Patriots | 97 | 99.9% | 2.9% | Giants |
Naturally, these exact figures don't depend on the outcomes of other games. For instance, if the Chiefs were to win and the Broncos and Chargers were to lose, the playoff probability would exceed the 73% figure shown here.
Considering the sheer multitude of potential results, even this restricted perspective effectively highlights how crucial each match is.
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