Here are Chiefs' updated playoff odds based on win or loss vs. Texans in Week 14

Micah Adams

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Here are Chiefs' updated playoff odds based on win or loss vs. Texans in Week 14 image

The floundering Chiefs officially reached the 'must win' portion of their season.

Fresh off yet another disappointing one-score loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, yet another close game the three-time defending AFC champions could have won, Kansas City sits at just 6-6. If you thought things were desperate heading into Dallas, the latest playoff projections paint a far more sobering outlook.

While there are a number of factors at play, one of the easiest ways to gauge the importance of individual games heading into each comes via Sebastian Carl (follow @mrcaseb on X), an NFL modeling wiz who provides leverage data for every game.

What does that mean in English? Based on 50,000 simulations which takes into account remaining schedules and tiebreakers among many other things, he calculates the chance every team has of making the playoffs based on a win or loss that week and independent of other results. 

MORE: Full NFL playoff picture | Updated 2026 draft order

(Editor's note: For the record, I am a massive nerd so the use of that in this very headline is meant to be endearing.)

Here are the Chiefs' chances to make the playoffs:

  • With win: 59%
  • With loss: 15%

So while KC isn't mathematically eliminated with a loss, any realistic hope vanishes into thin air if it isn't able to get by Houston's stifling defense on Sunday.

Here's the entire league-wide view for Week 14:

 

Chiefs playoff tiebreakers

As it stands, the Chiefs are two games back of the Wild Card and in some cases effectively three games back based on tiebreakers.

Here are the tiebreakers by team as it currently stands:

  • KC loses tiebreaker to 8-4 Jaguars via Week 5 loss
  • KC loses tiebreaker to 8-4 Bills via Week 9 loss
  • KC owns tiebreaker to 8-4 Colts via Week 12 win

Obviously, Sunday's result will determine the head-to-head tiebreaker with the 7-5 Texans, who like the Chiefs, also sit on the outside looking in. Should the Chiefs get by Houston, they will face another likely must-win game against the Chargers after dropping the season-opener. With the Broncos starting to run away with the AFC West at 10-2, the Chiefs can ill afford to also lose the tiebreaker to the Chargers.

Chiefs fans should be rooting for the Jaguars to stay atop the AFC South. A win on Sunday would give KC head-to-head tiebreakers over both the Texans and Colts.

There's still plenty of work to be done even with a win but Week 14 is shaping up to be the most pivotal regular season game in years for Andy Reid and Co.

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