Is it possible to have a “must win” game in the third week of September? For the Houston Texans, the short answer is yes.
At 0–2, history offers little comfort. Over the past 35 years, only about 12% of teams to start 0–2 have clawed their way into the postseason. Fall to 0–3, and the odds all but vanish. Fewer than 3% of clubs have recovered from that hole. This feels like Groundhog Day for Houston fans; it's just a cycle of frustration replaying in the loop.
Stop me if you’ve seen this before: a nationally televised Texans game, miscues piling up, misery slowly unfolding. Last year, it was Halloween night, then Christmas night. Even at home, Houston has stumbled, the latest letdown coming against the Buccaneers. The troubling question is whether the DeMeco Ryans–C.J. Stroud pairing peaked in 2023. Since last December’s win over Miami, the Texans have dropped five of their previous seven.
NICK CHUBB'S FIRST TOUCHDOWN AS A TEXAN!
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) September 16, 2025
📺: @espnnfl / @ABC13houston pic.twitter.com/6KsZJF7gi1
The run game has evaporated, save for the occasional Nick Chubb highlight. When Nick Caserio built this offense, it was supposed to feature Joe Mixon, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs. Instead, Mixon and Dell are sidelined, and Diggs catches passes in Foxboro. The formula against Houston is painfully simple: don’t let Nico Collins beat you, and pressure Stroud. The line has been another sore spot. Laremy Tunsil, for all his false-start hiccups, was a Pro Bowl-level anchor. Before him, Duane Brown held the same standard. Now, the protection and push up front are shadows of their former selves.
Adding injury to insult, the Colts are 2–0 for the first time since 2009, erasing the luxury Houston had during Ryans’ first season when the AFC South was a “fastest turtle wins” division. If Indianapolis keeps rolling and the Texans lose Sunday to Jacksonville, the standings may already be out of reach.
Should Houston fall to 0–3, the conversation will shift quickly. Fans will begin eyeing April’s draft, with names like Utah’s Spencer Fano or Miami’s Francis Mauigoa being linked to Houston as potential franchise linemen. It’s only Week 3. But for the Texans, this meeting with Jacksonville already feels like a season’s turning point. A win keeps the playoffs alive; a loss leaves only the long, loud talk of starting over.
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