The college football season rolls along today with a massive rivalry game in the Midwest. Get all the details with this Iowa vs. Iowa State betting preview as the Cy-Hawk Trophy is on the line.
- Iowa State enters as a home favorite, riding the momentum of QB Rocco Becht's record-setting start and a top-20 ranking.
- Iowa has dominated this rivalry in Ames, winning six straight at Jack Trice Stadium, and brings a punishing ground game paired with an elite defense.
- The betting total has plummeted from 45.5 to 41.5, setting up for a classic, low-scoring Cy-Hawk defensive brawl.
The battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy reignites as the No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones host their bitter in-state rival, the Iowa Hawkeyes, and this one sets up as a true clash of contrasting styles. Iowa State stormed out of the gates, with quarterback Rocco Becht orchestrating a high-powered offense. Through two games, Becht has been terrific, completing 69.8% of his passes for 489 yards and a pristine 5-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His efficiency has the Cyclones looking like a legitimate Big 12 contender.
On the other sideline, the Iowa Hawkeyes counter with their trademark formula: a suffocating defense and a methodical, ground-and-pound offense. Transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski is still settling in after throwing for just 48 yards and a TD in his debut as the Hawkeyes bulldozed Albany for 310 rushing yards in their season opener.
This matchup presents a classic strength-on-strength test: can Becht's ascendant passing attack solve an Iowa defense that perennially ranks among the nation's elite? This preview will dissect the odds, key matchups, and matchups to watch to provide the best betting angles for this heated rivalry showdown.
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Iowa vs. Iowa State Betting Preview
The Hawkeyes (1-0) are on the road today to face the Cyclones (2-0) in the annual Cy-Hawk rivalry game. Kickoff is set for noon ET from Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. The game will be broadcast nationally on FOX. The Hawkeyes have won seven of the last nine meetings.
Iowa vs. Iowa State Odds
| Bet Type | Iowa Hawkeyes | Iowa State Cyclones |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-115) | -3.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +138 | -164 |
| Total Points | Over 41.5 (-108) | Under 41.5 (-112) |
Odds as of September 6, 2025 from BetMGM.
The odds position the Cyclones as a (-3.5) favorite at home, a reflection of their explosive start to the season. The (-164) moneyline implies a 62.1% win probability for the Cyclones.
The total of 41.5 points indicates the market's respect for Iowa's defense and the historically gritty, low-scoring nature of this rivalry. Bettors should note that Iowa has thrived in the underdog role in this series, particularly on the road.
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Odds Movement & Analysis
This market has seen significant movement since opening, particularly on the spread and total. The Iowa State Cyclones opened as just a 1.5-point favorite but have been bet up to -3.5, crossing the key number of three. This two-point shift suggests that early and sharp money has backed the home team, as the college football betting public is clearly impressed by their offensive efficiency and blowout wins over Kansas State and South Dakota.
Even more dramatic has been the plunge in the game total, which opened at 45.5 and has been hammered down to 41.5. This four-point drop is substantial and is likely a direct result of mainly two things: the dominance of Iowa's defense, and the historical trend of this rivalry producing defensive struggles. Bettors who liked the under missed the best number, but the current line still reflects a game where points are expected to be at a premium. The value may now lie in looking at how Iowa State's offense can counter a defense that the market so heavily respects.
Iowa vs. Iowa State – Key Matchups to Watch
Becht vs. Iowa Pass Defense
This is the game's premier matchup. Iowa State quarterback Becht is playing with supreme confidence, averaging 244.5 passing yards per game with a 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio and a 178.45 QB rating. That being said, he hasn't faced a secondary like Iowa's, which allowed a mere 134 passing yards in its opener and is built on disciplined zone coverage that baits quarterbacks into mistakes.
Iowa's defense forces passers off their first read and excels at generating pressure without excessive blitzing. Becht's ability to make quick, decisive throws will be tested against a unit designed to punish even the slightest hesitation.
Iowa Running Game vs. Iowa State Run Defense
The Hawkeyes' offensive identity is clear: establish the run. They steamrolled their first opponent for 310 rushing yards, led by Redshirt Freshman Xavier Williams. They will look to impose their will on an Iowa State front that has been stout, allowing just 96.5 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry. If the Cyclones' front seven can control the line of scrimmage and force Iowa into obvious passing situations, it will put immense pressure on quarterback Gronowski.
Should the Hawkeyes have success running the ball, consistently churning out 4-5 yards per carry, it will give them the ability to control the clock, dictate the game's tempo, and keep Becht on the sideline.
Iowa State Pass Catchers vs. Iowa Secondary
Jaylin Noel and Daniel Jackson provide Iowa State with a dynamic receiving duo capable of winning in different ways. Noel is a precise route-runner who can easily create separation, while Jackson is a contested-catch specialist. They face an Iowa secondary that is traditionally physical and fundamentally sound.
The battle on the perimeter is critical, if Iowa State's receivers can win their one-on-one matchups, it will open up the entire offense. If Iowa's defensive backs can jam them at the line and disrupt timing, it will suffocate the Cyclones' passing attack.
Iowa State Offensive Line vs. Iowa Pass Rush
While Rocco Becht has been efficient, his offensive line has only allowed four sacks through two games. They will face their toughest test against an Iowa defensive front that has a knack for disrupting the pocket. The Hawkeyes generated 29 sacks last season and are known for their technical prowess and relentless motor. If Iowa State's line can give Becht a clean pocket, he has proven he can pick a defense apart. The Hawkeye pass rush will aim to collapse the pocket and force Becht into uncomfortable situations.
Iowa State-Iowa Player Props
Becht's passing yardage prop is set at 236.5, just below his season average of 244.5. This line reflects the stiff challenge posed by the Iowa defense.
The juice on his touchdown prop heavily favors the under 1.5, as Iowa's defense is elite in the red zone and allowed only 20 passing touchdowns all of last season. For Becht to hit the over on his yardage, he'll need to connect on a few explosive plays, as methodical drives are tough to sustain against the Hawkeyes.
Rushing & Receiving Props
| Player | Rushing Yards | Receiving Yards | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Hansen (ISU) | 51.5 (O -120 | U -114) | N/A | Yes +107 | No -140 |
| Terrell Washington (IOWA) | 52.5 (O -114 | U -114) | N/A | Yes +148 | No -195 |
| Gabe Burkle (ISU) | N/A | 33.5 (O -114 | U -114) | Yes +265 | No -370 |
| Jacob Gill (IOWA) | N/A | 23.5 (O -114 | U -120) | Yes +355 | No -525 |
The rushing props for both Hansen and Washington are set in the low 50s, indicating that yards will be tough to come by against these formidable run defenses. Washington's line seems particularly attainable given Iowa's commitment to the ground game.
The receiving props are low across the board, with tight end Burkle's 33.5 yards leading the way. This further reinforces the expectation of a defensive battle where chunk plays through the air will be rare.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Iowa State Final Prediction
This edition of the Cy-Hawk rivalry pits a surging, confident Iowa State offense against the unyielding force of the Iowa Hawkeyes defense. While analytics and early-season form favor the Cyclones, history casts a long shadow over this matchup. Iowa has won six straight games at Jack Trice Stadium, a remarkable trend that speaks to their ability to neutralize hostile environments with a disciplined, physical brand of football.
The Hawkeyes are built to win games exactly like this: control the line of scrimmage, win the field position battle, and force the opponent's quarterback into critical errors.
Becht has been exceptional for Iowa State, but the Iowa defense is a different beast than what he has faced. Their ability to generate pressure with their front four while playing sound coverage on the back end will be his toughest test to date. The key will be whether Iowa State's offensive line can protect him.
On the other side, Iowa's offense is one-dimensional but effective. They will relentlessly attack the Cyclones' run defense, and if they find success, they can bleed the clock and keep the potent ISU offense on the sidelines. The trend of the road team winning the last five matchups in this series is too powerful to ignore. Iowa's defense travels, and their style is perfectly suited to winning a low-scoring, gritty affair. In a game projected to be this close, taking the points with the team that has historically dominated this specific road environment is the smarter play.
Picks:
- ATS: Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5 (-115)
- Total: Under 41.5 (-112)
- Player Prop: Terrell Washington Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Public Betting
| Bet Type | Handle % (Money) | Bet % (Tickets) |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa State 55% | Iowa 52% |
| Moneyline | Iowa State 60% | Iowa State 65% |
| Total Points | Under 70% | Under 65% |
Note: Data reflects a snapshot of public betting trends and may not include all sharp money.
The betting splits indicate a slight disagreement between the money and the ticket count on the spread, with more money backing Iowa State but more individual bets on Iowa.
The moneyline and total show more alignment, with the public backing the favorite Cyclones and overwhelmingly betting the under, contributing to the significant line drop.
Recent History: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa has had a stranglehold on this NCAAF rivalry for the better part of a decade, winning seven of the last nine meetings. Their dominance is even more pronounced in Ames, where they have not lost since 2011, winning six consecutive games at Jack Trice Stadium.
These contests are notoriously close and hard-fought; 11 of the last 13 matchups have been decided by 10 points or fewer, with five of the last seven being one-score games. This history suggests that despite Iowa State's current form and ranking, bettors should expect a tight, physical game that likely comes down to the final possessions.