There is nothing quite like calling your shot on a college football upset prediction. The odds are always going to be in your favor when you are betting underdogs, which means larger payouts for these bold picks.
Below, we will detail our three favorite college football upset picks for Week 5. Sign up on FanDuel, ESPN BET and DraftKings to place these wagers.
| CFB Upset Pick | Odds |
| Marshall Moneyline | +100 on FanDuel |
| Alabama Moneyline | +140 on ESPN BET |
| UCLA Moneyline | +195 on DraftKings |
Marshall Wins in Louisiana
This is as light of an upset as it possibly gets at +100 odds, but Louisiana is still the favored team here with Marshall as the underdog, so it still does technically count for our purposes. This game features one of the biggest mismatches in the Havoc stat, which has been brought up a couple times, but if you are not aware Havoc measures disruptive plays created by the defense, specifically tackles for loss (TFLs), forced fumbles, interceptions, and passes defensed (PBUs), which are summed and divided by the total number of plays to create the havoc rate.
On the flip side, Havoc allowed, measures the same plays but from the offense's perspective, indicating how many such disruptive plays they allow. So, we are essentially looking at what defenses cause the most disruption to the opposing offense, and what offenses allow defenses to disrupt them the most on the other side.
Louisiana has really struggled since losing their starting QB to a torn oblique, and it does not help that they have struggled on the offensive line as well. They rank 122nd in terms of Havoc allowed, while the Marshall defense ranks 15th in Havoc, as one of the biggest mismatches of the college football slate today.
Unfortunately for Louisiana, the same mismatch exists on the other side of the ball as well, albeit not quite as dramatic. Louisiana ranks 133rd in Havoc defensively, while Marshall is 54th. Marshall runs the ball effectively, while Louisiana is one of the worst defenses in the nation stopping the run. Make this upset pick using college football betting bonuses on FanDuel.
Alabama Wins SEC Battle Against Georgia
As one of the two biggest games of the day, it would have felt wrong to not have a play in one of them, and the Alabama Crimson Tide have a great opportunity to upset Georgia in Athens on Saturday. Despite a gross loss against Florida State at the beginning of the year, Alabama grades out better than the Georgia Bulldogs in a lot of advanced metrics.
According to schedule adjusted EPA per play, Alabama is 8th in the nation while Georgia is down to 31st. Despite the 3-0 record overall, Georgia is 0-3 against the spread and just allowed 41 points to Tennessee two weeks ago.
Overall, the Georgia defense, which is supposed to be their calling card, ranks 101st in the country in pass defense success rate. Now, they are facing an Alabama offense that has been very good, led by Ty Simpson. He has an adjusted completion percentage of 82% and has not to record a turnover-worthy play.
The Alabama offense also gets running back Jam Miller back, playing in his first game of the season. This is a huge deal, as he was fantastic last season, and gets to run behind an Alabama offensive line that has the 11th-best stuff rate in the nation.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama also gets DL Tim Keenan III for the first time this season, and the Alabama line in general should be able to create some pressure against a Georgia OL that has struggled. Alabama wins this one.
Struggling UCLA Gets the Job Done Against Northwestern
There is no doubt that UCLA has struggled immensely to start the season, but they get the fired head coach bump after DeShaun Foster got fired, and it is not as though Northwestern is some juggernaut either. They have looked lifeless in both of their FBS games this year. They did not score against Oregon until they were already down 34-0, scoring two garbage time touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and they also got routed by Tulane to the tune of 23-3 earlier this season.
While it certainly is not easy finding positives about UCLA, there are some matchups in their favor. The biggest issue for UCLA this season has been their OL and protecting their new QB Nico Iamaleava. He has been pressured on a remarkable 42% of his drop backs, which is truly an astounding number. Luckily, Northwestern does not really have the horses up front to pressure Iamaleava that way, and it is not as though he is completely devoid of talent.
He put up gaudy numbers in Tennessee last year, and, if even somewhat protected, should be able to put up something against a porous Northwestern defense.