The college football season rolls on this week, and I’m back hunting more upset picks. I’ve identified three underdogs to target on the moneyline, starting with Washington on the road versus Michigan. You won’t find any signature wins on the Huskies resume yet, but this Wolverines squad is completely overvalued by the market.
College Football Upset Picks for Week 8 Games
Check out these College Football upset picks to take your best shot at wagering on another huge Saturday of gridiron action. We're going with three moneyline bets spread out across separate kickoff windows for fans to follow along with these picks.
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Washington Wins Outright in Michigan
Let’s start with the advanced numbers. Washington grades out higher per SP+ than Michigan and ranks significantly better in offensive success metrics.
The Huskies are averaging over 33 points per game and 6.6 yards per play, and boast one of the nation’s best passing attacks. QB Desmond Williams Jr. has posted a 10-to-1 TD-to-INT rate so far, and ranks top-8 in completion percentage and yards per throw.
Washington also features a very competent rushing attack that averages 5.0 yards per carry and 160+ rushing yards per game. They’re well coached, convert third downs at an elite clip, and don’t turn the ball over.
Defensively, the Huskies specialize in stopping the run, and few teams want to pound the rock more often than the Wolverines. Washington has the run stuffers to force Michigan into a pass-heavy script, and I’m not convinced freshman Bryce Underwood can move the sticks.
Underwood is completing less than 60% of his throws this season and has just 5 passing touchdowns on his resume.
The Wolverines are fresh off an embarrassing loss to USC, where they coughed up 31 points and 489 yards. The Huskies have the offensive pieces to replicate that performance and leave Ann Arbor with a win.
Purdue Exposes Northwestern
Sticking in the Big Ten, where I’m betting Purdue brings Northwestern crashing back down to earth. Sure, the Wildcats are riding high after their shocking upset of Penn State, but it’s entirely possible the Nittany Lions were never as good as most people thought.
This is a major letdown spot for Northwestern, while the Boilermakers are sneakily playing much better than their record suggests. They’ve had Illinois and Minnesota on upset watch over the last two weeks, posting significantly better success metrics than the Fighting Illini, and outgaining the Golden Gophers by over 200 yards.
Unfortunately, turnovers and key injuries derailed those upset bids, but they’ll finally get the job done this week. The Wildcats are allowing 5.0 yards per carry, while Northwestern QB Preston Stone has the second-highest turnover-worthy play rate among starting FBS quarterbacks this season.
BYU Defends Home Turf vs. Utah
Last, but not least, I’m betting #15 BYU at home versus #23 Utah. The Utes' love has gone way too far, and for some reason, people are ignoring the fact that the Cougars don’t have a single glaring weakness.
BYU grades out in the top-26 on both sides of the ball, and has yet to lose this season. They just took down Arizona on the road last week, rushing for 258 yards in the process. Utah is most attackable on the ground, ranking outside the top-65 in rushing yards allowed per carry and per game.
That opens the door for another ceiling performance for the Cougars run game led by LJ Martin, who enters play averaging 6.5 yards per attempt with eight explosive rushes already.
Defensively, BYU is elite, ranking top 20 in scoring defense and yards allowed per game. They force turnovers at an exceptionally high rate and are limiting enemy offenses to a 30% third-down conversion rate. Getting off the field on third down will be paramount in this matchup, as the Utes boast the number one third-down offense.
As good as Utah has looked in recent weeks, don’t forget they were blown out by Texas Tech, the lone top-40 program they’ve faced. BYU is a major step up in competition from what they’ve seen since that loss, and I think the wrong team is favored in this contest.