It’s Week 4 of the College Football season, and we’ve got our eye on a few upset specials that should be on your betting card. The action will be underway shortly, so don't miss out on these College Football upset picks for betting on today's games.
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We’ll start in Volunteer country, where 15th-ranked Tennessee likely won’t lose to UAB, but they will need to put up massive numbers from beginning to end to cover a hefty spread.
3 College Football Upset Picks to Watch for Week 4
UAB (+39.5) vs Tennessee
I have no doubts that Tennessee will handle UAB, but the books have the Vols as a massive 39.5-point favorite.
This is a team that just kicked off its SEC slate with a gut-wrenching loss to Georgia, a game they should have won against a team they just cannot beat.
It was a draining, 44-41 OT loss, and now, the Vols jump out of conference play and gear down to take on their final non-SEC opponent of the year. The UAB Blazers aren’t great, but they’re far better than East Tennessee State, who the Vols crushed 72-17 in Week 2.
This matchup is also UAB’s lone scheduled game against a ranked team on the year. You know this has been circled on the calendar as a prove it game for weeks. On the other end, the Volunteers have Mississippi State looming, and a slew of big matchups that include Alabama and Oklahoma.
At 2-1, the Blazers are averaging 35.7 points per game on the year, and they have put up at least 24 points in every game this season. Tennessee currently sits last in the SEC in scoring defense, allowing 29 points per game.
Even if UAB scored just two touchdowns – which would constitute a season-low for them, that would require Tennessee to hang 54 on them to cover that monster spread.
In the 2020’s UAB has only lost by 40+ twice: once to Georgia in 2021-22 and last year’s 71-20 whipping at the hands of Tulane.
Purdue (+25.5) vs Notre Dame
Again, no thoughts about Notre Dame dropping to 0-3 on the season, as they’ve lost two pretty tough games against top tier competition. A few plays here and there, and they could very well have beaten no. 10 Miami and no. 16 Texas A&M.
Instead, they’ve lost by a combined total of four points, and host a Purdue team that looks less brittle than the one they hammered 66-7 on this field a year ago. The Boilermakers haven’t been world beaters, but they hung 30+ points on both Ball State and Southern Illinois, before dropping their first of the year to USC last week 33-17.
This season might already considered a success as they’ve matched their win total from all of last year, entering Week 4.
The Fighting Irish’s challenge will be to find a way to contain Boilermakers’ pivot Ryan Browne, who is completing 61.3% of his passes and has thrown for nearly 800 yards. And Notre Dame might have do it without stud corner Leonard Moore, who is dealing with an ankle injury.
Purdue is currently 34th in passing in the nation at 271.7 yards per game, while the Fighting Irish are 78th, allowing 282.5 per contest – albeit against supercharged competition.
I do think Purdue will be hard pressed to keep ND at their current 3.4 yard per carry clip, and behind CJ Carr the Irish are completing better eight yards per pass attempt.
This all comes down to game script: if Purdue is able to get on the board – ideally first – there is a path to them staying within striking range. With that many points to work with, this is worth a flier.
Auburn (+7) vs Oklahoma
Why not wrap this up with one of the most anticipated games of the college football weekend? It’s a big one with 22nd- ranked Auburn in Norman to take on the 11th-ranked Oklahoma Sooners.
Oklahoma has won both previous matchups, including last season’s 27-21 victory. But some of the key pieces have changed, particularly at the QB position.
Sooner fans will be familiar with Auburn pivot Jackson Arnold, as he was quarterbacking Oklahoma last season, and would love nothing more than to shut down the hostile crowd. He certainly has the tools and the team to do it.
This year, Arnold has thrown for 501 yards and four TDs, while running for 192 and four scores as well. Arnold will be tested as the OU defense is currently the best in the SEC allowing just 5.33 points per game. They also have a statement win under the belts after a dominating effort over Michigan.
Expect the Tigers to keep pounding the rock: they’re 18th in the country, rolling up 242 rush yards per game. We’ll see if the Sooners’ 35th-ranked run D can handle the level up.
Offensively, the Sooners are led by new QB John Mateer, who has thrown for 944 yards and five majors. He’s also rush for 161 yards and four scores. Oklahoma ranks Top 20 in passing.
If there’s a team that can knock him off his spot, it might be Auburn, who are currently second in the SEC in sacks with 11. We’ll see if the Sooners’ offensive line can hold up to that.
In the end, this one should be a close game, but Arnold with that extra, piano-sized chip on his shoulder could lead his team to an outright win, though all we’re looking for is the cover.