So, you think it’s too early for College Football Playoff Bracketology?
Go look at our initial bracket heading into Week 1 from last year. We had half the playoff teams right, and Alabama and Ole Miss fans would tell you those teams should have been in, too.
This is the second year of the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket, and we have moved to the straight seeding model. That means there are five automatic berths but the top four conference champions no longer are guaranteed first-round byes. We still have a scramble for seven at-large berths.
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There will be early movement after Week 1, too given there are three top-10 showdowns and all six teams are in our current playoff field. No. 1 Texas is at No. 3 Ohio State. No. 9 LSU is at No. 4 Clemson, and No. 6 Notre Dame takes on No. 10 Miami. That means huge implications for the ACC, Big Ten and SEC playoff outlooks. No. 22 Iowa State already threw a wrench into the Big 12 outlook with a 24-21 win against No. 17 Kansas State on Saturday.
We used our baseline from our 1-136 rankings for a baseline to determine our initial College Football Playoff picture, which we will update every week of the season.
Here is a look at the top four teams, the projected first-round matchups and the four teams on the college football playoff bubble heading into Week 1.
MORE: Ranking all 136 teams as we head into opening weekend
Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes
No. 1 Texas (SEC champion)
How confident are we in this projection? We still picked Ohio State to win this week, which would spoil Arch Manning’s long-awaited debut as the Longhorn’s full-time starter. Texas, however, is ranked No. 1, and a victory against the Buckeyes would give them the largest non-conference chip in the strength-of-schedule argument, one that would hold up in November. We see Texas and Ohio State as interchangeable, and a rematch is entirely possible in the CFP championship game. Steve Sarkisian would be feeling much more pressure in that event.
MORE: Why Arch Manning is poised to be the sport's biggest star
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes are the defending national champions and might be stronger in some ways despite losing 14 players to the 2025 NFL Draft. Why? Junior safety Caleb Downs and sophomore receiver Jeremiah Smith could be No. 1 picks in the next two drafts. That high standard will not change with coach Ryan Day. New quarterback Julian Sayin will be on the spot against Texas. Ohio State has not lost a season opener since 1999. The Buckeyes, however, could easily lose that game and still win the Big Ten.
MORE: Viewer's guide for a loaded Week 1
No. 3 Penn State (Big Ten at-large)
The Nittany Lions reached the CFP semifinals last year under James Franklin and are ranked ahead of the Buckeyes in the AP poll. Those teams easily could play twice this season, and Penn State has to go to Ohio Stadium on Nov. 1. That game is circled for both teams. Penn State also does not have the benefit of a strong non-conference schedule with Nevada, FIU and Villanova.
No. 4 Georgia (SEC at-large)
We think the SEC could easily get two first-round byes, and the Bulldogs did sweep the Longhorns in two meetings last season. Will the defense be elite again? In 2024, Georgia allowed more than 20 points per game for the first time since 2016. Keep an eye on that against Marshall in Week 1. UMass scored 21, and Kent State had 22 points the previous season. Will Kirby Smart find a way to use that as motivation? You know he will.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups
A look at Sporting News projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into Week 1 of the college football season:
No. 12 Tulane (American champion) at No. 5 Notre Dame (at-large)
Boise State's loss to South Florida on Thursday is the first shakeup in the CFP picture. Tulane and Navy are the favorites in the American Conference, but we'll give the slight edge to the Green Wave heading into Jon Sumrall's second season. Notre Dame – led by new quarterback C.J. Carr – would be hosting a home game for the second straight season, and that would create a stir among the SEC and Big Ten hopefuls that would be missing out on the CFP.
No. 11 Arizona State (Big 12 champion) vs. No. 6 Clemson (ACC champion)
If it comes to this, then there would be some pushback from the ACC and the Big 12 about where the conference champions fall, but the Tigers have to prove it in non-conference play against LSU and South Carolina. Arizona State could be in the middle of another tie-breaker mess in the parity-filled Big 12. Would it surprise anybody if one (or both) of these teams arrived at this game with more than two losses but still won their conference championship?
No. 10 Miami (ACC at-large) vs. No. 7 Alabama (SEC at-large)
The Canes squeeze in under Mario Cristobal, and that gives the ACC two playoff teams for the second straight season. It also gives Carson Beck one more shot at Alabama. The Crimson Tide might need this playoff berth more under second-year coach Kalen DeBoer. We will be able to gauge that when Alabama plays at Florida State in Week 1.
MORE: Carson Beck discusses Georgia transfer, fit at Miami
No. 9 LSU (SEC at-large) vs. No. 8 Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
This is the perfect 8/9 game. Brian Kelly gets the Tigers in the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2019, and that means Garrett Nussmeier plays at Heisman Trophy-caliber level. The Ducks are the defending Big Ten champions and are being underestimated a touch heading into the season with new quarterback Dante Moore. Would the Tigers be able to handle a trip to Autzen Stadium? Dan Lanning is 35-6 at Oregon. Kelly is 29-11 at LSU, but that gap isn’t as large as it seems.
Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams
Illinois
The Illini are probably tired of hearing about being “this year’s Indiana,” but they are the first team out in this projection. That would mean the Big Ten only gets three CFP teams. Bret Bielema returns an experienced team led by three-year starter Luke Altmyer, and the schedule is favorable starting with Western Illinois on Friday.
Florida
The Gators will have a strong strength of schedule argument down the line if it comes to it, because there are not many schedule breaks after this week’s matchup against Long Island University or a Week 2 matchup against South Florida. The next four matchups are against ranked opponents.
South Carolina
The Gamecocks are one of the hype teams of the offseason, and that’s because LaNorris Sellers is talented enough to win the Heisman Trophy. The opener against Virginia Tech should be fun, too. Can you trust South Carolina? The Gamecocks are 15-17 in SEC play over the last four seasons.
MORE: Breaking down the Heisman Trophy odds
Michigan
Five-star freshman Bryce Underwood will be the focus for the Wolverines in Week 1 against New Mexico, but keep an eye on a veteran defense under second-year coordinator Wink Martindale. Last season, The Wolverines ranked 19th in the FBS in scoring defense (19.9 ppg.), and that was with a lousy passing game that gave away good field position. How does Underwood change the equation?
BENDER: Why didn't the NCAA drop the hammer on Michigan?
Ole Miss
Ole Miss has a 44-18 record since 2020 – the best record for a Power 4 program that has yet to make the CFP. Is this the year for Lane Kiffin? The Rebels have a new quarterback in Austin Simmons, and we likely won’t learn too much in Week 1 against Georgia State. Now, about that Week 2 trip to Kentucky …