We analyze three matchups on Saturday for our college football picks. Place these ATS wagers with several NCAAF sportsbook bonuses on Caesars, BetMGM and DraftKings.
| College Football Picks | Odds |
| Oregon -35 | -110 on Caesars |
| Utah -3 | -110 on BetMGM |
| Vanderbilt -27.5 | -105 on DraftKings |
Back Oregon to Cover Large Spread
Admittedly, we liked the Oregon Ducks to cover a huge spread last week as well. It started great, with them getting out to a 34-0 lead (number was -27.5), but some late, garbage-time scores coupled with some mistakes on Oregon’s side of things ended up killing the cover. That said, Oregon is a great bet to cover a huge number once again this week.
One number that has been taking the nation by storm to look at matchups is looking at the Havoc a team creates, which is a team’s total tackles for loss (TFL), passes defended and forced fumbles, divided by total plays.
This is important, as this game features one of the biggest mismatches in terms of Havoc. The Oregon defense is fourth in Havoc, while the Oregon State offense is 108th in Havoc allowed. Oregon State has allowed a whopping 19 TFLs, while the Oregon State QB has already thrown five interceptions.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Oregon offense has done a good job not turning the ball over and staying on schedule on offense. They have allowed the sixth-fewest TFLs, and their offense is predicated on the quick passing game with Oregon QB Dante Moore getting the ball in the hands of his WRs Malik Benson and Dakorien Moore, allowing them to make plays with the ball in their hands.
Combine that with an Oregon State defense that is 94th in Havoc, and this has the makings of a game that is going to get ugly, and quick.
Trust the Utes at Home
Utah has consistently fielded a ferocious defense under head coach Kyle Wittingham. The issues that the Utah team has had has been on offense, with QB Cam Rising dealing with injuries the past couple seasons.
So, they were never able to get much going on offense, but that issue seems to be solved with New Mexico transfer QB Devon Dampier, combined with the New Mexico OC coming over as well in Jason Beck. With those two at the helm, Utah has scored 31 or more points in all three games this season.
While the Texas Tech offense has been fantastic to start the year, averaging an astonishing 66 points per game, this is a major step up in competition. Utah has held opponents to only 8.3 points per game to start the year, and those opposing offenses are averaging under 250 yards per game as well.
Granted, the Texas Tech offense is going to be a step up in competition for the Utah defense as well, we have multiple years of evidence that this Utah defense is an elite unit.
The style of play from Utah should benefit them in this game, as they like to lean on the run and control the time of possession. They have averaged over 300 rushing yards per game, and they should be able to bleed the clock and keep the Texas Tech offense off the field. Texas Tech has also played all three games at home to start the year, and Utah has been a tough place for teams to play due to the elevation in Salt Lake. Utah covers the field goal here.
Vanderbilt Wins Big Against Georgia State
For our third and final college football betting play, we are backing another favorite to cover, and another large spread, this time in Vanderbilt against Georgia State. While we do not want to make too big of a deal out of a three-game sample size, it appears as though the sportsbooks are not quite caught up on Vanderbilt in the year 2025 yet.
For reference, Vanderbilt is 3-0 against the spread and has covered the spread by an absurd 19 points per game. So, not only are they covering, but they are covering by a wide margin. Quarterback Diego Pavia has been fantastic, especially in the victory against South Carolina as an outright underdog last week. Funny enough, these two teams played last year, a game in which Georgia State won as the underdog, but these two teams could not be in different places to start the year.
Vanderbilt is on a roll, as previously mentioned, while Georgia State is 0-3 against the spread and similarly has not been close to covering the spread in any of their matchups. Last week, they were 32-point favorites against one of the worst teams in all of college football in Murray State, and won that game by 16 points, a game in which was closer than that final score indicated.
They should have the huge advantage against the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, which is a death sentence in football.