It’s Week 6 of the College Football season, and our set of best bets Saturday centers around the 16th-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores, trying to stay undefeated as they visit the 10th-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide.
Check out my free upset picks below.
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College Football Best Bets for Week 6
Vanderbilt (+10.5) over Alabama
If nothing else, the Commodores will walk into Tuscaloosa with some swagger, with a win over the No. 1-ranked Crimson Tide in their back pocket from last year, and a chance to move to 6-0 this year.
Vandy has been a scoring machine, putting up 49 points per game in their five wins, including last week’s 55-35 thrashing of Utah State.
Their run game has been lethal, ripping off 223.4 yards per game on the ground, second only to Missouri in the SEC, and Alabama might be susceptible, as they’re 14th in run defense, allowing 160.5 yards per contest.
Since dropping their season opener to Florida State, the Tide have rolled to three straight wins, including a massive 24-21 road win over 5th-ranked Georgia, vaulting ‘Bama into the Top 10.
Alabama is winging it all over the field, averaging 321.8 passing yards per contest, which sits third in the conference.
Not sure that getting into a shootout is what you want against the Commodores, but it might be the Tide’s best option.
There’s not much keep-away they can manage when averaging just 3.9 yards a pop on the ground, and just 122 yards per game on the year, which sits in the bottom third of the conference.
This will be just the third time all season the Commodores will be an underdog, and it will be, by far, the largest point spread they will have faced as ‘dogs, which currently sits at (+10.5).
This team has shown it can hang against top competition, as they knocked off then No. 11 South Carolina by 24 points on Sept 13.
Throw in the emotional letdown following a gruelling road win over Georgia, and Alabama’s idea of revenge might actually be just to try and hang on for a W.
Iowa State vs Cincinnati Under 55.5 points
If there’s a team that can slam the brakes on the uptempo Cincinnati Bearcats, it’s got to be the Iowa State Cyclones.
Since dropping its season opener to Nebraska, Cincy has won three straight, most recently a 37-34 shootout victory on the road against the Kansas Jayhawks.
They’ve scored at least 34 points in each of their three wins, and they make every red zone trip count, with a 100% success rate inside the 20.
The Bearcats have converted 17 trips into 14 touchdowns and three field goals. They’ll be facing a team that’s allowed five total touchdowns over the last three games.
On the other side of the field, while the Bearcats do boast a Top-5 run defense, their secondary can get exploited: Cincinnati has allowed nearly 250 yards passing per game and has surrendered seven passing touchdowns on the season.
The 12th-ranked Cyclones are a perfect 5-0 to start the year, and they’re powered by an elite defense that has allowed 16 points or less in four straight games.
On offense, quarterback Rocco Becht is keeping ISU balanced. They’re seventh in passing yards at 235.2 yards per contest, while the run game is piling up 151 yards per game.
If they can establish the ground game, that would be the best way to keep the Bearcats’ offensive track meet off the field, and keep this one lower-scoring.
These teams have stayed Under the total in both 2024 and 2023, and while it will be close, I think it happens for a third straight year.
Kentucky (+20.5) over Georgia
After their 33-game home winning streak went up in smoke last week, the Georgia Bulldogs look to start a new one as they host the Kentucky Wildcats.
This is an optimal spot for the Bulldogs to avoid back-to-back losses, as they’ve beaten the Wildcats in 15 straight meetings.
However, the 20.5-point spread might be a little bit tougher for the home team to cover.
In fact, the Bulldogs have yet to cover a game this season, going 0-3-1 against the spread in the first four games, failing to cover as massive favorites over Marshall (-38.5) and Austin Peay (-45.5).
The concern with the Wildcats is freshman pivot Cutter Boley, who has gone 1-1 since replacing the injured Zach Calzada, and hasn’t looked great.
He’s thrown for 364 yards and two scores with two interceptions.
Kentucky does bring a formidable running attack, averaging 188 yards per game.
That’s a big reason why the Wildcats have just one 20+ point blowout loss on their resume this season, which happened to be their last game, a 35-13 loss to South Carolina.
They’ve even hung with Ole Miss in a 30-23 loss, a team that’s now all the way to fourth in the rankings.
If UK can move the ball on the ground with scoring success, they can stay within striking distance, and they’re familiar with Georgia on that front: the Wildcats are 5-1-0 ATS vs Georgia in the last six head-to-heads.
There’s no doubt Georgia wins, but those are a lot of points to cover after a gruelling loss to Alabama last week.