Saturday’s Week 5 college football slate is loaded with star-studded matchups. Everyone is talking about Oregon vs Penn State, Alabama vs Georgia, and LSU vs Ole Miss, but those games aren’t necessarily the best betting targets.
BYU vs Colorado and Hawaii vs Air Force, on the other hand, present a ton of value in my opinion. I’m targeting the favorite in both matchups against the spread, as I don’t expect much resistance from either the Buffaloes or Rainbow Warriors. Make these college football best bets on Saturday with offers on BetMGM and DraftKings.
Back BYU vs Colorado
Let’s start with the Cougars -6.5 in Colorado. BYU is off to a perfect 3-0 start, fueled by a dominant rushing attack and a top-three scoring defense.
LJ Martin has been a workhorse offensively, terrorizing enemy defenders. He’s averaging 8.6 yards per carry and has busted off at least one 40+ rush in every contest.
The Cougars run the ball at a 58% clip and rank in the top 30 in rushing success rate. That spells trouble for Colorado, who own a brutal run defense. The Colorado Buffaloes rank outside the top 100 in opponent rushing yards and attempts. They’ve faced two legitimate offenses thus far (Georgia Tech and Houston), and the results have not been pretty.
Colorado lost both those contests by 7+ points, yielding 529 rushing yards along the way. The Cougars would prefer to pummel the Buffaloes on the ground, but they’re set up for success through the air as well. Prime Time’s crew grades out 126th in coverage and is 103rd in opponent expected points added per pass.
On the other side of the ball, Colorado is once again rolling with dual-threat QB Kaidon Salter after playing musical chairs with its quarterbacks the previous three weeks. Salter is far more dangerous as a runner, but production will be tough to come by on the ground and through the air versus BYU.
The Cougars boast the nation’s third-best scoring defense, yielding only 8 points per game. They’re surrendering only 2.3 yards per carry to opposing rushers and have held enemy QBs to a 56% completion percentage. To make matters worse for the Buffaloes, BYU is top-22 in pass rush win rate and ranks fourth in takeaways per game.
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Air Force Runs All Over Hawaii
Few teams in college football have more severe home/road splits than Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors are 2-16 away from the Island under Timmy Chang after getting waxed by Arizona a few weeks ago.
Now they set off to play Air Force at Altitude. I don’t think they’re ready to deal with what the Falcons have to offer.Air Force is about as unique a challenge as there is. They wear opponents down with their outside zone running and fullback dives, dominating the line of scrimmage and time of possession.
Only two NCAAF teams hold the football longer on average than the Falcons, while Air Force is fifth in rush rate at 71.6%. They’re averaging 267.5 rushing yards per game and 33.5 points.
That’s problematic for Hawaii, which doesn’t force turnovers and is weak in the trenches. The Rainbow Warriors are 72nd in stuff rate and coughed up 5.5 yards per run versus Arizona, the best rushing offense they’ve seen.
Defensively, the Falcons have underwhelmed thus far, but the Hawaii offense is far less intimidating than it once was. Starting QB Micah Alejado has thrown more interceptions (3) than touchdowns (2) this season, and has failed to eclipse 219 passing yards in any of his three starts
The Rainbow Warriors rank outside the top-100 in both yards per pass and yards per rush, and are only converting 34% of their third downs.
Their inability to sustain drives will ultimately be their downfall. That’s going to keep their defense on the field, and tired defenders simply cannot hold up over four quarters against this relentless Air Force rushing attack. Lay the -6.5 with the Falcons.
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