Final Four predictions for March Madness: Teams with the best odds to reach New Orleans in 2022

Whether you are filling out a bracket or placing futures bets, nailing the Final Four is crucial. For bracket pools, it is worth more points than all but picking the championship game, and the presence of sleepers every year means that it can be the chance to gain ground on the rest of the competition.

But while college basketball fans can get a few Final Four teams wrong and still win the pool, bettors won't have that luxury. Placing futures on the right sleeper or the undervalued heavyweight either have a nice payout, or are gone.

While it's easy to believe that picking all the four No. 1 seeds will pay off, it rarely ever shakes out that way as March Madness often takes a few teams down earlier than expected. Of the teams that have reached the Final Four throughout history, only 40.9 percent were No. 1 seeds. That means that at least one and likely two will reach, but don't expect much more beyond that.

EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Kentucky) | Fagan (Gonzaga) | Pohnl (Arizona)

What does that mean for betting? Well, betting on a No. 1 seed in a bracket pool is better than in a futures. With the futures, it won't be great value, and there's a chance it won't be the right No. 1 seed anyway. Instead, it is best to look deeper down the line to see which team might have that run to the Final Four and flip brackets and net bigger paydays.

Who could those bets be this year? Sporting News breaks down a few teams in each region that could be that undervalued bet in 2022.

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Final Four predictions for March Madness

East Region odds, best bets

This is the only region where picking the No. 1 seed to reach the Final Four is not picking the favorite. Baylor sits at +250 compared to +150 for Kentucky to make it to the national semifinal. The Purdue offense has cooled off from a torrential stretch in the middle of the season, but if it gets going, the Boilermakers could potentially provide good value at +300. The Hokies are coming into the tournament on a hot streak after winning the ACC Tournament and could be in a strong position to keep the momentum going. At +1599 odds, Virginia Tech feels like one of the best sleepers in the region. And if any team in the tournament can pull off what UCLA did last year and go from the First Four to the Final Four, it might be Indiana (+3399).

MORE: Print your 2022 March Madness bracket here

Midwest Region odds, best bets

While Kansas is the favorite to win the region, the rest of the seeding feels out of order. Fifth-seeded Iowa has the third-best odds to win the region, while eighth-seeded San Diego State is tied with fourth-seeded Providence at +1396. The Aztecs have one of the best defenses in the country, and could be primed for a second-round upset against the Jayhawks. South Dakota State scored more points than any team in the nation during the 2021-22 season, and at +6480, the Jackrabbits might be this year's Cinderella. Though +224 isn't tremendous value, Auburn has proven this season that it can be among the best teams in the nation if it goes on a run.

REGION BREAKDOWNS:
West | South | Midwest | East

South Region odds, best bets

Arizona might not be a favorite against the field to reach the Final Four, but it is very close. Only Gonzaga has better odds to reach the semifinal than the Wildcats. While at +140 Arizona isn't a bad bet, there are some other better values to be had further down. No. 11 Michigan will have its head coach Juwan Howard back at the helm after a suspension to end the regular season, and its experience and scoring ability make it a decent pick at +1603 to make a run. Illinois underperformed after a standout campaign in 2020-21, but with a star like Kofi Cockburn, the Fighting Illini could be poised to provide great value on a +801 futures bet.

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

West Region odds, best bets

Gonzaga (-200) is such a heavy favorite to reach the Final Four that it is tough to see them as good value for bettors looking to place some futures down. Duke has the star talent and the coach to provide decent value at +377, and UConn (+1608) has established itself as a team that can hang with the toughest opponents after collecting regular-season wins against Auburn, Villanova and Marquette. If Memphis can reach the Round of 32 and pull off the upset over Gonzaga, the Tigers (+2412) could be a team to watch out for with a rising star in Jalen Duren.