March Madness Predictions 2023: 5 safe first-round NCAA Tournament picks against the spread

The field of 68 is officially set for the 2023 NCAA Tournament, which is to begin on Tuesday evening with the First Four in Dayton. After the First Four wraps-up on Tuesday and Wednesday, the first round will tip off on Thursday at noon ET. Bettors will be looking to cash in on some bets to begin the madness and hopefully build their bankrolls.

This year, we have 10 games with double-digit spreads in the first round, which is the same amount we had in last year's first round. Below, we'll look at five games in the first round where we think it's safe to take the spread, no matter if the team is a favorite or an underdog. It's never easy predicting who will cover the spread in the NCAA tournament, as anything can happen in a win-or-go-home situation.

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Safe March Madness picks against the spread 

Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction

No. 5 San Diego State (-5) vs. No. 12 College of Charleston

Thursday, 3:10 p.m. ET

Depending on the sportsbook, the spread for this 5-12 matchup is set at either 5.5 or five points. The College of Charleston enters the tournament fresh off a CAA championship and a 31-3 record. The Cougars are one of the hottest teams in the country, winning 10 straight games, which might scare some bettors away from taking them against the spread. However, Charleston has an outstanding offense (scoring 80.8 points per game) and rebounds the ball efficiently (40.5 rebounds per game -- 14th in NCAA). Based on those stats, along with them being 20-12 ATS overall, 3-0 ATS as an underdog, and 9-3 ATS against non-conference teams this season, it makes a compelling case to take the Cougars' spread. The Aztecs might win, but it could be a close game as both teams are solid defensively.

Pick: College of Charleston covers (+5)

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No. 8 Auburn (-1) vs. No. 9 seed Iowa

Thursday, 6:50 p.m. ET

Auburn-Iowa is another game where we believe the underdog can cover the spread. The Hawkeyes haven't been great against the spread as an underdog this season (3-5) and are 0-4 ATS on a neutral floor. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 12-13 ATS as a favorite this season, which does not inspire a ton of confidence in them either. We think the Hawkeyes are the better team despite how the trends go against them. Kris Murray can score at all three levels, and they are more balanced offensively than Auburn, who has lost multiple close games this season.

Pick: Iowa covers (+1) 

No. 7 Texas A&M (-3) vs. No. 10 Penn State

Thursday, 6:50 p.m. ET

The Aggies are only three-point favorites in their first-round matchup against the Nittany Lions, which makes a ton of sense. Texas A&M has been outstanding against the spread as a favorite, with a 19-7 record this season (best cover rate in the SEC) and 8-5 ATS in non-conference games. However, the Aggies are facing a Penn State team that played well in the Big Ten and are also good against the spread. The Nittany Lions are 6-4-1 ATS in non-conference games, 11-5 ATS as underdogs, and 7-1 ATS at a neutral site. Did we mention they have a great player in Jalen Pickett, who is averaging 17.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game? If Pickett brings his A-game and the rest of the Nittany Lions follow, Penn State could give Texas A&M a run for their money on Thursday night.

Pick: Penn State covers (+3)

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
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No. 7 Michigan State (-2) vs. No. 10 USC

Friday, 12:15 p.m. ET

After picking a few underdogs to cover the spread on Thursday, we will take the Spartans to coverand win outright against USC on Friday. The Spartans are only 10-9 against the spread as a favorite this year but an impressive 16-3 straight up on the moneyline. Michigan State also has one of the best coaches on the sideline (Tom Izzo), who is 14-9 ATS in the first round of the NCAA tournament with the Spartans. It won't be easy for Michigan State, as USC has two great guards (Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson). However, the Spartans are one of the best three-point shooting teams (39.5 percent) this season, which will help them advance to the second round.

Pick: Michigan State covers (-2)

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No. 3 Xavier (-12.5) vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State

Friday, 12:40 p.m ET 

The Musketeers should win this game on Friday after losing the Big East title to Marquette. However, do not sleep on the Owls, who had an impressive season where they defeated Liberty twice, including in the ASUN title game for the auto bid. Kennesaw State held its own in non-conference play, which included Indiana, Florida, VCU, and San Diego State, going 7-3 ATS. The Owls are 3-1 against the spread when listed as an underdog of 10 points or more and 9-4 ATS as an underdog this season. They were also one of the best teams in the NCAA against the spread (20-10-1). Again, Xavier should win, but Kennesaw State will battle until the end.

Pick: Kennesaw State covers (+12.5)

2023 NCAA Tournament: ATS records for the field of 68