The Yankees are 2.5-games back in the American League East, while the Astros have a three-game lead in the AL West. They are set to play the second game of this mid-week series on Wednesday night. This Yankees-Astros betting preview takes a deeper look at odds, player props and sportsbook bonuses. First pitch is set for 8:10 pm ET.
- The New York Yankees, fresh off a 7-1 victory, look to continue their road dominance against a Houston Astros team trying to bounce back at home.
- A pitching matchup featuring starters with ERAs above 4.30, combined with the Yankees' recent offensive surge, puts the game total of 9.0 runs squarely in focus.
- This article delves into the odds, batter vs. pitcher matchups, player props, and provides a data-driven prediction for Wednesday's American League clash.
The Astros will look to even the series at home after a lopsided loss, sending Jason Alexander to the mound to face the visiting Yankees and their starter, Will Warren. Alexander, who sports a 4-1 record despite a 4.61 ERA, will need to navigate a potent Yankees lineup that exploded for seven runs in the series opener. The Yankees counter with Warren, who enters the contest with an 8-6 record and a 4.30 ERA, aiming to build on the team's recent momentum.
New York has been one of the hottest teams in baseball, riding a wave of stellar offensive production and solid starting pitching. The Yankees showcased their power in the previous game, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. blasting two home runs to lead the charge. For Houston, the challenge will be to reignite an offense that was held to just one run and to provide run support for a pitching staff that has been taxed.
This matchup features two MLB teams with playoff aspirations heading in different directions in the short term, setting the stage for a critical contest. We'll break down the betting odds, key player props, and offer our best prediction for the game.
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees Betting Odds
| Bet Type | Yankees Odds | Astros Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+123) | +1.5 (-150) |
| Moneyline | -131 | +108 |
| Total Runs | Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110) |
Odds as of September 3, 2025 from DraftKings.
The odds favor the visiting Yankees, reflecting their strong recent form and decisive win in the series opener. The moneyline implies the Yankees have a strong chance to win, while the Astros are positioned as slight home underdogs. The run line offers plus-money value on New York to win by two or more runs, a feat they accomplished easily in the last game.
The total is set at a flat 9.0 runs, with standard juice on both sides, suggesting an expectation of a fair amount of offense from two capable lineups facing pitchers with mid-rotation ERAs.
Odds Movement & Analysis
The betting market has shown clear movement in favor of the Yankees and the over. The moneyline opened with the Yankees at -126 and has since shifted to -131, indicating that the majority of early money is backing the road favorites. This aligns with public betting splits, which show over 67% of moneyline tickets on New York.
Conversely, the total has seen the most significant adjustment. After opening at 9.0 with the under favored at -121, the line has settled at an even -110 on both sides. This shift was driven by overwhelming public action on the Over, which has attracted a staggering 95% of the total bets. This heavy lean is likely a reaction to the Yankees' 7-run outburst in the previous game and the starting pitchers' ERAs, both of which are north of 4.30.
While the public is heavily on the Yankees, betting split data indicates that sharp money may be finding value on the Astros. The percentage of total money wagered on Houston's moneyline and run line is significantly higher than the percentage of total bets, a classic sign of professional action backing the underdog. This creates a fascinating "public vs. sharps" dynamic on the side, while the market is in near-unanimous agreement that runs will be scored.
Astros vs. Yankees – Player Props
We look at different factors to consider when making MLB props, like how the Yankees have done against Alexander in the past. Use the DraftKings promo code offer to win a $300 bonus for your bets.
Yankees Career Statistics vs. Alexander
The Yankees have very limited history against Alexander, and the results are telling. While they've only managed one hit in 14 official at-bats, their plate discipline stands out, having drawn six walks. This high walk rate could spell trouble for Alexander against a patient and powerful Yankees lineup.
Astros Batters vs. Will Warren
The Astros have no active players with a career plate appearance against Yankees starter Will Warren. This lack of familiarity presents a challenge for both sides. Warren will have to navigate a veteran-heavy lineup without the benefit of past experience, while Astros hitters will need to make in-game adjustments to his pitch arsenal. Warren, a right-hander, will face a mix of potent righties like Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, along with the formidable left-handed power of Yordan Alvarez.
Batter Props
| Player | Hits | Total Bases | Home Runs | RBIs | Runs Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 (O -260 | U +190) | 1.5 (O -110 | U -125) | 0.5 (+230) | 0.5 (O +125 | U -175) | 0.5 (O -150 | U +105) |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 (O -225 | U +165) | 1.5 (O +110 | U -150) | 0.5 (+330) | 0.5 (O +150 | U -215) | 0.5 (O -115 | U -125) |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 (O -245 | U +180) | 1.5 (O +120 | U -160) | 0.5 (+500) | 0.5 (O +170 | U -245) | 0.5 (O +125 | U -175) |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 (O -265 | U +195) | 1.5 (O +105 | U -140) | 0.5 (+370) | 0.5 (O +130 | U -185) | 0.5 (O -105 | U -135) |
| Carlos Correa (HOU) | 0.5 (O -210 | U +150) | 1.5 (O +140 | U -195) | 0.5 (+600) | 0.5 (O +175 | U -250) | 0.5 (O +125 | U -180) |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 (O -195 | U +140) | 1.5 (O +120 | U -160) | 0.5 (+300) | 0.5 (O +140 | U -200) | 0.5 (O +105 | U -145) |
Pitcher Props
| Pitcher | Strikeouts | Earned Runs | Walks Allowed | Hits Allows | Innings Pitched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Warren (NYY) | 4.5 (O -155 | U +120) | 2.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 1.5 (O -165 | U +120) | 5.5 (O +115 | U -155) | 15.5 Outs (O +120 | U -160) |
| Jason Alexander (HOU) | 4.5 (O +100 | U -130) | 3.5 (O +115 | U -155) | 1.5 (O -145 | U +110) | 5.5 (O +110 | U -150) | 15.5 Outs (O +105 | U -140) |
For the pitcher props, Warren's strikeout line is set at 4.5, with heavy juice on the over. Facing an Astros team that can make contact, this number could be tight, but the Yankees will be counting on him to miss bats.
Alexander's strikeout prop is also 4.5 but with plus-money on the over, suggesting oddsmakers are less confident in his ability to rack up strikeouts against a disciplined Yankees lineup. His earned runs line of 3.5 at plus-money on the over is particularly noteworthy, given New York's offensive firepower. Claim the bet365 bonus code for a $300 MLB bonus and find boosts for some of these props.
Astros vs. Yankees Final Prediction
This matchup presents a compelling clash of momentum versus home-field advantage. The Yankees are firing on all cylinders, while the Astros are trying to find their footing. The starting pitching matchup feels like a potential powder keg for offense.
Warren's 4.30 ERA and Alexander's 4.61 ERA are unlikely to inspire confidence against these lineups. Alexander's limited history against the Yankees, where he issued six walks in a small sample size, is a major red flag against a team that excels at working counts and capitalizing on free passes.
Several MLB betting trends strongly support the Yankees and a high-scoring game. The Yankees are an impressive 10-1 in their last 11 road games and 8-2 in their last 10 games overall. Furthermore, the Over has hit in nine of the Yankees' last 12 games following a win, pointing towards their tendency to string together strong offensive performances. While the Astros have been a formidable home underdog, going 6-1 in their last seven such games, their recent form is concerning, having lost four straight against teams with winning records.
Given the Yankees' offensive surge, the pitching matchup, and the strong trends, the best bets lie with New York's bats. The Yankees moneyline is a solid play, but the Over 9.0 runs feels even more compelling. Both offenses are capable of putting up crooked numbers, and neither starting pitcher has demonstrated the ability to consistently shut down top-tier opponents this season.
Picks:
- New York Yankees Moneyline (-131)
- Over 9.0 Runs (-110)
- Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Public Betting Splits
| Bet Type | Home Team (Astros) | Away Team (Yankees) | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 33% of bets (50% of handle) | 67% of bets (50% of handle) | - | - |
| Run Line | 27% of bets (40% of handle) | 73% of bets (60% of handle) | - | - |
| Total Runs | - | - | 95% of bets (93% of handle) | 5% of bets (7% of handle) |
The public betting splits reveal a classic "public vs. sharps" divide on the game's outcome. The public is heavily backing the Yankees on both the moneyline (67% of bets) and run line (73%). However, the handle (total money wagered) is nearly split 50/50 on the moneyline, and the Astros are getting a significantly higher percentage of the handle on the run line compared to their bet count.
This suggests that larger, potentially sharper, wagers are on the Astros as a home underdog. In stark contrast, there is overwhelming consensus on the total, with 95% of all bets and 93% of the money backing the Over.