Read this Yankees-Astros betting preview before making your picks on Tuesday night. View pitching props, hitting props and sportsbook bonuses for the AL matchup. First pitch is set for 8:10 pm ET in Houston.
- A pair of aces, Max Fried and Framber Valdez, are set to duel in Houston as two American League powerhouses with nearly identical records clash.
- The visiting New York Yankees are slight moneyline favorites, but the Houston Astros have been dominant at home against winning teams this season.
- Public betting is heavily skewed towards the Yankees and the Over, creating potential value on the home underdog and the Under.
Two of the AL's premier teams open a pivotal series in Houston, as the Yankees send their ace Max Fried to the mound to face off against the Astros and their groundball specialist, Framber Valdez. Fried enters the contest with a stellar 14-5 record and a 3.06 ERA, looking to set the tone for a Yankees squad that has been dominant on the road recently.
The Astros will counter with Valdez, who boasts an impressive 12-7 record and a 3.18 ERA. He'll look to leverage his home-field advantage at Daikin Park, where Houston has been particularly tough on winning ballclubs. With both MLB teams sporting 76 wins and jockeying for playoff positioning, this matchup has all the makings of a postseason preview.
This article will break down MLB betting odds, dive into key player props, and provide a comprehensive Yankees-Astros betting prediction.
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees Betting Odds
| Bet Type | Yankees Odds | Astros Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+144) | +1.5 (-176) |
| Moneyline | -120 | -102 |
| Total Runs | Over 8 (-103) | Under 8 (-118) |
Odds as of September 2, 2025 from DraftKings.
The odds reflect a tightly contested matchup, with the Yankees installed as slight road favorites. The -120 moneyline price for the Yankees suggests oddsmakers are giving significant weight to the presence of Fried on the mound.
The total of eight runs is a nod to the two high-caliber starting pitchers, though the powerful Yankees lineup, which has been trending over, keeps the number from dipping lower.
Odds Movement & Analysis
The betting market has seen notable movement since the opening lines were released. New York opened at -115 on the moneyline and have been bet up to -120, while Houston moved from -105 to -102. This slight shift toward the Yankees aligns with public betting data, which shows nearly 69% of moneyline tickets backing the visitors.
The most significant adjustment has been on the total. It opened at 7.5 runs with juice on the Over (-112) and has since climbed to a flat 8.0. This move was clearly driven by heavy public action, as over 91% of bets have come in on the Over.
This shift has created potential value on the Under, especially with two elite starting pitchers on the hill. The run line has remained stable, indicating balanced action on the spread. The movement appears to be primarily influenced by public sentiment rather than any significant injury news or weather changes.
Astros vs. Yankees Batter Props
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| Player | Hits | Total Bases | Home Runs | RBIs | Runs Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 (O -235 | U +175) | 1.5 (O +105 | U -140) | +255 | 0.5 (O +145 | U -205) | 0.5 (O -125 | U -110) |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 (O -235 | U +170) | 1.5 (O +120 | U -160) | +400 | 0.5 (O +170 | U -245) | 0.5 (O +105 | U -145) |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 (O -210 | U +155) | 1.5 (O +150 | U -205) | +650 | 0.5 (O +205 | U -300) | 0.5 (O +145 | U -210) |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 (O -160 | U +120) | 0.5 (O -172 | U +127) | +360 | 0.5 (O +160 | U -225) | 0.5 (O +120 | U -170) |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 (O -265 | U +195) | 1.5 (O +115 | U -155) | +500 | 0.5 (O +205 | U -300) | 0.5 (O -110 | U -125) |
| Carlos Correa (HOU) | 0.5 (O -200 | U +150) | 0.5 (O -222 | U +155) | +700 | 0.5 (O +190 | U -275) | 0.5 (O +140 | U -200) |
MLB batter props as of September 2, 2025 from DraftKings.
Astros vs. Yankees Pitcher Props
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| Pitcher | Strikeouts | Earned Runs | Hits Allowed | Innings Pitched (Outs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried (NYY) | 5.5 (O +120 | U -155) | 2.5 (O +120 | U -160) | 5.5 (O -105 | U -125) | 5.2 (17.5) (O -160 | U +120) |
| Framber Valdez (HOU) | 5.5 (O -140 | U +105) | 2.5 (O -110 | U -125) | 5.5 (O -105 | U -130) | 5.2 (17.5) (O -155 | U +115) |
MLB pitcher props as of September 2, 2025 from DraftKings.
The pitcher prop market offers some intriguing angles. Valdez's strikeout line is set at 5.5 with juice on the over (-140). The Yankees offense carries a high strikeout rate, making this a strong possibility. For Fried, his strikeout prop is also 5.5 but with plus-money on the over (+120), reflecting the Astros' more contact approach.
However, given the Astros' success against Fried in their limited history, his ERA prop of 2.5 with +120 on the over is compelling. Aaron Judge's total bases prop of 1.5 at +105 is also worth a look, considering his career success against Valdez and his current hot streak.
Find Picks & Prediction
This matchup is a classic clash of titans, but digging into the situational trends reveals a clear edge. While Fried gives the Yankees a fighting chance in any game, the Astros have been nearly unbeatable at home against quality opponents.
The Astros are an incredible 11-2 (.846) in their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record. Conversely, the Yankees have struggled mightily in this exact scenario, posting a dismal 3-10 (.231) record in their last 13 road games against winning clubs. Although the Yankees have been hot as road favorites (9-1 in their last 10), that success has come against lesser competition.
Valdez's groundball-heavy arsenal is perfectly suited for Daikin Park, and while some Yankees hitters have had success against him, he's a different beast at home. The Yankees' offense, while potent, is also prone to slumps and strikeouts. The Astros' bullpen has been solid, and even without Josh Hader, they have the depth to close out a game Valdez keeps close.
The total is another area with strong trends pointing in one direction. The Under has cashed in six of the Astros' last seven home games as a favorite, and they have gone under the total in their last four games following a win. With two top-tier pitchers on the mound, runs should be at a premium. The public is hammering the Over, which only increases the value on a well-pitched, low-scoring affair.
Picks:
- Houston Astros Moneyline (-102)
- Under 8 Runs (-118)
Public Betting Splits: Yankees vs Astros
The public is firmly behind the visitors in this contest. A significant 68.8% of moneyline bets are on the Yankees, which has helped push their line from -115 to -120. The sentiment is even more lopsided on the total, where a staggering 91.6% of all wagers are on the Over 8 runs.
This heavy public backing of the Yankees and the Over creates a classic contrarian opportunity, suggesting that the value lies with the Houston Astros and the Under.