Phillies vs. Brewers Odds, Picks, Predictions (Sept. 3)

After a day off for both teams, the Phillies and Brewers will run it back on Wednesday night. These division leaders have lofty expectations as we approach the postseason. Our Phillies-Brewers betting preview goes over different player props and sportsbook bonuses.

• The Milwaukee Brewers send veteran Jose Quintana to the mound to even the series against a struggling Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies.
• Despite a rough season, Aaron Nola looks to build on his team's recent offensive surge and secure a road series win.
• This article breaks down the odds, player props, and betting trends to provide a comprehensive prediction for this National League clash.

The Brewers, behind their veteran arm Jose Quintana (10-5, 3.69 ERA), look to bounce back against the visiting Phillies and their starter Aaron Nola (3-7, 6.47 ERA), who has endured a difficult season. This matchup follows a high-scoring affair where the Phillies orchestrated a late-game comeback, putting the pressure on the Brewers to hold serve at home.

Milwaukee enters this contest with a strong overall record but will need a quality start from Quintana to calm a Phillies lineup that has been firing on all cylinders. Philadelphia, meanwhile, hopes Nola can find his form and provide enough stability to let their potent offense go to work again. With both teams in the thick of the playoff hunt, this game carries significant weight as the season winds down. This preview will dive into the betting odds, analyze key player props, and deliver a data-driven prediction.

The Phillies (80-58) visit the Brewers (85-54) for this intriguing National League matchup. The game is set for September 3, 2025, at American Family Field in Milwaukee, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:40 pm ET. 

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Odds as of September 3, 2025 from MGM.

The odds present a tightly contested matchup, with the Brewers installed as slight home favorites. The moneyline suggests a near pick'em, reflecting the Phillies' recent offensive explosion against the Brewers' solid home-field advantage. The vig-free implied probabilities give the Brewers a slight edge.

The total is set at nine runs, leaning towards the under. This line is likely influenced by the 18-run slugfest in their last meeting and the Phillies' hot bats, balanced against the potential for a pitcher's duel if Quintana and Nola perform to their career standards rather than Nola's recent form.

Odds Movement & Analysis

The betting market has seen notable movement on the total, which opened at 8.5 runs and has since been bet up to 9.0. This half-run shift is significant and directly reflects the public's reaction to the high-scoring series opener and the Phillies' potent offense. Public betting splits confirm this sentiment, with a staggering 98.4% of the tickets and 99.36% of the money coming in on the Over.

The moneyline has remained relatively stable, opening around -116 for the Brewers and settling at -115. This indicates that while the public is heavily backing the home team (74.9% of bets), the line hasn't drastically shifted, suggesting books are comfortable with the current price given the Phillies' strong 4-1 record in their last five games. The primary driver of market movement has been the game total, influenced by recent offensive performances and Nola's season-long struggles, which bettors are keen to exploit.

Brewers vs. Phillies – Player Props

Use the BetMGM bonus code TSN150 to win bonus bets for these player props. There's not much history between the Phillies and Quintana, but the Brewers have seen Nola on multiple occassions.

Brewers Career Statistics vs. Aaron Nola

Last five years with eight games analyzed.

MIL vs PHI Batter Props

MLB batter props as of September 3, 2025 on BetMGM

Pitcher Props

MLB pitcher props as of September 3, 2025 on DraftKings

Looking at the props, Bryce Harper's total bases line of 1.5 at plus money (+110) is enticing. He homered in the last game and is facing a left-handed pitcher in Quintana, but Harper has demonstrated reverse splits power throughout his career. For the Brewers, Christian Yelich has struggled mightily against Nola in his career, hitting just .176 in 17 at-bats. His Under 1.5 total bases at -161 seems like a strong play given the historical data.

For the pitchers, Nola's strikeout line is set at 5.5. He has only struck out 12 Brewers in 59 career at-bats against their current lineup, an average of one strikeout every 4.9 at-bats. This suggests he may struggle to reach six punchouts, making the Under (-164) a viable, albeit heavily juiced, option. Quintana's strikeout prop of 4.5 at even money is interesting against a Phillies team that can strike out but also puts the ball in play. Try using the DraftKings promo code offer and claim an MLB profit boost.

Brewers vs. Phillies Final Prediction

The core of this handicap lies in the starting pitching matchup, which heavily favors the Brewers. Quintana has been a reliable presence in the Milwaukee rotation, posting a solid 10-5 record with a 3.69 ERA. He provides stability and consistently keeps his team in games. Conversely, Nola is in the midst of a career-worst season, sporting an unsightly 6.47 ERA and a 3-7 record. While Nola has historically dominated the current Brewers roster (.471 OPS against), his 2025 form is too alarming to trust, especially on the road against a quality opponent.

Several MLB betting trends reinforce a pro-Brewers stance. Milwaukee is an impressive 14-6 (.700) following a loss over their last 20 games and an even more dominant 9-2 (.818) at home against opponents with a winning record in their last 11 such contests. The Phillies, on the other hand, have struggled in these spots, going just 1-5 (.167) on the road against winning teams in their last six tries. The Brewers have also owned this head-to-head matchup recently, winning four of the last five games against Philadelphia.

While the Phillies' offense is red-hot, the Brewers' ability to bounce back, coupled with their significant advantage on the mound, makes them the clear choice. The trends point to a Milwaukee victory and suggest value in playing the over, as the Over has hit in six of the Brewers' last seven home games against winning teams.

Picks:

• Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-115)
• Over 9 Runs (+100)

Public Betting Splits

The public and sharp money are heavily aligned on the Brewers, with 85% of the handle backing the home team. There's an even stronger consensus on the Over, which is attracting over 99% of the money, aligning with our prediction and explaining the line move from 8.5 to 9.0.