Another massive NL matchup goes down tonight, and baseball fans can get a detailed Padres-Mets betting preview featuring the best odds, picks, player props, and predictions for wagering on the second game of this high-profile series.
- The Mets host the Padres in the second game of their series, with New York looking to build on a decisive series-opening win.
- A compelling pitching matchup features the Padres' Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.73 ERA) against the Mets' David Peterson (9-5, 3.77 ERA).
- This article breaks down the odds, analyzes key player props, and provides our best prediction for the game.
The New York Mets, behind a solid outing from starter David Peterson who boasts a 3.77 ERA, look to secure a series win against the visiting San Diego Padres and their starter Nick Pivetta. Pivetta has been a force for the Padres this season, compiling an impressive 13-5 record with a stellar 2.73 ERA, giving San Diego a significant edge on the mound, at least on paper.
This matchup follows a commanding 8-3 victory for the Mets in the series opener, where their offense erupted for four home runs. The Padres will be aiming to bounce back and even the series, but they face a Mets team that has played well at home, particularly against opponents with winning records.
Key storylines include the Mets' catcher situation, with Francisco Alvarez listed as day-to-day, and whether the Padres' offense can solve Peterson, against whom they have limited career success. This preview will dive into the betting odds, pitcher and batter props, and provide a detailed prediction for Wednesday's contest.
First-time bettors can claim the BetMGM bonus code TSN150 to unlock $150 in bonus bets or secure a $1,500 First Bet Offer.
Padres-Mets Betting Preview
The Padres (82-69) and Mets (78-73) continue their series on Wednesday night at Citi Field in Flushing, Queens. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm ET. The game features a pitching duel between San Diego's Pivetta and Peterson, as the Mets look to build on their victory in the first game of the series.
Padres vs Mets Betting Odds
| Bet Type | San Diego Padres Odds | New York Mets Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-222) | -1.5 (+180) |
| Moneyline | +105 | -125 |
| Total Runs | Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105) |
Odds as of September 17, 2025 from MGM.
The odds favor the Mets as slight home favorites, a line that reflects their recent success at Citi Field and the Padres' struggles on the road. The moneyline implies a close contest, with the vig-free probabilities giving the Mets a slight edge. The total of 7.5 runs suggests that despite the offensive potential of both lineups, oddsmakers are respecting the quality of the starting pitching matchup.
Moneyline (vig-free): New York Mets \~53.2%, San Diego Padres \~46.8%
Odds Movement & Analysis
The MLB betting market has seen significant movement since the lines opened. The New York Mets moneyline shifted from an opening of (-115) to its current (-125), indicating that respected money has come in on the home team. Conversely, the Padres have drifted from (-105) to (+105) underdogs.
This 10-cent move toward the Mets is notable, especially considering the public betting splits show an overwhelming 95% of bets on the Padres. This is a classic case of reverse line movement, where the line moves against the public money, suggesting sharp bettors are backing New York.
The total has also seen a crucial adjustment, dropping from an opening line of 8.0 runs down to 7.5. This half-run move is significant and points to the market's respect for the starting pitchers, Pivetta and Peterson.
Despite the public hammering the Over (97% of bets), the line has moved down, another indicator of professional money favoring a lower-scoring affair. The injury to Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez, who is day-to-day, could also be a factor, potentially impacting New York's offensive production. Bettors who liked the Under likely found better value at the opening number of 8.0.
Mets vs Padres Injury Reports
New York Mets
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status | Potential Impact / Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Alvarez | C | Arm | Day-to-Day | Key bat and starting catcher. His absence tests catching depth, with Luis Torrens also on the IL. |
| Tyrone Taylor | OF | Hamstring | D10 | Reduces outfield depth and removes a capable bat from the lineup. |
| Luis Torrens | C | Forearm | D10 | Second-string catcher being out puts more pressure on the position. |
| Jesse Winker | OF | Back | D60 | Out for the season; a significant loss to the lineup's power and on-base potential. |
| Frankie Montas Jr. | P | Elbow | D60 | Starting rotation depth is affected by his long-term absence. |
San Diego Padres
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status | Potential Impact / Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | IF | Foot | D10 | Major loss in the infield; his bat and defensive presence are difficult to replace. |
| Nestor Cortes | P | Elbow | D15 | Weakens the starting rotation and puts more strain on the bullpen. |
| Jason Adam | P | Quad | D15 | Key reliever's absence impacts the bullpen's late-inning options. |
| Joe Musgrove | P | Elbow | D60 | Long-term injury has significantly impacted the top of the Padres' rotation all season. |
| Jhony Brito | P | Forearm | D60 | Another arm lost for the season, thinning out the team's overall pitching depth. |
Mets vs Padres Player Props: Pitching
| Pitcher | Strikeouts | Earned Runs | Hits Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (SD) | 5.5 (O -127 | U -104) | 2.5 (O +106 | U -145) | 4.5 (O -133 | U +100) |
| David Peterson (NYM) | 4.5 (O -105 | U -120) | 2.5 (O +125 | U -182) | 5.5 (O -105 | U -133) |
For pitcher props, Pivetta's strikeout line is set at 5.5. Given his ability to miss bats and the Mets' potential to strike out, the Over (-127) looks appealing. For Peterson, the Under on his 4.5 strikeouts line at (-120) holds value, as the Padres lineup doesn't strike out at an exceptionally high rate and his career numbers against them show only two strikeouts in 29 at-bats.
In the batter props market, Manny Machado's total bases line is 1.5. Considering his poor history against Peterson (2-for-10, .573 OPS), the Under (-153) is a strong play.
For the Mets, Pete Alonso's total bases prop is also set at 1.5. Facing the tough righty Pivetta for the first time could be a challenge, making the Under (-150) a viable option despite his power.
Mets vs Padres Picks & Prediction
The pitching matchup is the central story of this MLB game, with Pivetta's dominant 2.73 ERA giving the Padres a significant advantage on paper over Peterson and his 3.77 ERA. However, situational trends and betting market signals point in the opposite direction. The Padres have been dreadful on the road against winning teams, posting a dismal 1-6 record (.143) in their last seven such games.
Furthermore, they are just 4-9 (.308) overall in their last 13 road contests. This paints a grim picture for a team playing at Citi Field, where the Mets have excelled, particularly against strong competition, going 7-2 (.778) in their last nine home games against opponents with a winning record.
The betting line movement further supports a pro-Mets angle. Despite 95% of public moneyline bets backing the Padres, the line has moved from Mets -115 to -125. This reverse line movement is a strong indicator that sharp, respected bettors are on the home team, fading the public perception that Pivetta's superiority guarantees a win.
The total has also dropped from 8.0 to 7.5, signaling that professional money expects a pitcher's duel, despite strong trends pointing to the Over. Given the conflicting signals, the value lies with the home team that has proven its mettle in this exact situation. Peterson has handled the current Padres roster well in the past, and the Mets offense showed its explosiveness in the series opener.
Score the DraftKings promo code that unlocks an offer to bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly + $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket.
Picks:
- New York Mets Moneyline (-125)
- Under 7.5 Runs (-105)
Public Betting Splits
| Bet Type | Home (NYM) | Away (SD) | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 4.76% of bets (21.62% of handle) | 95.24% of bets (78.38% of handle) | ||
| Run Line | 40.87% of bets (14.77% of handle) | 59.13% of bets (85.23% of handle) | ||
| Total Runs | 97.30% of bets (95.06% of handle) | 2.70% of bets (4.94% of handle) |
The public is overwhelmingly backing the Padres on the moneyline and the Over on the total. However, the line movement suggests sharp money is on the Mets and the Under, creating a classic "sharps vs. public" showdown.
Recent Series Action: Mets vs Padres
New York took the series opener with a decisive 8-3 victory over the Padres on Tuesday night. The Mets' offense came alive early and often, launching four home runs to overpower Padres starter Michael King, who was tagged for eight earned runs in just three innings. Sean Manaea earned the win for the hosting Mets, allowing just one run over five solid innings of work.
The Padres showed some power of their own with several solo home runs, but it wasn't nearly enough to overcome the early deficit. The win gave the Mets momentum as they head into the second game of the series.