It's the final week of the MLB regular season as the last few playoff spots are up for grabs. Bettors can turn up the intensity on tonight's action with these Padres-Brewers picks for a high-stakes NL showdown.
- An elite pitching matchup headlines this series opener, with Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta facing San Diego's Nick Pivetta.
- The Padres are playing with playoff urgency and have performed well at home against winning teams, boasting an 8-3 record in their last 11 such games.
- Despite a low total of 7.0 runs, public betting is leaning towards the Over, creating potential value on the Under in a classic pitcher's duel at PETCO Park.
A marquee pitching matchup is on tap to open the series in San Diego, where the Padres, behind their ace Nick Pivetta who boasts a stellar 2.81 ERA, look to gain ground in a tight playoff race against the visiting Milwaukee Brewers and their formidable starter, Freddy Peralta. Both pitchers have been dominant this season, with Peralta entering the contest with a sparkling 17-6 record and a 2.65 ERA, setting the stage for what projects to be a low-scoring, tactical battle.
The Brewers arrive having already secured their spot in the postseason but are looking to fine-tune their game and lock down favorable seeding. The San Diego Padres, meanwhile, are fighting for their playoff lives, making every pitch and at-bat critical down the stretch.
With two of the National League's top arms on the mound in a venue known for suppressing offense, this matchup offers a compelling clash of styles and stakes. This preview will break down the odds, analyze key player props, and provide a detailed prediction for this pivotal contest.
Padres-Brewers Betting Picks
The Brewers (95-61) and Padres (85-71) will square off at PETCO Park in San Diego, California. The first pitch is scheduled for 9:40 pm ET. The game features a premier pitching duel between Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta and San Diego's Nick Pivetta. This is the first meeting between the two clubs in this series.
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Padres vs. Brewers Odds
| Bet Type | Milwaukee Brewers Odds | San Diego Padres Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-217) | -1.5 (+176) |
| Moneyline | +104 | -126 |
| Total Runs | Over 7.0 (-115) | Under 7.0 (-106) |
Odds as of September 22, 2025 from DraftKings.
The odds position the Padres as slight home favorites, a nod to both their desperate playoff push and Pivetta's strong season. The Moneyline (vig-free) implies a close contest, giving the Padres a \~53.2% probability of winning, while the Brewers are pegged at \~46.8%.
The low total of 7.0 runs reflects the high expectations for both Peralta and Pivetta, coupled with the pitcher-friendly dimensions of PETCO Park.
Odds Movement & Analysis
The MLB betting lines have seen subtle but telling movement since opening. The Padres opened as (-132) favorites on the moneyline but have since drifted to (-126), while the Brewers have shortened from (+108) to (+104). This shift indicates that money has been coming in on the road underdogs, a trend supported by public betting splits showing both the majority of bets and handle backing Milwaukee.
The total has held firm at 7.0 runs, but the juice has shifted significantly. The Over opened at (-108) and has been bet up to (-115), while the Under moved from (-112) to (-106). This suggests heavy public action on the Over, which is common regardless of the matchup.
The line movement could be influenced by the day-to-day status of Brewers catcher William Contreras, whose absence would be a blow to their lineup. For bettors, the movement on the total has created better value on the Under, a potentially sharp play against the public tide given the two aces on the mound.
Injury Reports for Sep 22
San Diego Padres
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status | Potential Impact / Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | IF | Foot | D10 | Key bat missing from the middle of the lineup. |
| Nestor Cortes | P | Elbow | D15 | Weakens the starting rotation depth. |
| Jason Adam | P | Quad | D15 | Reduces high-leverage options in the bullpen. |
| David Morgan | P | Shoulder | D15 | Further tests the Padres' bullpen depth. |
| Joe Musgrove | P | Elbow | D60 | Season-ending injury; a major loss for the rotation. |
| Jhony Brito | P | Forearm | D60 | Out for the season, impacting long-term pitching depth. |
Milwaukee Brewers
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status | Potential Impact / Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Contreras | C | Hand | Day-to-Day | Elite offensive catcher; his absence would significantly hurt the lineup. |
| Brandon Woodruff | P | Lat | D15 | Ace pitcher on the IL, a huge blow to the rotation. |
| Jose Quintana | P | Calf | D15 | Veteran starter sidelined, thinning rotation options. |
| Garrett Mitchell | OF | Oblique | D60 | Loss of a key defensive outfielder and speed on the bases. |
| Jordan Montgomery | P | Elbow | D60 | Another top-tier starter lost for an extended period. |
| Trevor Megill | P | Flexor Strain | D15 | Key high-leverage arm missing from the back end of the bullpen. |
| DL Hall | P | Oblique | D15 | Versatile left-handed arm unavailable out of the pen. |
| Shelby Miller | P | Elbow | D60 | Veteran reliever out for the season. |
| Logan Henderson | P | Elbow | D60 | Young arm sidelined, impacting organizational depth. |
| Connor Thomas | P | Elbow | D60 | Another depth pitcher unavailable for the season. |
Padres vs. Brewers Player Props: Hitting
| Player | Hits | Total Bases | Home Runs | RBIs | Runs Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 (O -195 | U +146) | 1.5 (O +131 | U -174) | +341 | 0.5 (O +157 | U -220) | 0.5 (O +121 | U -168) |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 (O -188 | U +141) | 1.5 (O +137 | U -184) | +405 | 0.5 (O +201 | U -287) | 0.5 (O +108 | U -149) |
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 1.5 (O +184 | U -249) | 1.5 (O +122 | U -162) | +1020 | 0.5 (O +235 | U -340) | 0.5 (O +133 | U -186) |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 (O -169 | U +126) | N/A | +591 | 0.5 (O +210 | U -302) | 0.5 (O +146 | U -203) |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 (O -191 | U +142) | N/A | +506 | 0.5 (O +185 | U -262) | 0.5 (O +144 | U -202) |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 (O -228 | U +169) | 1.5 (O +120 | U -160) | +490 | 0.5 (O +191 | U -272) | 0.5 (O +131 | U -183) |
Fernando Tatis Jr. has historically struggled mightily against Peralta (0-for-6, 5 K), making the Under 1.5 Total Bases at (-184) a logical, if heavily juiced, consideration. Jake Cronenworth, however, has owned Peralta (2-for-5, HR), making his Over 0.5 Hits prop at (-128) an appealing target.
Padres vs. Brewers Picks & Prediction
This matchup is a classic clash between a team with everything to play for and a postseason-bound club looking to stay sharp. The core of this handicap is the starting pitching, where Pivetta and Peralta present one of the best duels of the week.
Both have ERAs under 3.00, but their xFIPs (3.80 for Pivetta, 3.90 for Peralta) suggest both have benefited from some good fortune and could be due for regression. However, in the pitcher-friendly confines of PETCO Park, both are more than capable of delivering an ace performance.
Several key trends pull in opposite directions. The Brewers have been a juggernaut as an underdog, posting a staggering 15-4 (.789) record in their last 19 games in that role and a 13-4 (.765) mark as a road underdog. Conversely, the Padres have been excellent at home against quality opponents, going 8-3 (.727) in their last 11 such contests. Adding another layer, the Brewers have struggled recently against winning teams, with a 1-6 (.143) record over their last seven.
Given the Padres' immense pressure to win and their proven ability to rise to the occasion at home, their motivation gets the slight edge. The Brewers, while still playing for seeding, don't face the same do-or-die stakes.
The most compelling trend, however, is the head-to-head history, where the Under has cashed in each of the last three meetings between these clubs. With two elite arms on the mound and offenses that can be neutralized, another low-scoring affair is the most likely outcome. The Padres' urgency should be enough to get them a narrow victory in a game dominated by pitching.
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Picks:
- San Diego Padres Moneyline (-126)
- Under 7.0 Runs (-106)
Public Betting on Padres vs Brewers
The public betting splits reveal a fascinating dynamic for this MLB game. On the moneyline, both the public and sharp money are aligned, with 59% of the bets and a whopping 78% of the handle backing the Brewers.
This suggests a strong belief in the road underdogs, making a play on the Padres a contrarian stance. For the total, the public is heavily favoring the Over, with 65% of bets and 63% of the money expecting more than 7.0 runs. This heavy public lean on the Over reinforces the value of betting the Under, especially with two high-caliber pitchers on the mound in a pitcher's park.