The stage is set for the next round of the MLB playoffs, with all four series starting on Saturday.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers, 2 p.m. ET
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 4:40 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Phillies, 6 p.m. ET
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners, 8:40 p.m. ET
Below, we explain our favorite MLB playoff picks for Saturday. Check out MLB betting bonuses on Fanatics Sportsbook, DraftKings and other apps to make these wagers.
Freddy Peralta 7+ Strikeouts (+110) Fanatics
This is a number that Freddy Peralta has only gone over in 13 of 33 starts this year, but he has gotten much better as the season has gone on. Since the beginning of August, he has made 10 starts and reached 7+ strikeouts in six of those 10 starts.
That said, his last two starts he had a limited pitch count to keep his arm fresh. So, six of his last 10 quickly becomes six of eight, and in both starts he went under he came close with exactly six strikeouts.
In those 10 starts, he has a 12.35 K/9 and a 34.8% strikeout rate, two fantastic numbers. For context, if you extrapolated those two numbers out to all qualified pitchers, it would be the best K/9 and strikeout rate in MLB.
It is not just a recent stretch, either, as if you go back to July 1st until now, which is a total of 16 starts, he still has a very good K/9 of 11.40 and strikeout rate of 31.4%.
As far as the matchup goes, this is a Cubs team that struck out 36.1% of the time in their Wild Card series against the Padres, which, by far, led all teams that played in the Wild Card series.
Only one other team was even above 30%, and that was the Reds at 31.6%. While it is a small sample size in which they were facing the best pitching the Padres had to offer, that is still a high K rate, as the highest strikeout rate in the regular season was all the way down at 27.1%.
Giancarlo Stanton Home Run (+350) ESPN BET
We had to get at least one home run prop on the board today, and Giancarlo Stanton has as great of an opportunity as any to clear a fence today. While the pitching matchup against Kevin Gausman is a tough one (every pitcher is good today), Stanton has had a ton of success against Gausman in the past.
These two have seen each other a lot over the past three years, with 21 total plate appearances. Taking out three in which Stanton was walked, he had five total hits off Gausman, for a batting average of .278. To go even deeper than that, three of those five hits were no-doubter home runs, two of which coming this year. He also had a double off Gausman as well among those five hits.
Despite not going deep in the Wild Card round against the Red Sox, Stanton had a pretty good series overall. He had two total barrels and six HardHits, including one last game that was 114.5 mph off the bat and traveled 393 feet. It hit the top of the wall for a double instead of a home run, but it would have been a home run in 15/30 parks. He also had another flyout that was 101.3 mph exit velocity and traveled 384 feet. He goes yard today.
Shohei Ohtani 7+ Strikeouts (+114) FanDuel
After throwing 54 or fewer pitches in his first eight starts this season, Shohei Ohtani started to rack up the pitch count in his last six starts to end the season, averaging 77 pitches in his last six starts. Of those six starts, he reached at least seven strikeouts three times, which just so happened to be all three starts in which he threw 80+ pitches.
In the playoffs, the Dodgers manager has stated that Ohtani could throw 90+ pitches, making this a great opportunity for him to get to the seven-strikeout number that we need to cash this. In the three starts that he did manage to throw 80 or more pitches, he had 7, 9 and 8 strikeouts in those three starts.
He did make one start against the Phillies to end the season, and while he did not make it to seven strikeouts, he only threw 68 pitches as they were still being safe with his arm. That said, in that start he went five innings without allowing a single hit, only allowing one baserunner total. He only allowed four HardHits as well, so it was not as though the Phillies were having unlucky outs or anything like that.
So, in a playoff game with a Dodgers bullpen that you cannot trust, the guess here is that Ohtani is at least going to go 80 pitches, and could easily go 90+ as well, giving us plenty of opportunities to hit the seven-strikeout number needed to cash this over.
George Kirby 7+ Strikeouts (-109) DraftKings
Lastly, let's roll with another strikeout prop to end the evening, taking George Kirby to whiff at least seven Tigers in Seattle tonight. The Tigers managed to win the three-game series against the Guardians, in Cleveland, but their bats were not very impressive.
Gavin Williams struck out eight Tigers in six innings, on an over/under of 5.5, and Tanner Bibee went over his strikeout prop, striking out six Tigers in only 4.2 innings pitched on an o/u of 5.5. The Game 3 starter, Slade Cecconi, only pitched 2.1 innings before the Guardians went to the bullpen, but he still struck out three batters.
Overall, the Tigers struck out 27.7% of the time, which is not quite at the same level as the Cubs, of course, but still would have led the regular season in terms of strikeout rate. Kirby, meanwhile, struck out 14, 7 and 10 batters in his last three starts to end the regular season, and had a good season overall after struggling in his first month or so of the year.
The guess here is that Kirby can go 6+ innings against a Tigers team that cooled off at the plate over the month of September, striking out seven or more to bring us home tonight.