We're on to the second day of these MLB Wild Card games, with a lot of fun baseball played yesterday. Now, the teams up 1-0 are looking to close out their series with a win today, while the losers of yesterday's games need to win to stay alive. There are four games once again, in the same order as yesterday:
- Tigers vs. Guardians, 1:08 p.m. ET. Tigers up 1-0
- Padres vs. Cubs, 3:08 p.m. ET. Cubs up 1-0
- Red Sox vs. Yankees, 6:08 p.m. ET. Red Sox up 1-0
- Reds vs. Dodgers, 9:08 p.m. ET. Dodgers up 1-0
Below, we will detail our favorite plays for each game today.
New users can register for an account with the BetMGM bonus code TSN150 to win $150 in bonus bets or get a $1,500 First Bet Offer.
Tanner Bibee 6+ Strikeouts (+120) FanDuel
The Tigers struck out a ton yesterday to Gavin Williams (eight times, to be exact), and they continue to be a fantastic matchup for pitcher strikeout props. On the season, they struck out at the third-highest rate against RHP at 24.5%, and they have only gotten worse as the season has gone on. From the All-Star break and on, they strikeout rate went up to 26.2% (second-highest in the MLB) and all the way up to 27.7% since September 1st.
Over the last 30 days specifically, they have eight of their projected nine-man lineup that have a strikeout rate of 23.8% or higher, including five that are 30% or higher. Those are truly horrible numbers in terms of striking out, and Bibee has been better recently at striking batters out.
On the season, his strikeout rate is 21.3%, but has jumped up to 25.5% over the last 30 days. Even more specific than that, he stuck out 27.5% of the LHH over this stretch, and he should see five lefties in the lineup tonight. In three starts against the Tigers this year, Bibee recorded 6+ strikeouts in two of those three, and in the one he missed, he came close with five. He'll get to 6 today.
Dylan Cease 7+ Strikeouts (+128) bet365
Next up, another strikeout prop for the second game of the day, this time backing Dylan Cease to get us to the seven strikeout number to cash this out. Backing Cease might seem scary, who has not been great this regular season, but in his last five starts, he showed some promise, with one bad start in that stretch and ending with a 3.12 ERA and 2.56 FIP.
The good news, however, is that Cease did a good job racking up strikeouts all season, regardless of how much he got hit up. He went over this number in 53% of his starts this year, hitting at least seven in 17/32 starts. For +128 odds, that is decent value off the bat, and he landed on exactly six strikeouts in seven separate games as well.
While the Cubs do not strike out at the same rate that the Tigers do, Cease also has much better strikeout stuff. On the year, Cease had the third-highest strikeout rate in the MLB at 29.8%, with the best K/9 at 11.52. If he can get through five innings today, which he did in 22/32 starts this year, he should be able to get us to this seven number as well.
Yankees Team Total Over 3.5 (-140) BetMGM
While these odds are definitely steeper than we typically go for, there are a lot of advantages in favor of the Yankees bats. It might seem counterintuitive after they only scored one run in yesterday's game, but this is a completely different situation. They faced one of the best pitchers in baseball in Garrett Crochet for 7.2 innings, and then one of the best closers in baseball in Aroldis Chapman for the remaining 1.1 innings. Crochet threw an absurd 117 innings, and 24 from Chapman.
The most notable part about that is the Yankees only saw left-handed pitching yesterday, and they might see nine innings of RHP tonight, depending on whether Chapman ends up being available based on how the game goes. While the Yankees are good both against lefties and righties, they have a ton of left-handed bats that benefit from facing RHP, especially at Yankee Stadium with the short right field porch.
On the season, the Yankees were tied with the Mets for the best wRC+ against RHP in the entire MLB, while also leading the MLB in the following categories: wOBA, wRAA, ISO rate, OPS, and slugging.
The Red Sox starting pitcher, Brayan Bello, is not a bad pitcher, but there are some metrics to show that he benefited from luck to have his low ERA of 3.35. His xERA of 4.42, FIP of 4.19, xFIP of 4.39, and SIERA of 4.55 are evidence of that. The Yankees get to him today.
Claim the DraftKings promo code that unlocks an offer to bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets (if you win) on MLB Playoffs action today.
Dodgers -1.5 over Reds (-130) FanDuel
This game, by far, has the biggest mismatch when it comes to the starting pitching matchup and each team's bats. Yoshinobu Yamamoti is the starting pitcher for the Dodgers, who was unhittable over the last month of the regular season. Over his last five starts, he gave up a combined three earned runs and one home run, with a 0.79 ERA. He struck out at least seven batters in all five starts, reaching 10 Ks three separate times. So, his strikeouts are in play for today as well.
This is also a Reds team that cannot hit right-handed pitching, as they had a bottom-10 lineup against righties on the season, according to wRC+.
Then, on the other side of the mound, Zack Littell is pitching for the Reds, who allowed the second-most home runs overall over the regular season with the second-highest HR/9 as well. Not being able to keep the ball in the yard is a death sentence against this Dodgers team, who, unsurprisingly, hit the second-most home runs in the MLB in the regular season.
The Dodgers hit five home runs yesterday, and it would not be a shock to see them do that once again. They won 10-5 yesterday, and could do that again today.