The MLB postseason is finally here. Action starts with four Wild Card matchups on Tuesday.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians, 1:08 p.m. ET
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs, 3:08 p.m. ET
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees, 6:08 p.m. ET
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, 9:08 p.m. ET
Below, we explain our favorite MLB playoff picks. Take advantage of several MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel, ESPN BET, DraftKings and bet365 to make your bets.
Gavin Williams 7+ Strikeouts (+136) FanDuel
This is a batter vs. pitcher matchup where these two have seen a lot of each other, as the last two starts Gavin Williams made in the regular season was against this Tigers team. Normally, those types of situations favor the bats, as they get more reps against the pitcher, but that has not seemed to matter in this situation.
In those last two starts against the Detroit Tigers, Williams has nine and 12 strikeouts. He has hit 7+ strikeouts in five straight starts against the Tigers, and, to go even deeper than that, has recorded 8 or more strikeouts in all five of those starts. He hit eight Ks twice, nine Ks twice, and then 12 Ks in his last start against the Tigers.
So, this is a matchup that Williams has dominated in the past, and, in general, these Tigers bats have gone cold recently. Over the last 30 days, they have an absurd seven of their nine batters that struck out 23.5% or higher, including six of them 27.3% and above, and five above 30% strikeout rate. That is horrific, and now they get a matchup against Gavin Williams and his strikeout rate of 30.6% over the last 30 days. He gets to seven in this one.
Padres Moneyline (+100) ESPN BET
Despite being the away team, the San Diego Padres have the advantage in pretty much every facet of this game. Their bats have been hitting better recently; they have the better starting pitcher and the bullpen advantage as well. After the moves they made at the trade deadline, the Padres might have the best bullpen in all of baseball, which is a major advantage once we get to the post season.
The Cubs bats started hot, but they have been pretty much average since August 1st, with the 14th-ranked wRC+ at 99. To confirm, a completely average wRC+ is +100, so technically the Cubs have been below-average, but by the slightest margin possible.
Unfortunately, they are going up against Nick Pivetta, who has been fantastic all year. He has a 2.87 ERA, with a 3.49 FIP, 3.85 xFIP and 3.70 SIERA, all good numbers. On the flip side, the left-handed Matthew Boyd is pitching for the Cubs, who started the year hot but has struggled to end the year. In his last nine starts, he has a 5.51 ERA with a 5.07 FIP, allowing at least two earned runs in all nine of those starts, and four or more in five of those nine.
With the Padres being a top 10 lineup against LHP in the month of September, they should be able to get to Boyd and trust their bullpen to keep the lead.
Aaron Judge Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105) BetMGM
This might seem like a random market, but Judge has historically struggled in the playoffs throughout his career. He has 58 career postseason games and is only hitting .205 in those games. The last two playoff runs specifically, in a total of 23 games, he has hit under .200 in both postseason runs. Last year, he hit .184, and the last playoff run (in 2022), he hit .139.
This is also a pitching matchup that he has struggled with as well, going up against Garrett Crochet. These two have seen each other 13 times this year, and Judge has struck out in 10 of those 13 ABs.
Of course, he did manage to hit two home runs as well, but, often, Judge has not even been able to make contact against Crochet. While it might feel scary, fading Judge is the way to go for this game tonight. Make this pick with a $150 bonus after signing up with the BetMGM bonus code TSN150.
Blake Snell 8+ Strikeouts (+160) bet365
Along with Williams mentioned above, we are also expecting Blake Snell to rack up the strikeouts in this game. Snell spent much of the season injured, but he ended the season on an impressive run, albeit in a small sample size. In his last three starts of the regular season, Snell allowed a combined one earned run in 19 innings pitched, allowing a 0.74 WHIP and .138 average. His strikeout stuff was good too, with a combined 28 strikeouts and a strikeout rate of 40%.
While the Reds do not strike out a ton against left-handed pitching, they also struggle to hit lefties. They have the third-worst wRC+ against LHP since August 1st, with a wRC+ of 80. It was not only a recent thing, either, as the Reds had the fifth-worst offense in the MLB on the season against lefties, with a wRC+ of 79. So, the guess here is that Snell is going to pitch deeper into the game, which will help his chances of getting the eight-strikeout number we need.
Snell did hit this in three of his last five starts, and five of his last nine, and only went 7+ innings twice in that stretch. He did not see the Reds once this year, but last year he had one start against them and struck out 11. He gets to eight tonight.