It’s finally time for the Wild Card round of the MLB playoffs after a wild ending to the regular season. There are four games total, with action starting at 1 pm ET between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians.
For this article, we will be focusing on home run picks for the opening day of the postseason. So, please read below for our three favorite HR predictions and the sportsbook odds. Use MLB betting bonuses on bet365 and FanDuel to lock these in.
| MLB Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Giancarlo Stanton | +350 on bet365 |
| Freddie Freeman | +425 on bet365 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +440 on FanDuel |
Stanton Crushes One at Yankee Stadium
While home runs are admittedly harder to come by once the playoffs start due to bullpen usage designed to get certain batters out, Giancarlo Stanton has a great situation to hit a home run today. Of the four games, Yankee Stadium is the best hitting venue in general, and the weather is relatively neutral for home runs, so there is nothing to fear there.
Garrett Crochet, the Boston Red Sox pitcher, is obviously a fantastic arm, but he has struggled with the long ball recently. Over the last five weeks, he has allowed a home run every 16 at-bats, which jumps up to every 11 at-bats against RHH specifically. Stanton, meanwhile, has been hitting lefties well recently, with a .304 ISO rate and 30.8%-barrel rate against LHP over the last 30 days.
He has hit three home runs over the last week for the New York Yankees, with an absurd five hits above 100+ mph EV over his last three games, and three balls launched (105+ mph off the bat, 10–40-degree launch angle). All those numbers previously mentioned lead the Yankees, and Stanton was fantastic in last year’s playoffs as well. He goes yard today.
Freeman Stays Hot, Homers for Dodgers
Freddie Freeman ended the season on a roll, with three home runs in his last three games played for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He hit two home runs on 9/25, had 9/26 off, then hit another one in only two plate appearances on 9/28, the last day of the MLB regular season. He had a combined five HardHits in those three games as well, and that includes limited action due to being taken out.
The Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher in Hunter Greene is another pitcher, like Crochet, that is very good but is also capable of allowing home runs. He has allowed a home run every 21 at-bats to lefties on the season, with allowing a high HardHit rate of 59% and fly-ball rate of 40%. He does strike out a lot of batters, which makes those percentages numbers high, but those are still solid numbers.
While Freeman does not have a home run off Greene, he does have good numbers against him. In nine plate appearances, Freeman has three hits, batting .333, with two doubles as well.
Lastly, this is the best venue for home runs of all four games today, with a +11% home run index thanks to the weather and park factors of Dodger Stadium. Freeman clears a fence tonight.
Tatis Crushes One in Windy Wrigley
Fernando Tatis Jr. did have a disappointing regular season in the home run department, but he started to come on as the season ended and has historically performed very well in the playoffs. He has only played in 13 playoff games in his career due to injuries, but in those 13 games he is batting .375 with 18 hits and six home runs. In last year’s playoffs, he hit four home runs in seven games, with an absurd 1.000 slugging and 1.500 OPS.
Now, he heads into this postseason on a roll. In his last 10 games played (he missed some time to end the regular season, so we are just looking at games he played in), he has 12 hits above 100+ mph, four 100+ fly-balls, and six balls launched. All three of those categories leads the San Diego Padres, hitting the ball in the air at a solid rate of a 41% fly-ball rate in this stretch.
While Tatis has historically been worse against lefties throughout his career, over his last 30 days he has a .429 ISO rate and 23.5%-barrel rate against LHP. The wind blowing in at Wrigley is always concern, but single-digit winds should not have a dramatic impact on the ball, even at Wrigley Field, so we like Tatis to hit one tonight at the solid price of +440.