Even with football returning, let's not forget about the end of the MLB regular season, which features some division battles as these teams look to lock up playoff positioning. There is a full slate today of 15 MLB games, giving us plenty of option for our home run picks.
We go over our three best MLB home run prop bets today. There are MLB betting bonuses on DraftKings and ESPN BET to lock in these picks.
| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Nick Kurtz | +300 on DraftKings |
| George Springer | +375 on ESPN BET |
| Kerry Carpenter | +450 on DraftKings |
Kurtz Sends One Deep for A's
While Nick Kurtz has slowed down after his four-home run outing back in July, he is starting to round back into form. He has three barrels over the last seven days, hitting two home runs in this stretch as well. While he did not have a great day at the plate yesterday, we can forgive that as Garrett Crochet was pitching.
The pitching matchup is an important one, as Kurtz and the Athletics will be facing Dustin May as the Red Sox starter, who has struggled with the long ball this season, allowing a home run every 19 at-bats to left-handed hitters. Generally, we like for this number to be under every 20 ABs, so he is within the range for a pitcher target.
Unsurprisingly, and this is typically the case on most slates, this game at Sutter Health Park is the best home run venue of the day, by far. It has a +29-home run index thanks to the hot temperatures and winds blowing out, along with already being a hitter-friendly park. He goes long tonight.
Springer Crushes One in Toronto
George Springer has been hitting very well recently, with an astounding six barrels in his last seven games and is coming off a game on Sunday (his last game played) with three HardHits and one barrel. He also has an excellent fly-ball rate of 60%, putting the ball in the air at a fantastic rate.
The pitching matchup is somewhat of an unknown, with Luis Garcia on the mound for the Astros. He has only made one start this year, but he allowed two home runs in six innings pitched in that start. He allowed an absurd 20%-barrel rate in that start as well, allowing an average launch angle of 30 degrees, which is a death sentence.
With Springer doing a good job hitting home runs recently (three in the last week, five in the last two weeks, and nine over the last 30 days) in a decent pitching matchup, he is a great look to go yard once again tonight.
Carpenter Homers at Yankee Stadium
The short right field porch at Yankee Stadium is perfect for the hitting style of Kerry Carpenter. He does an excellent job pulling the ball, 47% of the time on the year. He has been good recently as well, with both a fly-ball and pull-rate of 66% over the last seven days.
He has been hitting well in general over the last week, with a 14%-barrel rate and 85% HardHit rate. As for tonight, he has a great matchup against the Yankees starter Will Warren, who is a decent pitcher overall but can get hit up by left-handed hitters.
Over the last eight weeks, he has allowed a home run every 24 at-bats, which is below the 20 number that we typically look for, but still good enough for our purposes. The biggest issue for Warren is allowing lefties to barrel the ball up, allowing a 12.50%-barrel rate and 50% HardHit rate to LHH over his last five starts. Trust Carpenter tonight.