If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation. Learn more >

MLB Home Run Picks: 3 Home Run Picks for MLB Wild Card Games (Oct. 1)

Alex Payton

MLB Home Run Picks: 3 Home Run Picks for MLB Wild Card Games (Oct. 1) image

© Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Yesterday featured a fun slate of MLB Wild Card games, and now we have four more games scheduled for today. It is the same four games as yesterday in the same order, starting with the Tigers/Guardians at 1:08 p.m. ET and finishing up with the Reds/Dodgers at 9:08 p.m. ET.

 

 

Not a ton of home runs were hit yesterday, which is typical for the MLB playoffs, but we are back today to see if we can get any of our favorite MLB home run predictions to come through today. There are MLB bet boosts available at Fanatics, bet365, and DraftKings to use for these home run picks.

Sign-up for an account using the linked BetMGM bonus code TSN150 to score $150 in bonus bets or get a $1,500 First Bet Offer.

MLB Home Run PickOdds
Teoscar Hernandez+410 at Fanatics
Freddie Freeman+475 at bet365
Ben Rice+533 at DraftKings

Hernandez Stays Hot, Homers Again Tonight

Teoscar Hernandez hit two home runs yesterday, and he has a great opportunity to hit another one tonight. For starters, this is the best venue for home runs of all the four games today, and by a wide margin. Dodgers stadium is generally a hitter-friendly park, and the weather in Los Angeles today is completely neutral. Compare that with the other three games, that all three have a negative home run impact.

Along with the two bombs yesterday, Hernandez had four HardHits in general. The two home runs were absolutely crushed, 108.7 and 104.3 mph off the bat, respectively, but he had another hit that was 106.5 mph exit velocity, and a flyout that was 98.9 EV. So, that is three hits above 100 mph EV, and another one that was put in that air at 98.9. A very impressive day for Hernandez even outside of the two home runs.

Now, he gets a matchup against Zack Littell, who allowed the second-most home runs in the MLB during the regular season. He allowed 36 total, with a 1.74 HR/9, which was also the second-worst in the MLB. A red-hot batter going up against one of the biggest home run pitchers in the MLB seems like a recipe for disaster, so we will roll with Hernandez to stay hot tonight.

Freeman Joins Hernandez, Goes Deep for Dodgers

With such a good home run situation for the Dodgers tonight, it only makes sense to double-up and take another batter to hit a home run, this time in Freddie Freeman. Freeman obviously gets the same benefits of playing at Dodger stadium and going up against Zack Littell that Teoscar Hernandez does, so right off the bat he is in a good spot to hit a home run.

While Freeman did not quite have the same night at the plate that Hernandez did, of course, he still did have a good day overall. He had two HardHits total, both of which were impressive. One was a double that was 100.5 mph off the bat with a 27 degree launch angle that traveled 376 feet, with another HardHit flyout that traveled 345 feet.

Freeman also ended the season on a roll, hitting three home runs in the last seven days of the regular season. Look for him to go yard tonight.

Claim the DraftKings promo code to get an offer to win $200 in bonus bets for MLB postseason action.

Rice Goes Long at Yankee Stadium

 

Rice did not play at all yesterday, as the Red Sox had a left-handed pitcher on the mound for all nine innings of the game. That will not be the case today, with a righty on the mound in Brayan Bello for the Red Sox. Bello is a good pitcher, but this is another situation that favors the batter.

While the weather at Yankee Stadium is not ideal for home runs, the park is perfect for left-handed hitters such as Ben Rice due to the short right field porch. Anything hit to right field still has a positive home run factor thanks to that, which is perfect for Rice and his 52.9% pull-rate over the last week of the regular season.

Rice also ended the season on a roll, with three barrels and nine HardHits over the last seven days of the regular season. That includes a two barrel, two home run day on the last day of the regular season as well. So, while Bello is a good pitcher, Rice has good numbers against his pitch-mix and has a good chance to go yard at the nice (+533) price on DraftKings.

Alex Payton

Alex Payton is a betting content producer for The Sporting News. A resident of Kentucky, Alex graduated from the University of Louisville in 2017 and is a devoted Cardinals fan. He has several years of experience creating dedicated content for various publications in the online sports betting industry.