There are only eight days left of the MLB regular season, with the last regular season games finishing up on September 28th, and the Wild Card round of the playoffs shortly after. So, some of our home run picks could be crucial for seeding.
We will be focusing on the best MLB home run predictions for Saturday. There are MLB betting bonuses on bet365 and DraftKings to lock-in these plays.
| MLB Home Run Picks | Odds |
| Michael Busch | +292 on DraftKings |
| Spencer Torkelson | +375 on bet365 |
| Matt Olson | +404 on DraftKings |
Busch Goes Yard for Cubs in Cincinnati
As the temperatures cool off from the hot days of summer, that also means the home run weather is not as juicy now as it had been during that time. One way to combat that is to look at positive home run venues, such as the Reds home stadium, Great American Ballpark.
From a stadium perspective alone, it is the second-best venue in the MLB, only behind Coors Field in Colorado. For today, with temperatures in the mid 80s, the weather is mostly neutral as well.
Michael Bucsh has somewhat steep odds at +292, but it is for good reason. Over his last three games started (taking out last game where he came in as a pinch-hitter), Busch has a ridiculous five 100+ mph exit velocity fly-balls, which leads the MLB. He has two "balls launched" as well, which is 105+ mph off the bat and a launch angle between 10-40 degrees.
Over the last seven days, he has six barrels and 14 HardHits, two fantastic numbers that ties him with the most barrels in the MLB, and the third-most HardHits.
Not only has he been on fire, but he is going up against Zack Littell, who has the second-worst HR/9 of all qualified pitchers in baseball. This is a dream matchup for Busch, so let's hope he comes through with a home run.
Torkelson Goes Back-to-Back for Tigers
Spencer Torkelson went yard yesterday and has a great opportunity to do so once again today. Like Busch, he has also been on a roll recently. He ties Busch, and the league-leaders, with six barrels over the last seven days, adding in a solid 12 HardHits as well. He also leads MLB with eight hits above 100+ mph exit velocity over the last three games and is tied with the second-most balls launched in this stretch.
Comerica Park, the Tigers home stadium, is not considered a hitter’s park by any means due to their deep center field, but one area where home run hitters have an advantage is if they can manage to pull the ball. The center field is deep, but the right and left fields are shallow.
So, the strategy here is to look for pull-hitters, which brings us to Torkelson. Over this same seven-day stretch, he has an absurdly high pull-rate of 73% and is hitting groundballs at a low rate of only 20%.
Lastly, Torkelson is facing a left-handed pitcher in Joey Wentz, and he has fantastic numbers against lefties. On the year, he has an ISO rate of .270 against LHP, up from .204 against RHP. Wentz is a decent pitcher overall, but this should be the advantage towards Torkelson, which hopefully leads to him clearing a fence.
Olson Matches Torkelson with His Own Homer
Unsurprisingly, Matt Olson is another batter who, along with Busch and Torkelson, has been on fire recently. He, once again, has six barrels over the last seven days, and is tied with the second-most HardHits with 16.
Not only that, but he also leads the entire MLB in total balls launched over his last three games with five, while also leading the last five games with six balls launched and is tied with Aaron Judge with eight over the last 10 games. So, this is all to say that Olson has been on a roll for a while now.
He had gone six straight days with a home run heading into yesterday (taking out Thursday, when the Braves were off), and while he did not go yard yesterday, he still had a good game with two total HardHits. Both were put in the air at a decent rate with a launch angle of 21 and 40 degrees on those two HardHits, with 98.9 and 98.8 exit velocity. He needed to hit them a little harder to be a real home run threat, but still a good day overall.
Olson gets a good pitching matchup in this one, going up against Keider Montero. On the year, Montero has allowed a home run every 16 at-bats to left-handed hitters, with a HR/9 of 2.24. He has not pitched enough innings to qualify, but that would be the seventh-worst of all qualified pitchers if so. Olson goes yard again today.