There are only three days left of the MLB regular season. We have two division races, along with teams fighting for AL and NL Wild Card spots. Below, we explain our favorite home run picks for Friday, September 26th.
| MLB Home Run Pick | Odds |
| James Wood | +400 on ESPN BET |
| Colson Montgomery | +500 on bet365 |
| Michael Harris II | +540 on FanDuel |
Wood Continues Heater, Homers Friday
James Wood was a home run darling at the beginning of the season, but has really cooled off, especially since the end of June. For context, he hit 22 home runs in 79 games from the beginning of the season to 6/23, with an ISO rate of 284. Then, the next 73 games after that he only hit five home runs with an ISO rate of .118 in that stretch.
However, with all that said, it seems as though he is getting back in a groove to end the season, as he has hit a home run in back-to-back games, with a total of three barrels in that stretch. Looking at his last three games, he has a total of five hits above 100+ mph exit velocity, three of which were considered fly-balls, which ties him with the league lead in that category.
He has a good pitching matchup, going up against Yoendrys Gomez, who has allowed a home run every 16.50 at-bats to left-handed hitters over the last five weeks. Wood goes yard once again today.
Montgomery Matches Wood With HR
In the same game just on the other side of the field, we're rocking with Colson Montgomery to hit one for the Chicago White Sox. He has similarly been hitting well, with five hits above 100+ mph exit velocity over his last three games, and three "balls launched," which are hits above 105 mph EV and a launch angle between 10-40 degrees. One batter has more with four, and there are seven batters tied with three, including Wood mentioned above.
While Montgomery has only hit one home run over the last seven days, a lot of his advanced numbers show a batter that is hitting well, so the guess here is that the home runs are going to come for him over these next couple days. This is the same batter that hit an absurd 18 home runs in a 37-game span from 7/22 to 9/5. He had a .406 ISO rate and 18.6%-barrel rate in that stretch.
This is another situation where the batter has a favorable pitching matchup, with Cade Cavalli on the mound for the Washington Nationals. Just like Gomez mentioned previously, Cavalli has also allowed a home run every 16.50 ABs to lefties over the last five weeks. Check out daily MLB betting boosts for home runs on the bet365 app.
Harris II Goes Yard at Truist Park
When talking about the hottest batters in baseball over the last week or so, Michael Harris II must be at the top of that conversation. He is tied with the league-lead in barrels over the last week with five (tied with one other batter) and is tied with three other batters with the sixth-most HardHits with 12 total.
To go even further than that, he is tied with one other batter with the second-most hits above 100 mph EV over the last three games with seven total and is also tied with Montgomery and Wood with three balls launched in this same stretch of games.
He has been destroying the baseball, and that has been the case going back a little further with 10 hits above 100+ mph EV over his last five games (third-most in MLB). He has an even better pitching matchup than the previous two batters mentioned, going up against Mitch Keller of the Pittsburgh Pirates, who has allowed a home run every 10 at-bats to LHH over his last five starts. He has allowed a 10%-barrel rate and 51.35% HardHit rate to lefties in this stretch as well.
There is decent weather in Atlanta for home runs, with high humidity and low barometric pressure, which both help with carry. Truist Park also has shorter right field than it does left field, so it is generally a higher value park for left-handed pull hitters such as Harris II, who has a pull rate above 40% over the last week.