The Detroit Tigers and the Seattle Mariners are set to play a massive winner-takes-all Game 5 of the ALDS in Seattle for the chance to play the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALCS.
While the game is in Seattle, giving the Mariners home-field advantage, there is one major reason why the Tigers have the upper hand in the series finale.
As Daniel Kramer of MLB.com found, with Tarik Skubal on the mound, the Tigers have more than a simple pitching advantage. There's one insane statistic that shows why the Tigers have a distinct advantage over Seattle, and it's thanks to Skubal.
Tigers have a major advantage over the Mariners with Tarik Skubal on the mound
"No team has ever defeated the Tigers four times in a single season in a game started by Skubal over his six-year career," Kramer writes, "and the Mariners will have to become the first to advance to the AL Championship series, where the Blue Jays await after defeating the Yankees in the ALDS."
Not only will the Mariners have to get after Skubal, which will be a herculean task on its own, but they'll need to become the first team in Skubal's career to beat him four times in a single season.
This season, Skubal has a 2.21 ERA in 31 starts with 241 strikeouts and a 13-6 record. He's likely the AL Cy Young favorite, which would be his second consecutive Cy Young award.
Skubal has been an incredible pitcher in the playoffs as well, with a 1.84 ERA in two starts this October, and in 2024, he had a 2.37 ERA in three outings.
There's plenty of reason to be confident in Skubal, but the Mariners do pose a more challenging matchup for Skubal. Against Seattle earlier this series, the Tigers' ace gave up two solo home runs to Jorge Polanco, eventually leading to a Tigers loss.
More: Tigers' Tarik Skubal joins elite company with stellar outing, but not enough to beat Mariners
Against Seattle this season, Skubal hasn't been at his best. On April 2nd, Skubal allowed three earned runs in 5.2 innings against the Mariners in his second outing of the year.
Then, shortly before the All-Star break in July, Skubal allowed four earned runs in five innings of work to the Mariners, which was his third loss on the season, and his first loss since his April loss to the Mariners earlier that season.
Skubal was on the hook for the loss in both regular-season games against Seattle and in the playoffs. Although Skubal only allowed two runs in seven innings, the Tigers' offense could only manage two runs for the entire game, leading to a 3-2 Mariners win.
While Seattle has managed to get after Skubal this season, no team has done so four times against Skubal in his big league career. The Tigers' ace has the advantage, even with the Mariners' success off him this season.
Combined with the fact that Seattle would need to do something to Skubal and Detroit that no team has done before, Detroit has the upper hand heading into a winner-takes-all Game 5 of the ALDS in Seattle.
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