It’s no secret that the Chicago Cubs are in the market for starting pitching this trade deadline.
The need for another arm was apparent after ace Justin Steele was lost for the season in April with an elbow injury, and it has only grown more urgent as the season has gone along. Veteran right-handers Colin Rea and Jameson Taillon have each posted below league-average ERAs while struggling mightily to both miss bats and keep the ball in the yard. The same can be said about Shota Imanaga, who, despite posting a solid 3.12 ERA, has seen his strikeout percentage drop eight points from his rookie year and has given up 14 home runs in just 78 innings. And while 25-year-old Ben Brown actually leads the rotation in strikeout rate by a wide margin, he has been among the most ineffective starting pitchers in baseball this year with a 6.48 ERA and -1.7 WAR.
If not for the surprising excellence of 34-year-old Matthew Boyd, who has posted a 2.20 ERA en route to his first All-Star appearance, the Cubs' rotation may have already managed to cancel out their juggernaut offense. Giving him an effective running mate before the July 31 deadline is a must, and one name they have been frequently linked to is Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller. The 29-year-old Keller is currently in the midst of the best season of his career, posting a career-low 3.53 ERA that is backed up by a 3.42 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). Keller also excels at keeping the ball in the yard and generating ground balls at an above-average clip, a stark contrast to many members of the Cubs' current rotation.
Given the Pirates' need for MLB-ready offense and the Cubs' surplus of position player prospects, it seems reasonable that the two division rivals could line up on a deal. In a recent article in which he evaluated fan-submitted trade proposals, The Athletic’s Jim Bowden reasoned that a swap of Keller and reliever Caleb Ferguson for outfield prospects Owen Cassie and Kevin Alcántara could fit both teams' needs.
“This trade idea just makes too much sense for both sides,” Bowden wrote. “The Cubs get the starter they need and a usable southpaw for the bullpen. The Pirates add two outfield prospects who could help their lineup immediately.”
While both Keller and Ferguson, who has a 3.74 ERA on the season, can aid the Cubs' postseason push, the Pirates also fulfill their goal of adding major-league-ready bats. The 22-year-old Alcántara actually spent time in the majors last year and would likely have earned time this year if the Cubs did not acquire superstar Kyle Tucker in the offseason.
Though Alcántara has intriguing upside thanks to his combination of speed, power, and defense, the true prize of this package is Cassie, who currently ranks as MLB Pipeline’s 36th overall prospect. Like Alcántara, who ranks 76th on the list, Cassie likely would be in the majors with most other teams, as he has hit 20 home runs in just 81 Triple-A games with a terrific 12.8 BB% ratio. Both Cassie and Alcántara would finally be given the chance to play every day at the big-league level in Pittsburgh, making this deal a true win for all parties.
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