Kyle Tucker has had an up-and-down season for the Chicago Cubs.
Over his first 83 games, the 29-year-old outfielder looked like the caliber of player that could match the $500 million deal that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed with the Toronto Blue Jays in April.
But after a lackluster July, Tucker’s free agency outlook isn’t as straightforward as it once seemed. In a recent article on ESPN, Jeff Passan tries to make sense of Tucker’s season and even offers a contract prediction.
How much will Kyle Tucker get this winter?
Let’s use some numbers to explain Tucker’s rollercoaster season.
He posted a .931 OPS through the end of June, but in his first 26 games after the All-Star break, that fell to .572. The Cubs then gave Tucker three games off, hoping some rest would revitalize him.
Since then, he’s slashing .364/.462/.727 with an OPS of 1.189 over 12 games. With that in mind, Passan makes his free agency prediction on Tucker:
“So, yeah, the number is going to be big—likely in the $400 million range. The Philadelphia Phillies could desperately use a big corner outfield bat, particularly if [Kyle Schwarber] takes his talents elsewhere,” he writes. “The San Francisco Giants need a complement to Rafael Devers in the middle of the lineup. Others, including the Cubs, will be in the mix. The market will find Tucker, as it eventually does with the best players in every class.”
Passan also lists a comparable player—Mookie Betts, who signed a 12-year, $365 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers that began in his age-28 season. Passan notes that Tucker’s game isn’t particularly similar to Betts’, but few players produce at their level while maintaining low strikeout rates.
That’ll be enough to command Tucker a massive sum this offseason.